The Denver Broncos downed the Washington Commanders 27-26 in overtime in Week 13. The win extends the Broncos’ winning streak to nine games. That said, the Broncos are idle in the Power Rankings, while teams such as the Houston Texans and New England Patriots moved into the top 10. The question becomes, are the Broncos the best team in the AFC with so many teams breathing down their neck?
The Broncos Are Ranked the Top Team in the AFC in the Power Rankings
Should the Broncos have moved up the Power Rankings? Denver defeated the Commanders in Week 13, but it was by just one point. That said, teams won’t play in overtime every week. So, you can say the Broncos’ defense was stout in four quarters, allowing 20 points. Then the Denver defense was tired in overtime, allowing a touchdown to put the outcome of the game on the backdrop of a two-point conversion attempt that EDGE Nik Bonitto — No. 20 in PFSN’s EDGE Impact Score — deflected.
The Texans, meanwhile, jumped 11 spots in the Power Rankings after defeating the Indianapolis Colts 20-16. And the Patriots moved up one slot after a win over the New York Giants on “Monday Night Football.” Circling back to the Broncos, though, PFSN’s Jacob Infante explained his decision to keep Denver idle.
“On their current nine-game winning streak, seven of those wins have come by one possession. There have been some close calls against inferior competition, such as the Jets, Giants, Raiders, and now the Commanders. That said, they keep finding a way to win games, and their wins against better teams like the Chiefs, Eagles, and Texans are enough to show that they’re legit,” Infante wrote.
The Broncos matched up better against the Chiefs, Eagles, and Texans. So, Denver got the wins against the three respective teams. Close games are just how the Broncos play football. It’s no different than Pete Carroll’s Seattle Seahawks or Bill O’Brien’s Houston Texans. Weekly gameplan: Keep it close until the fourth quarter and let the franchise quarterback win it. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has six game-winning drives this season.
Even if you regress the one-possession games to the mean, the Broncos would total a 6-6, or 7-5, record through 12 games. And the Broncos are the odds-on favorite in three of their last five games, with two coin flips. That would put the Broncos at a winning record at worst. This might not be the best team in the AFC, but this is a playoff team for sure — with applied regression to the mean.