NFL Week 16 Predictions, Picks Including Lock and Upset of the Week

Week 16 is here, and it’s rife with playoff implications. Of the 16 games on this week’s schedule, all but three involve teams with realistic postseason paths. We break them all down in our NFL Week 16 predictions and picks.

All lines are as of Wednesday and courtesy of Caesars.

NFL Predictions: Lock of the Week

Betting line
49ers -7; 49ers -345, Commanders +270; O/U 39

The 49ers are an absolute machine, regardless of who’s at quarterback. With seven straight wins, they’re the hottest team in the NFL, and it’s not like they’re beating up on patsies.

Four of those seven games have come against playoff-caliber teams, including an eight-point victory over Seattle in Week 15.

MORE: Commanders vs. 49ers Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Week 16

The general assumption was that San Francisco’s Super Bowl hopes went poof when Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a season-ending foot injury, but that seemingly needs revision. Brock Purdy ranks 11th in EPA+CPOE since Week 13 — ahead of the likes of Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers.

Taylor Heinicke, meanwhile, has not had that same level of success — prompting coach Ron Rivera to raise the possibility of switching back to Carson Wentz if things don’t improve. We can’t think of a better development for a Niners defense that ranks fourth in passer rating allowed (79.8).

Adam Beasley: 49ers 26, Commanders 14
Dalton Miller: 49ers 27, Commanders 16
Dallas Robinson: 49ers 26, Commanders 17

NFL Predictions: Upset of the Week

Betting line
Steelers -3; Steelers -155, Raiders +130; O/U 39.5

Mike Tomlin is somehow both widely respected and still underrated. You can count on one hand the number of coaches who consistently maximize the talent of their roster, and Tomlin is near, if not at the top of that list.

The Steelers (6-8) won’t make the playoffs this year, but the fact that they’re still mathematically alive entering Week 16 despite ranking 27th in point differential and 28th in both yards per play and net points per drive is astounding.

But let’s be clear: They’re a very limited roster and shouldn’t be getting points against a better Las Vegas Raiders team.

Las Vegas has won four out of five games and could have a real shot at getting into the dance by winning out.

Josh Jacobs might find the sledding tough against the NFL’s No. 6 run defense by average, but the matchup is far more favorable for Derek Carr and Davante Adams. Only four teams allow more yards per pass (7.2) than Pittsburgh.

Adam Beasley: Raiders 20, Steelers 19
Dalton Miller: Steelers 24, Raiders 22
Dallas Robinson: Raiders 23, Steelers 21

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets

Betting line
Pick ’em; Jets -110, Jaguars -110; O/U 37.5

The New York Jets are in a freefall, and — surprise, surprise — their offense is the reason why. In New York’s seven wins, Gang Green has scored 189 points. In their seven losses, the Jets have managed just 92. That latter figure includes just 51 total points in New York’s last three games — all losses.

If there’s a silver lining to this, all of the Jets’ losses this year have come against teams currently .500 or better. So that would suggest good things Thursday against the Jaguars, who, even after wins in three of their last four, are still under .500.

But sub-.500 might be good enough to win the AFC South, the way the Tennessee Titans are nosediving. Entering Thursday’s action, the Jaguars have a 43% chance to reach the postseason. Trevor Lawrence has keyed Jacksonville’s turnaround. Since Week 9, Lawrence has thrown 13 touchdowns to just one interception. He ranks third in EPA+CPOE among quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps during that stretch (.157).

— Adam H. Beasley

Adam Beasley: Jets 21, Jaguars 17
Dalton Miller: Jaguars 25, Jets 20
Dallas Robinson: Jaguars 23, Jets 20

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers

Betting line
Lions -2.5; Lions -135, Panthers +115; O/U 44

The 2022 NFL season has come in waves for fans of many franchises. The Detroit Lions were 1-6 at Halloween, and the Carolina Panthers fired Matt Rhule after starting 1-4. Now, the Lions have rattled off six wins in their last seven games and are firmly in the NFC Wild Card hunt. Meanwhile, the Panthers are still in NFC South title contention because nobody in the Southern United States wants to win any division.

Three of Carolina’s five wins this season have come inside their own division. They surprised us with a victory over the Seattle Seahawks two weeks ago but lost to a Mitch Trubisky-led Steelers team just one week ago. Conversely, Football Outsiders ranks the Lions as the league’s fourth-most efficient team in the league since their streak started, with their defense finally complementing what has been a good offense all season.

Although it feels insane to say a five-win team heading into their 15th game doesn’t need to win this game more than the seven-win team to make the playoffs, there’s truth to that statement. However, it would mean that Tampa Bay must lose another game aside from their matchup with Carolina next week.

Detroit simply seems a bit too strong at the moment.

— Dalton Miller

Adam Beasley: Lions 24, Panthers 21
Dalton Miller: Lions 30, Panthers 23
Dallas Robinson: Lions 29, Panthers 21

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

Betting line
Titans -5; Titans -240, Texans +196; O/U 37

The Houston Texans have played some shockingly impressive football over the past two weeks. They took Dallas down to the wire two weeks ago, and, despite facing an incredibly efficient Patrick Mahomes a week ago, they took Kansas City to overtime.

Now, they’ll face a reeling Tennessee Titans team whose defense has looked lost during the back half of the season, and an offense that can’t seem to get out of its own way. With the Jaguars breathing down the Titans’ necks, could Tennessee leak a game away to the worst team in the NFL?

They shouldn’t. Even with their lackluster form recently, Vegas has them as seven-point favorites at home against the hapless Texans. And even though Houston has made somewhat of a habit of keeping games close for a while, Tennessee should be able to prevail in the end.

— Dalton Miller

Adam Beasley: Titans 22, Texans 16
Dalton Miller: Titans 19, Texans 15
Dallas Robinson: Titans 20, Texans 16

Buffalo Bills vs. Chicago Bears

Betting line
Bills -8.5; Bills -440, Bears +335; OU 40

Buffalo is back to their winning ways. The Bills rattled off five straight wins in their pursuit of the top seed in the AFC, beating four playoff-hopeful teams in a row, including three divisional opponents.

Losing Von Miller hurt situationally, but the Bills were built well on the defensive front before his arrival, and getting Tre’Davious White back has been a boost to the secondary, which has battled injuries all season. Josh Allen remains one of the most unfair chess pieces in the NFL. And even though it’s been sporadic, James Cook has come on as of late.

Justin Fields is another incredible weapon, albeit different from Allen. Fields is a more athletic version of what Allen could have been early in his career had Buffalo used him to his full capabilities on the ground. But the Bears simply don’t have the talent to contend with Buffalo for 60 minutes.

— Dalton Miller

Adam Beasley: Bills 26, Bears 15
Dalton Miller: Bills 30, Bears 20
Dallas Robinson: Bills 26, Bears 16

Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Betting line
Chiefs -9.5; Chiefs -480, Seahawks +360; O/U 48.5

Seattle isn’t desperate yet, but they do find themselves on the outside looking in at the NFC playoff race. After looking like a shoo-in for the playoffs, they’ve lost four of their last five games, with their defense being the main culprit along the way.

That’s bad news considering who they face on Saturday. The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL, and it’s not particularly close. Patrick Mahomes is still the best player on the planet, and Travis Kelce is about as reliable as a Toyota Hilux.

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Geno Smith has proven to be a quality option for Seattle. He appears to be a somewhat long-term solution for them at QB. But he’ll need to go toe-to-toe with Mahomes in an offensive slugfest to win this game if his defense continues to play as poorly as they have recently. Unfortunately, that’s easier said than done without Tyler Lockett on the field.

— Dalton Miller

Adam Beasley: Chiefs 29, Seahawks 21
Dalton Miller: Chiefs 34, Seahawks 28
Dallas Robinson: Chiefs 34, Seahawks 24

Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens

Betting line
Ravens -7.5; Ravens -365, Falcons +285; O/U 37.5

The Ravens will look to get back on track after scoring just three points against the Browns in Week 15, and their outlook will be much improved if Lamar Jackson can return from a knee injury. Backup quarterback Tyler Huntley can run Baltimore’s offense, but he’s nowhere near as accurate or as dynamic as Lamar.

Baltimore made far too many mistakes against Cleveland, including a red-zone interception, a blocked and a missed field goal, and a fourth-down stop at the Browns’ 1-yard line on their opening drive. The Ravens won’t commit these types of miscues every week, especially if Jackson is under center.

Meanwhile, Desmond Ridder’s first start for the Falcons was one to forget, as the third-round rookie completed just 50% of his passes for 96 yards while taking four sacks. Atlanta could try to bludgeon the Ravens with Tyler Allgeier, who posted 139 rushing yards against the New Orleans Saints last week. But Baltimore ranks fifth in efficiency against the run over the previous five weeks, so the Falcons might be forced to rely on Ridder.

— Dallas Robinson

Adam Beasley: Ravens 24, Falcons 13
Dalton Miller: Ravens 23, Falcons 17
Dallas Robinson: Ravens 22, Falcons 14

New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings

Betting line
Vikings -3.5; Vikings -190; Giants +158; O/U 48

By completing the largest comeback in NFL history against the Indianapolis Colts, the Vikings clinched their first NFC North title since 2017. Minnesota faces a very narrow path to usurping Philadelphia for the conference’s No. 1 seed, so the next three weeks will largely revolve around preparing for the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the New York Giants put themselves in line for a Wild Card slot by taking down the Washington Commanders last week, and they can clinch a postseason berth if a few things go their way this weekend. If New York wins in Week 16, and at least two of the Seahawks, Lions, and Commanders lose, Big Blue is in.

While the Vikings have a far more talented roster than the Giants, all but four of Minnesota’s games have been one-score affairs. New York might be able to take advantage of the Vikings’ weak interior offensive line, but — like most teams — they don’t have anyone capable of stopping Justin Jefferson.

— Dallas Robinson

Adam Beasley: Vikings 26, Giants 21
Dalton Miller: Vikings 26, Giants 23
Dallas Robinson: Vikings 28, Giants 19

New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns

Betting line
Browns -2.5; Browns -155; Saints +130; O/U 32

With wind chills in Cleveland expected to be around minus 10 degrees and the Saints and Browns struggling on offense, it’s no wonder the game total is at 32.5 points and dropping. If it holds, this will be the lowest over/under since at least 2008.

Since returning from suspension, Deshaun Watson ranks just 22nd of 31 qualifying quarterbacks in expected points added per dropback. During that span, Cleveland’s offense has been bailed out by exemplary play from the Browns’ defense (second in EPA per play) and special teams (third in DVOA). With the playoffs mostly a lost cause, Cleveland needs to develop some offensive rhythm to close the season and feel good heading into 2023.

Andy Dalton has been incredibly efficient over the last four weeks, completing more than 70% of his passes for 8.53 yards per attempt, six touchdowns, and no interceptions. Dalton is no one’s idea of a long-term quarterback option, but given the Saints’ lack of future cap space or draft capital, the 35-year-old could be an affordable stand-in again next season.

— Dallas Robinson

Adam Beasley: Browns 17, Saints 15
Dalton Miller: Saints 17, Browns 15
Dallas Robinson: Saints 19, Browns 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots

Betting line
Bengals -3.5; Bengals -190, Patriots +158; O/U 41.5

The Bengals and Patriots could hardly be headed in more opposing directions. Cincinnati can seemingly do no wrong, as they’ve won six in a row and eight of their last nine. With a high-powered offense led by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase and a defense better at second-half adjustments than any unit in the league, the Bengals can win in multiple ways.

Meanwhile, New England’s insane last-second loss to the Raiders in Week 15 obscured their offense’s poor performance. Mac Jones completed only 13 of 31 attempts for 112 yards, forcing a banged-up Rhamondre Stevenson to carry the offensive side of the ball. The Patriots could have gotten blown out if safety Kyle Dugger hadn’t managed an outstanding pick-six at the beginning of the third quarter.

New England can’t score enough points to keep up with Cincinnati, so they’ll have to rely on their defense to keep them in the game. The Bengals’ offensive line has shown dramatic improvement, but they could be susceptible to pass rushes from Matthew Judon and Josh Uche. A solid defensive effort, paired with a run-heavy, ball-control strategy, is the only path to a Patriots victory.

— Dallas Robinson

Adam Beasley: Bengals 20, Patriots 19
Dalton Miller: Bengals 23, Patriots 13
Dallas Robinson: Bengals 27, Patriots 17

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

Betting line
Cowboys -5; Cowboys -235, Eagles +192; O/U 46

Perhaps the most meaningful game of the week, the Cowboys-Eagles matchup might tell us which team is the best in the NFC, regardless of their season-end record. With the Cowboys scoring 35.5 points per game after Dak Prescott’s return, we know that they can run up the score and turn in explosive plays. The combination of CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliott, and Tony Pollard makes for a difficult team to cover.

The Eagles, however, rank sixth in points allowed and have done an increasingly better job defending the run. They still have one of the top pass defenses in the NFL despite the loss of C.J. Gardner-Johnson. They match up well with any passing offense and can win with pressure or coverage.

The other side of the ball might matter more. The Cowboys’ seventh-ranked defense by points allowed will be up against the Eagles’ second-ranked offense by points scored. But that’s not the whole story.

Though Jalen Hurts is a unique weapon that enables the running game while maintaining an efficient passing game, the Cowboys seem uniquely suited to stopping this kind of threat – they can man up receivers and send Micah Parsons or Anthony Barr to constantly be on Hurts-duty.

Not only that, but the Eagles have racked up their impressive statistics against a slightly more forgiving schedule, so it may be easier to believe in the Cowboys, especially at home.

Adam Beasley: Cowboys 28, Eagles 22
Dalton Miller: Cowboys 31, Eagles 25
Dallas Robinson: Eagles 26, Cowboys 25

Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins

Betting line
Dolphins -4; Dolphins -210, Packers +175; O/U 49.5

Time to stop messing around, Miami Dolphins. Teams can bounce back from three-game losing streaks (Miami has once already this year). But the historical track record of teams that lose four straight isn’t great.

The Dolphins are still a pretty safe bet to get into the postseason thanks to an 8-3 start and the general ineptitude of Jets, Patriots, and Titans. But even that grace runs out at some point.

The Dolphins need to win at least one and probably two of their last three to get in. But simply qualifying for the playoffs isn’t the goal. Making some noise is. And to do that, the Dolphins would be well-served to avoid facing the No. 2 seed, with the Wild Card Round trip to either Buffalo or Kansas City that comes with it.

The Green Bay Packers, meanwhile, need a Christmas miracle to get Aaron Rodgers back to the playoffs. They can be eliminated this weekend with a loss and a Commanders win. Victories against the Bears and Rams kept the Packers alive, but the reality is they’re not a good team. They have just one win this year against teams currently with winning records.

— Adam H. Beasley

Adam Beasley: Dolphins 27, Packers 20
Dalton Miller: Dolphins 30, Packers 24
Dallas Robinson: Dolphins 28, Packers 26

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Rams

Betting line
Broncos -2.5; Broncos -135, Rams +115; O/U 36.5

A matchup between two teams in Western divisions that had much higher preseason expectations, neither saw the quarterback play that they paid for. But the Denver Broncos have stayed the course with their passer, and the Rams have moved on to Baker Mayfield, who looked good in his first showing but disappointed the week after.

It’s difficult to tell who has the better quarterback, but the Broncos might have the better defense. Even without Bradley Chubb, their collection of defensive linemen, linebackers, and secondary players has played more impressively than the Rams’ defense has despite fielding stars in Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald. With Donald out of this week’s game, it’s even more difficult to project a high-level defensive performance out of L.A.

It’s hard to trust the Broncos to score, but in this circumstance, it might be harder to trust the Rams to do so.

Adam Beasley: Broncos 20, Rams 16
Dalton Miller: Broncos 17, Rams 13
Dallas Robinson: Rams 18, Broncos 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Betting line
Buccaneers -6.5; Buccaneers -285, Cardinals +228; O/U 41

For a brief moment, it looked like we were back to the old Tom Brady when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers played the Bengals last week. That didn’t last, but part of that has to do with how good the Bengals’ defense can be. The Arizona Cardinals don’t have the same defensive prowess and have a lot of vulnerabilities of which Tampa Bay is suited to take advantage.

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have been getting more productive, and there isn’t enough talent in Arizona’s secondary to fully contain them. Even if the Buccaneers are forced to rely on the running game, there’s not much that J.J. Watt can do alone without better support around him.

That said, Tampa Bay doesn’t have a consistent offense right now and will need to keep pace with the Cardinals’ attack. That, however, isn’t such a tall task — neither Kyler Murray nor Colt McCoy will be available for Arizona this week, and they will be forced to start Trace McSorely.

As such, the Buccaneers will have to be concerned about a running threat from the QB position — something that wasn’t an issue with McCoy. That said, there’s a reason McSorely was behind McCoy on the depth chart.

Adam Beasley: Buccaneers 22, Cardinals 19
Dalton Miller: Buccaneers 20, Cardinals 16
Dallas Robinson: Buccaneers 25, Cardinals 17

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts

Betting line
Chargers -4; Chargers -210, Colts +175; O/U 46.5

Indianapolis has decided to bench Matt Ryan for Nick Foles, which might actually lead to a better Colts offense. The ceiling, however, still isn’t so high, especially with Jonathan Taylor sidelined. The Chargers’ defense isn’t great, but they have some pieces that can do well in the right circumstances. These seem to be the right circumstances.

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The Chargers’ offense, led by Justin Herbert, has sky-high potential with Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and Mike Williams all available. The Colts’ defense has been good, especially with Stephon Gilmore shadowing top receivers, but it’s prone to collapses.

The biggest issue for Los Angeles will be their own secondary and how they match up, especially with an uneven pass rush in front of them that can be dominant or timid depending on the day. Still, flashes from Asante Samuel Jr. and Michael Davis give the Chargers’ defense some hope and should allow them to contain an unimpressive Colts offense.

Adam Beasley: Chargers 24, Colts 23
Dalton Miller: Chargers 23, Colts 20
Dallas Robinson: Chargers 24, Colts 16

Season standings through 15 weeks

Adam Beasley: 133-89-2 straight up, 101-115-8 against the spread
Dalton Miller: 132-90-2, 95-121-8
Dallas Robinson: 144-78-2, 101-115-8