After beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11, the Broncos got more good news heading into their Week 12 bye week. Cornerback Pat Surtain II is expected to be back by the start of Week 13. It’s the expected timetable the Broncos had all along, and it’s good news specifically for the matchup against the Washington Commanders. More on this below.
Assessing Pat Surtain II’s Return
ESPN‘s Jeremy Fowler first reported the news that Surtain II, No. 4 in PFSN’s CB Impact Score, is expected back by the start of Week 13.
“Broncos are optimistic that LB Alex Singleton and CB Patrick Surtain can make it back into the lineup Week 12 (post bye). Singleton, who on Nov. 7 underwent surgery to have a cancerous tumor removed from one of his testicles, has received encouraging results post-surgery. Multiple sources say he’s not a lock for Nov. 30 return vs Commanders but is trending that way as of now. Surtain (pectoral) has been out since Week 8, but Week 12 has been the target,” Fowler wrote on Twitter.
In a nutshell, Surtain II’s return means the Broncos’ already-high blitz rate is going up. You don’t know what that means, so let me explain. Because Surtain II is a shutdown cornerback, Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can remove resources from the former’s side of the field. The latter can run a cat-and-mouse game of Cover 6, Cover 1 man coverage, and Cover 3 zone coverage.
In Cover 6, the field is split between Cover 2 and Cover 4. Surtain II’s side would be the Cover 2 side with the strong safety. The strong safety takes the tight end, while the nickel cornerback is in man coverage on the slot wide receiver. On the other side of the field, though, both backers act like boundary cornerbacks in straight Cover 4, then the boundary cornerback and full safety act as the two safeties.
In Cover 1 man coverage, one of the backers, assuming nickel defense, is crashing down. That creates five pass rushers and individual matchups across the defensive line as opposed to double-teaming the best defensive linemen.
In Cover 3 zone coverage, defenses are presenting the look of Cover 1 man coverage. There’s a single high safety for both defenses. The quarterback has to make the right decision in a split second. If he guesses wrong, it’s twofold. He’ll get rid of the ball too soon if he thinks Cover 1 is Cover 3. Or he’ll end up taking a sack if he thinks Cover 3 is Cover 1. It’s a cat-and-mouse game inside a cat-and-mouse game.
Surtain II’s return means flexibility for Joseph. Riley Moss, the second starting boundary cornerback, is getting better as well, ranking No. 26 in PFSN’s CB Impact Score. Teams with two above-replacement-level wide receivers can’t key in on a Broncos cornerback with Surtain II back on the field opposite Moss.
That would be Week 13’s matchup vs. the Washington Commanders, the Green Bay Packers in Week 15, the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16, and the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18. Surtain II is back in the nick of time.
