The Denver Broncos beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 and improved to 9-2. Because of the Indianapolis Colts’ bye, the win tied the Broncos with the Patriots atop the AFC Conference. While the two teams don’t play each other in 2025, the Broncos are ahead of the Patriots because the former has a better conference record. That said, everyone isn’t a believer in the Broncos’ bid for the No. 1 seed., most notably the league’s official website. More on this below.
Why the Broncos Will Secure the No. 1 Seed
NFL.com’s Ali Bhanpuri published a long-form article on Tuesday. In it, he looked at the postseason probabilities for each team heading into Week 12. When talking about the Broncos, Bhanpuri pointed out an early-season loss to the aforementioned Colts and that Denver has a tougher schedule after a Week 12 bye.
“In holding off the hard-charging Chiefs, Denver not only widened its lead in the AFC West (more on that below) but moved to No. 1 in the conference standings. … For one week, at least. The Broncos still have just a one in four chance of retaining their lead, per the model, in part because they lost to the Colts (8-2) earlier this year, but also because they’ll face far tougher opponents the rest of the way than New England (9-2) will,” Bhanpuri wrote.
Full stop. Hot take: the Broncos don’t face tougher opponents than the Patriots — and the Colts — the rest of the season. Let’s take a look.
Denver is favored in every game after their Week 12 bye week, according to PFSN Analytics. While models vary from site to site, statistics baked into the model don’t play favorites. The Broncos are looking at a 13-4 record at worst, and — based on tiebreakers — that should be enough for the Broncos to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference. Now, let’s look at the Patriots’ remaining schedule.
Unlike the Broncos, the Patriots are underdogs in two of their remaining games the rest of the season. Based on the Patriots’ opponents in the two games they’re underdogs in, it’s likely the Broncos edge them in conference record as well, meaning the latter would be the No. 1 seed if both teams — and not the Colts — finish with the same record.
For what it’s worth, here is the Colts’ remaining schedule.
Although the Colts just had a bye, they have two losses just like the Broncos and Patriots. Every team will play 17 games by the end of the season. Since the Colts beat the Broncos, the latter would need a three-way tie to finish atop the AFC Conference. Or the Colts can lose three of their next seven games. That said, the Colts are underdogs in two games and have three coinflips as well. But we can all agree the AFC Conference is going to be fun to watch down the stretch.
Elsewhere, the Broncos are looking forward to having Pat Surtain II back in Week 13, No. 4 in PFSN’s CB Impact Score. The Broncos are on a bye in Week 12.
