The Carolina Panthers (5-5) and Atlanta Falcons (3-6) meet again, this time at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Carolina dominated the first matchup with a 30-0 shutout in Week 3 at Bank of America Stadium.
Both teams now face very different circumstances than expected.
Tale of the Tape: Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
In Week 3, the Falcons, fresh off a 22-6 primetime road win over Minnesota, faced a winless, desperate Panthers team in Charlotte.
After that loss, the Falcons won two at home, climbing to 3-2 before a four-game skid. They now return home from an overtime defeat to Indianapolis in Berlin.
The Panthers lost to New England in Week 4 before recording a three-game winning streak from Weeks 5-7. Since then, they’ve alternated wins and losses, reflecting an up-and-down season.
Carolina also lost starting OLB Pat Jones II (back) for the duration of the season following the Week 5 win against the Dallas Cowboys. Jones II’s absence has forced adjustments in the Panthers’ linebacker rotation and impacted their ability to defend the outside run.
Carolina’s offense has averaged 11.25 points over the last four games, yet managed a 2-2 record. The Falcons have lost their last two games by a combined seven points to New England (8-2) and Indianapolis (8-2).
Despite these twists, one team will likely win this divisional rematch Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST.
How the Panthers Can Win in Week 11
Another change from the first meeting is Panthers’ running back Rico Dowdle’s recent surge. In Week 3, Chuba Hubbard handled most of the carries.
Dowdle has the most rushing yards (788) of any NFC running back, as we head into the Sunday slate of Week 11 games. He is third overall in the NFL. Coincidentally, Dowdle also ranks third among all qualifiers in PFSN’s RBi metric with an impressive 86.2 score.
Look for Hubbard to be more involved this week than his eight combined carries from the last two games.
The offense’s game plan should focus on exploiting Atlanta’s No. 29 rush defense. Atlanta ranks 28th in rushing EPA per play (+0.06), 31st in rushing yards after contact per attempt (3.98), and 21st in 10+ yard rushes allowed (33).
Atlanta’s pass defense is strong, allowing just 162.3 yards per game. They primarily employ nickel personnel, switching between Cover 1 and Cover 3, and frequently use man coverage.
Carolina can’t fully ignore the pass game; they must pass efficiently to keep Atlanta guessing. Rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan may move inside more for mismatches and to avoid cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. (88.5 PFSN CBi score).
Defensively, Carolina must make tackles outside the tackles, where Atlanta runs 71.8% of their rushing plays.
Rookie OLB Nic Scourton, filling in for Jones II, aims to continue generating pressure. He, Tershawn Wharton (No. 10 in PFSN’s DTi rankings), and Derrick Brown lead the front, with safety Tre’von Moehrig again lining up everywhere.
Disrupting Atlanta QB Michael Penix Jr. is crucial. His completion rate drops from 67.7% with no pressure to 35.2% under pressure.
How the Panthers Can Lose Week 11
Turnovers are key. Atlanta is tied for eighth in the NFL with a +5 margin; Carolina is tied for 26th at -5.
Bryce Young must avoid turnovers, as one or two could decide the outcome. Atlanta’s 45.7% blitz rate is the league’s highest and is designed to force mistakes.
Limiting big plays is crucial for Carolina’s defense. Atlanta rarely throws deep (26 attempts of 20+ air yards, 23.1% complete), but will test the third level with Darnell Mooney or Drake London when in rhythm.
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Carolina faces a tough task stopping the Falcons’ backfield duo of Bijan Robinson (83.4 PFSN RBiscore) and Tyler Allgeier, who scored twice last week. Robinson hasn’t scored since Week 7.
Final Prediction
This will be a close game. Atlanta is ready for a breakthrough, while Carolina rebounds from a tough loss and seeks to quiet the criticism after Week 10.
Final score: 17-16 Carolina