Early NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Joe Burrow vs. Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts vs. Patrick Mahomes, and More

My initial NFL Week 11 predictions for every game this week, including Joe Burrow vs. Lamar Jackson on TNF and Jalen Hurts vs. Patrick Mahomes on MNF.

As is weekly tradition, I give my initial picks for the coming week when the NFL betting lines reopen on Sunday night.

Week 10 featured a brutal prime-time slate, but we’re in for a treat in Week 11, with a Joe Burrow vs. Lamar Jackson showdown to kick things off Thursday night and a Super Bowl rematch featuring Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes to wrap up the week.

We have four teams on byes next week, meaning I have 14 games to give NFL picks for. So without further ado, here are my early NFL Week 11 predictions, picks against the spread, over/unders, and more.

NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks

All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds

  • Spread
    Ravens -3.5
  • Moneyline
    Bengals +158, Ravens -188
  • Total
    43.5

We go from Bryce Young vs. Tyson Bagent on Thursday Night Football to Burrow vs. Lamar. To call this an upgrade would be the understatement of the century.

These are two of the best defenses in the NFL that had really disappointing days on Sunday, with the Ravens and Bengals giving up 373 and 544 (!) yards, respectively, in losses as home favorites.

This Ravens defense has played Burrow really well in recent matchups and have homefield advantage on a short week. Look for bounce-back performances from both units.

Pick: Under 43.5

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers Odds

  • Spread
    Chargers -3.5
  • Moneyline
    Chargers -172, Packers +144
  • Total
    42.5

The Chargers shouldn’t be trusted as road favorites of more than a field goal. This Packers team might be bad, but they showed signs of life offensively against the Steelers with nearly 400 yards from scrimmage. Jordan Love continues to struggle and remains a concern, but he has a favorable matchup against a poor Chargers defense.

Pick: Packers +3.5

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

  • Spread
    Jaguars -6
  • Moneyline
    Titans +220, Jaguars -270
  • Total
    40.5

These two teams combined to score just nine points on Sunday, as neither got into the end zone in their blowout losses. Will Levis looked like a rookie, and Trevor Lawrence struggled mightily against the 49ers defense.

Right now, I don’t have a strong feel for this game, as this seems like a lot of points for a divisional game featuring Mike Vrabel as an underdog, but this could also be a nice bounce-back spot for the Jags defense.

If I had to go in any direction, I would take the points with the Titans.

Pick: Titans +6

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Odds

  • Spread
    Dolphins -9.5
  • Moneyline
    Raiders +380, Dolphins -480
  • Total
    47.5

The Dolphins against a bad team? Sign me up. The Dolphins are coming off their bye week and get to face an opponent they should win by double-digits against. With the Dolphins defense at full strength, I can’t see Aidan O’Connell keeping pace with this Miami offense. Give me the Dolphins laying nearly 10 points.

Pick: Dolphins -9.5

Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers Odds

  • Spread
    Cowboys -10
  • Moneyline
    Cowboys -550, Panthers +410
  • Total
    40.5

It’s really hard not to take Dallas here. Aside from that one loss to the Cardinals, they have dominated bad teams this season, and the Panthers are one of the two worst in the NFL. Playing on the road doesn’t scare me here, and it almost seems like we’re getting a discount because the Cowboys are playing away from Jerry World. This feels like a trap, but I can’t recommend taking the Panthers.

Pick: Cowboys -10

Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans Odds

  • Spread
    Texans -5.5
  • Moneyline
    Cardinals +200, Texans -245
  • Total
    48.5

C.J. Stroud had another brilliant performance today (besides the two fumbles), but Kyler Murray had a solid outing as well, especially given the circumstances of it being his first start in nearly a year.

MORE: NFL MVP Odds Update

The Cardinals are a much better team offensively with Murray and James Conner in the lineup, but my initial read is to take the Under, as facing the Texans defense on the road will be a much more difficult matchup for Arizona than taking on Atlanta’s defense at home.

Pick: Under 48.5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Odds

  • Spread
    Browns -4.5
  • Moneyline
    Steelers +180, Browns -215
  • Total
    38

Can the Steelers keep beating their opponents without outgaining them in yardage? It has to come to an end eventually, and it seems unlikely their offense will erupt against this Browns defense.

But this feels like a classic underdog spot for Mike Tomlin, especially with the Browns coming off a huge comeback win over the Ravens. I’m not asking them to win here, just to cover 4.5 points.

Pick: Steelers +4.5

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Odds

  • Spread
    Commanders -9.5
  • Moneyline
    Giants +360, Commanders -460
  • Total
    36.5

I know the Giants are bad right now, but they held the Commanders to seven points just a few weeks ago. Since then, the Commanders have been averaging 25.67 points per game, but this feels like far too many points.

If you can’t stomach backing the Giants, I can’t blame you, and I’m not even sure if I’m going to play this; it’s just my favorite bet for this game at the moment.

Pick: Giants +9.5

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Odds

  • Spread
    Lions -8.5
  • Moneyline
    Bears +330, Lions -420
  • Total
    45.5

Justin Fields might be making his return for this one, and if he does, I would anticipate the line to shift in the Bears’ direction. If this falls to eight or below, I would be more inclined to bet the Lions here. Jared Goff and his offense should feast at home against this Bears defense, even if they’re slightly improved with the addition of Montez Sweat.

Pick: Lions -8.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds

  • Spread
    49ers -10
  • Moneyline
    Buccaneers +385, 49ers -500
  • Total
    42.5

The 49ers returned to their dominant ways Sunday in their 34-3 win over the Jaguars, who were a trendy upset pick today. With Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams back in the lineup, San Francisco’s offense was completely healthy and reminiscent of the explosive unit we saw prior to their three-game losing streak.

The Bucs have lost four of their last five games and have struggled against playoff teams this season. The 49ers beat up on their inferior opponents when at full strength, and they appear to be getting back into a groove.

Pick: 49ers -10

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Odds

  • Spread
    Bills -7
  • Moneyline
    Jets +250, Bills -310
  • Total
    40.5

This is a rematch of the season opener on Monday Night Football in which the Jets pulled off the miraculous upset over the Bills despite Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending injury after just four snaps. This Jets defense has given Josh Allen fits dating back to last season, and even on the road, I don’t see that changing.

MORE: NFL Bye Weeks Schedule

Zach Wilson is obviously a concern here, but this Bills defense has been a bottom-three unit in the NFL for a few weeks now. We’re just asking New York to keep it within a touchdown.

Pick: Jets +7

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds

  • Spread
    Seahawks -1.5
  • Moneyline
    Seahawks -146, Rams +124
  • Total
    44

Who is playing quarterback for the Rams here? If it’s not Matthew Stafford, why is it such a short spread? Until we get more information, I’m going to pass on this game.

Pick: Pass

Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos Odds

  • Spread
    Broncos -1.5
  • Moneyline
    Vikings +112, Broncos -132
  • Total
    42.5

We haven’t seen the Broncos play yet this week, so it’s going to be tough to give a pick here. But, what has flown under the radar during this Josh Dobbs-sanity run in Minnesota is how impressive the Vikings defense has been under Brian Flores.

On the other side, the Broncos defense has been much improved since allowing 70 points to the Dolphins as well (I mean, it couldn’t get any worse). I’ll take the Under here for now.

Pick: Under 42.5

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds

  • Spread
    Chiefs -2.5
  • Moneyline
    Eagles +114, Vikings -134
  • Total
    47.5

A Super Bowl rematch between the two teams with the two best records on Monday Night Football — what a treat! When Mahomes is giving less than three points, it’s hard not to back him, as he is 20-6-1 ATS when the spread is less than a field goal.

Both teams are coming off their bye, but the Chiefs are the healthier team at the moment. As well as Hurts and A.J. Brown have been playing, this Chiefs defense is for real, and I’m worried about the Eagles’ secondary here.

Pick: Chiefs -2.5

Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.

Listen to the PFN Betting Podcast

Listen to the PFN Betting Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Betting Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms. Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review!

Related Articles