This will be one of the easiest NFL weather reports of the season for fantasy managers to digest for a couple of reasons.
- There are eight games in a dome or a stadium with a retractable roof on Sunday
- The weather for those games being played outdoors looks set to be mostly very nice
The only two games we are really worrying about this week are the Monday Night Football games in Buffalo and Cincinnati. Both could be impacted by rain, but even then, the impact on the games should be low. There is a little bit of fantasy nuance to some of the games this week that we have broken down below.
Let’s examine the latest weather forecast for the NFL games this week and see what fantasy impact there may be across the league.
What is the Fantast Impact of the Week 3 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 3 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated.
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Low 80s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5 mph northeasterly
When the biggest complaint in a game of football is that it might be a little too warm, then really, we have perfect conditions. In terms of fantasy scoring, games with a temperature between 80-90 Fahrenheit have come second in PPR fantasy points per game only to games with a temperature at the kickoff of 90-100 Fahrenheit.
Similarly, a wind speed of 5-9 mph results in an average of 95 PPR fantasy points per game, an average of 234.8 passing yards per game, and 112.6 rushing yards per game. What is there not to like here from a fantasy perspective, other than the play of the two quarterbacks in recent years?
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3 mph southeasterly
You can pretty much take everything we said above and copy and paste it here. The slight difference in this matchup is that the temperature is just below that 80 Fahrenheit mark. Historically, games with a kickoff temp between 70-80 Fahrenheit have slightly lower PPR fantasy points per game, but you are talking about two points, so essentially negligible and not worth worrying about.
#JustinHerbert
Week 2 mild right high sprain@PatrickMahomes played thru to win #SBLVII
Expecting @chargers QB to try pic.twitter.com/1612PG9EfR— David J. Chao – ProFootballDoc (@ProFootballDoc) September 21, 2024
The biggest concern here is the QB position for both teams. Justin Fields is hardly the most reliable performer for fantasy points, and we have no idea about the health of Justin Herbert.
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 80s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 7 mph northerly
This matchup in Tampa Bay is almost exactly the same as the two that came before it. Nice temperatures are conducive to fantasy points being scored, and there are clear skies and very little wind. On average, games with these conditions see around 95 fantasy points being scored in PPR scoring.
The Buccaneers’ biggest concern has been a strong Denver defense. However, they had their problems when tested at times in Week 1 and could be vulnerable to the Tampa Bay offense. For Denver, the concern is the play of Bo Nix, pushing down the value of every player on this offense.
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 80s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6 mph westerly
The temperature, clear skies, and lack of wind at kickoff in Tennessee for Week 3 are the same again. Both the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers should have little concern over the weather at kickoff. However, there is around a 20-25% chance we see some rain during the second half.
That could depress fantasy scoring in the second half. Games with rain at kickoff historically see around a 10-point reduction in PPR fantasy scoring on average, with the passing game seeing a decrease by around 30 yards per game but with a 10-yards-per-game increase in the rushing game. That impact should be mitigated by the fact the rain will only impact a portion of the game, so there is nothing to be too worried about here from a fantasy perspective.
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Mid-60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3 mph southwesterly
Unsurprisingly, the game in Seattle is currently projected to be the coldest game of the day, but temperatures will still be in the 65 Fahrenheit region at kickoff and throughout the game. There is very little change in the fantasy output of a game played in 60-70 Fahrenheit temperatures, so there is nothing for fantasy managers to be concerned about here other than Skylar Thompson’s ability to get the ball to Tyreek Hill.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills | Monday, 7:30 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 60s
- Showers: 50% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 7 mph southerly
We finally have a game where there might be some adverse weather conditions at kickoff, but even that comes with mitigation. That mitigation comes from the fact we are still more than 48 hours from kickoff in Buffalo and things could change significantly in that time period. Right now, we are looking at the potential for rain throughout the game, which could have a major fantasy impact.
Rain, in general, is not as good for fantasy point production as clear skies, but that part is hardly going to surprise you. On average, we have seen 84.78 PPR fantasy points per game scored when the game kicked off in the rain, compared to 94.52 PPR fantasy points per game when kickoff is under clear skies.
Now, what we do have is a measure of “how much it is raining” in our database. That is a more subjective element than any of the other weather factors, but might actually be the most important in some ways. We have all seen games played in heavy rain, and games played in light rain. The heavy rain tends to have a bigger impact on the naked eye than the light rain.
Now for the good news. Games played in the rain with wind speeds below 10 mph have averaged 88.52 PPR fantasy points per game, which is significantly above games played in the rain, accompanied by winds above 15 mph.
The ultimate takeaway here is that this game could see a little bit of impact from the rain. The conditions should favor the likes of James Cook and Travis Etienne, as run games get a bit of a boost while slightly depressing passing games. However, in both cases, you are talking about a 10% differential either way.
The only time to take this weather into account for your decision-making is if you have a 50-50 call at WR and are not sure what to do. In that scenario, it might make sense to lean away from the Jaguars and Bills players in Week 3.
Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals | Monday, 8:15 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Low 80s
- Showers: 25% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3 mph southerly
As the saying goes, you wait all of Sunday for one game with rain at kickoff, and you get two on Monday (or something like that). Essentially, everything we just learned for the Buffalo-Jacksonville game applies here. The rain is accompanied by nice temperatures and with little to no wind impact. Ultimately, that should not have a detrimental impact on fantasy options.
To summarize what I said above:
- Games with rain see around 10 PPR fantasy points per game less than clear skies on average.
- Games with rain and no wind are better than games with rain and wind by at least five PPR fantasy points per game.
- Games with rain see a less than 10% decrease in passing yards and a less than 10% increase in rushing yards.
As we said above, if you have a 50-50 decision that involves a WR in this game, the weather could make you lean elsewhere. However, it would need to be a true 50-50 decision. If you are even 55-45 in favor of the Bengals or Commanders player, you should still use them.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
- Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, 8:20 p.m.