The Denver Broncos play the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11. The matchup is a litmus test for quarterback Bo Nix. And the result will significantly impact the division race. More on that later. For now, though, the 8-2 Broncos ride a seven-game winning streak into Week 11 against the 5-4 Chiefs, who are coming off a bye. Broncos’ defensive coordinator Vance Joseph chimed in on the matchup.
Vance Joseph on Going Back To Scout Opponents
Joseph talked to the media on Thursday. He addressed scouting past games to prepare for upcoming matchups, among other things.
Joseph said, “I take each game by the month at a time. I’m looking at what I’ve done over the last month also, and he has to do that also. Teams do change. [CB] Pat [Surtain II] hadn’t played in two weeks, so what are we doing without Pat? So that’s Andy’s concern also. It goes both ways. That’s why I don’t go back too much on certain opponents obviously, because it matters what happened in the last month.”
For reference, the Broncos’ defense held the Chiefs to less than 17 points the first time they played last season. The Chiefs played backups in their second matchup against the Broncos in 2024. Joseph continued, though.
“So I’m checking my numbers all the time as far as what I’m doing on certain downs and distances versus what, and versus what formation and personnels so I’m keeping Andy kind of guessing also.”
Joseph should be able to get away with running primarily man coverage defense against the Chiefs this week. The Chiefs’ No. 1 pass catcher plays primarily in the slot. Teams don’t double-team slot wide receivers. Ja’Quan McMillian, meanwhile, is No. 65 in PFSN’s CB Impact Score. For reference, there are 96 starting cornerbacks in the league as most offenses play out of 11 personnel — one running back, one tight end — more than 50% of the time.
If Joseph sits in man coverage, and rushes five or more, it’s a matter of when — not if — the pass rushers get to QB Patrick Mahomes. This is the x factor in the matchup.
That said, Week 11 is paramount for the 8-2 Broncos and the 5-4 Chiefs. If the Chiefs win in Week 11, Kansas City’s odds to win the division jump to 20%. And the Chiefs’ odds to make the playoffs jump to 72.1%. The Broncos, meanwhile, would drop down to 42.9% to win the division and 91.3% to make the playoffs.
