It almost seems unfair that, with their season on the line, the Dallas Cowboys face a gauntlet of an upcoming schedule: against Philadelphia, against Kansas City, and at Detroit. This is, however, the position that Dallas has put itself in with a slow start to the season, sitting at 4-5-1. The schedule clears up nicely for their final four games to finish the season, but there’s no room for error if they wish to sneak into the playoffs.
Where the Cowboys Stand
The Cowboys sit at 10th in the NFC, three-and-a-half games behind the 49ers for the final Wild Card spot. The Eagles are running away with the division at 8-2, but should an upset occur in Week 12, an outside chance to steal it remains. As things stand now, the Cowboys have a 6% chance of making the postseason, a number that could double with a win. Should the Eagles win, they’ll virtually lock up the division.
Anyway you chop it up, the Cowboys need at least a 6-1 finish just to have a reasonable shot at the postseason. That would put them at 10-6-1, but that’d still require two of the Packers, 49ers, or Lions to finish with less than 11 wins. You can play with the exact matchups the rest of the season with PFSN’s Playoff Predictor.
An outside chance it may be, it’ll take Dallas winning two of their upcoming three games against teams with championship aspirations. It’s hard to get a feel for how the defense looks now with Quinnen Williams based on one game against Las Vegas, but the early returns were quite promising. If this pass game continues its momentum, and the defense improves at all from near worst in the league, then a winning streak isn’t out of the question.
The Eagles, Chiefs, and Lions Have Shown Weaknesses
Philadelphia is beating itself from within. A locker room holding on by a thread due to their on-field success, it feels like getting hit in the mouth first could set off a larger chain reaction. The Cowboys nearly beat the Eagles in the season opener, so this game is well within reach as well.
Kansas City sits shockingly at 5-5 and just outside the AFC playoff picture. Their defense has regressed, their offense can’t find an identity, and they, too, are now fighting for a playoff spot. Luckily, this game is at home for Dallas, avoiding a brutal crowd and potential weather game.
The Chiefs can’t run the ball effectively, so we’re looking at a Patrick Mahomes versus Dak Prescott shootout. That seems like a huge mountain to climb, but the Cowboys very well may boast the better line and certainly the better weaponry.
Detroit is also in a similar spot as Dallas and Kansas City. Not so unexpectedly, the NFC North has been a gauntlet itself, and the Lions are muddled together in the mess of a playoff picture. The Lions remain an offensive threat and sound defensive team, but they haven’t boasted the same efficiency without offensive coordinator Ben Johnson or All-Pro center Frank Ragnow.
This could be the game for the season if Dallas drops either of their previous two matchups. A Dallas win would not only close the gap between the two but would give them the tiebreaker should a final spot come down between them. With the Cowboys’ tie, it’s unlikely these two would finish with the same record anyhow, but the importance of this game remains.
The following games include a struggling young quarterback against Minnesota, a floundering and injury-riddled Chargers, and two divisional matchups against Washington and New York, both of which have bottom-five defenses. If Dallas can run the table in their next three games, the final lineup of matches will seem far more favorable.
Down, but not out. Dallas still has a chance at postseason glory in head coach Brian Schottenheimer’s first season in the role. An impressive comeback all starts this Sunday against their arch-rivals.
