NFL Prop Bets Week 11: Best bets and futures to target this week

Week 11 is set up to be another super week in the NFL, and with entertaining football comes the opportunity to potentially exploit the prop bet and futures markets. Each week, our NFL betting team will be providing you with our favorite prop bets to help win you some cash. This article will break down various angles through all of Sunday and Monday’s games, as we continuously update our selections as more US bookmakers lines become available. We will also kick off the article with some potential NFL futures bets that may offer value right now.

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Week 11 begins on Thursday Night Football, as the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals clash in a battle that will hand one of them the opportunity to take control of the NFC West. The end of the week could end up being the best Monday Night Football game of the season as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Los Angeles Rams in a repeat of one of the games of the season from 2019. Let’s dive into some of our favorite NFL prop bets for Week 11 of the season, but first, let’s look at the futures bets which stand out as we enter the second half of the season.

NFL Futures Bets

Should you hedge when it comes to your NFC South NFL futures bet?

If you followed my advice and took the Saints at a plus price a couple of weeks back (on RF365), then you should be feeling somewhat good about your choice. The Saints are now -305, having smoked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football in Week 9.

However, entering Week 11 of the NFL season, there are many concerns surrounding when we might see Drew Brees on the field again. (For those of you who took the Drew Brees to get injured prop bet before the NFL season started, it took until Week 10, but the money should now be safely in your account.)

Related | NFL Week 11 Picks, Predictions: Opening betting lines, odds, and scores

That uncertainty presents an opportunity to hedge and grab the Buccaneers at odds of +200, who are just half a game behind the Saints, although they need to overcome the Saints, who have beaten them in both of their games this season. The Falcons and Panthers are not coming back to take this division; grabbing the Buccaneers now on top of your Saints ticket from two weeks ago locks in a profit on the NFC South.

Week 11 Sunday Prop Bets

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns | Sunday, November 22nd, 1:00 PM

Can Kareem Hunt keep rolling?

The return of Nick Chubb in Week 10 threw concern around the role of Hunt going forward. However, Hunt managed to put up his best performance of the season, rushing for 104 yards on 19 carries. Chubb and Hunt dovetail nicely together, which is why his Week 11 rushing line is one of my favorite prop bets to consider this week. Hunt has rushed for over 60 yards in seven of his nine games this season, so getting +100 on a rushing yardage line of 56.5 seems too good to be true.

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team | Sunday, November 22nd, 1:00 PM

JD McKissic is a crucial part of the Washington passing offense

In the last two weeks, JD McKissic has been targetted a whopping 29 times, pulling in 16 for 108 yards. Throughout the season, he has gone over 40 yards receiving on five occasions, all within the past six weeks. Alex Smith has been using him as a huge part of the offense, and a line of 37.5 receiving yards seems too low, making it one of my favorite Week 11 prop bets.

Related | Week 11 DraftKings Picks: NFL DFS lineup advice for fantasy cash games

Given those numbers for McKissic in terms of targets and receptions, his current line of over 4.5 receptions seems far too low. That is somewhat reflected in the odds, which are around -140, but with 29 targets in the last two weeks, I am taking the hit on the juice and adding this to my list of Week 11 NFL prop bets to consider.

Logan Thomas has a wonderful matchup in Week 11

Thomas has been a favorite play of mine all season, both in terms of fantasy and betting. In fact, in all my fantasy leagues, I have tied up a lot of proverbial futures bets in Thomas and his NFL future. The TE has been a regular target this season and has pulled in 14 catches in the past four weeks. With that being an average of 3.5 receptions per game, give me the available plus odds on the over 3.5 receptions this week as another consideration for my Week 11 prop bets.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings | Sunday, November 22nd, 4:25 PM

Michael Gallup has been force-fed targets in the last two games

After seeing just 17 targets between Week 4 and 7, Michael Gallup saw a total of 19 targets in the two games leading into the bye. The Cowboys seem to have made a concerted effort to go back to him, and I expect that to continue going out of the bye. In those two games, he has 10 receptions, so another one of my NFL Week 11 prop bet considerations is Gallup over 3.5 receptions at nice odds of +110 in some places.  

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday, November 22nd, 8:15 PM

The Buccaneers will force Jared Goff to beat them

The Rams run game has been a major weapon this season, but against a stout Buccaneers run defense, that could be a tough assignment. The Buccaneers allow the lowest amount of rushing yards, on the second-fewest rushing attempts, with the lowest yards per attempt mark. While the Rams have generally tried to limit Goff’s exposure this season, they have opened the playbook up more in the last two weeks. With such a tough matchup for the run game, look for Goff over 25.5 pass completions are another juicy option for your Week 11 NFL prop bets.

Week 11 Teaser

If NFL prop bets and futures aren’t your things, then Week 11 has some obvious teaser options. The first is to take the Pittsburgh Steelers down to -4 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars offense should not be able to move the ball against the Steelers this week, be that through the air or on the ground. The Steelers just finished stifling the Bengals, but I do not like taking a team giving 10 points in back to back weeks, making the tease the best option here. With the line being 10, a potential tease down to a pick as part of a three-legged teaser is also in play.

The Chargers are also a prime teaser candidate this week, with the opportunity to tease them through a lot of significant numbers (three, six, seven, and eight). With their matchup with the Jets, they should be able to get a comfortable third win on the board.

The Packers being a two-point underdog is a third potential option, taking their line up to eight. Their line could also go up to 12 as the second part of the three-legged 10-point teaser. Our Thursday Night Football game between the Cardinals and Seahawks makes for an excellent third leg, taking the Cardinals up to 13 points against a Seahawks defense that has been unable to stop any offenses this season.

Week 11 Thursday Night Football

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks | Thursday, November 19th, 8:20 PM

Kyler Murray is set for another big day against the Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks allow the most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks at over 350 yards per game and the fifth most per attempt at 7.5. The last time these two teams faced off, Murray threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns and should be more than capable of coming close to matching that number. Given those two statistics, Murray’s passing yards line of 280.5 seems too low and an excellent way to kick off our picks for NFL prop bets in Week 11.

Murray also likes to use his legs a lot

Throughout the 2020 season, Kyler Murray is averaging 6.9 rushing yards per attempt and 67.1 rushing yards per game. He has topped 60 rushing yards seven times this season, including each of his last four games. His Week 11 prop bet line of 57.5 rushing yards may seem high for a QB in the NFL, but for Murray, that line still seems too low, given he has been the primary source of rushing offense for this team.

Are the Arizona Cardinals one of the best value NFL futures bets right now?

Over the past few weeks, we have been on the right side of some futures bets when it comes to predicting the line movement in two of the NFL’s most tightly contest divisions. This week, our attention to turn to the Thursday Night Football clash between the Cardinals and Seahawks. As it stands, the Seahawks still have the best odds to win the NFC West, although, at +155, that is understandably the worst priced favorite when it comes to NFL division futures bet right now.

In Week 11, the Arizona Cardinals have a chance to put their stamp on the division. A win this week would put them in essence 1.5 games in front of the Seahawks, due to having the tiebreaker on a 2-0 season sweep, with a Sunday Night Football victory already in the bag.

At +200, the Cardinals are one of the best value NFL bets, with two games also coming up against the Los Angeles Rams and an opportunity to take a firm grip on the division. Equally at +1000, their odds to make the Super Bowl look enticing as the sixth-best team in the conference in terms of their odds. If you feel incredibly bold, +2200 odds are on the table for them to go all the way to a Super Bowl victory.