Sunday brings us 10 NFL games and plenty of intriguing lines to pick through when it comes to the Week 16 NFL player props. As our NFL betting experts cast their eye over this week’s odds, what player prop bets have they picked out as good value this week?
NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 16
Jordan Love Under 234.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Jason Katz: Jordan Love has been on a tear lately.
He’s gone well over this number in five of his last six games. Yet, I am on the under. Why?
This is an awful spot for Love against the Carolina Panthers’ run-funnel defense. They allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game but just 183 passing yards per game, the second-fewest in the league. The Green Bay Packers should be able to run all over them, limiting what Love has to do through the air.
Add in the fact that Love will be without Christian Watson and likely Jayden Reed, and a run-heavy game plan seems very likely.
Tucker Kraft Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: Piggybacking off the Love under, we have Tucker Kraft. The rookie has played very well since taking over for Luke Musgrave as the Packers’ TE1. He’s totaled at least 37 receiving yards in three straight games.
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But let’s not pretend like Kraft is seeing some massive target share. His target counts have been six, four, and six over those past three contests.
This week, he should also suffer from the run-heavy game plan. In addition, the Panthers allow the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends. Kraft is likely to put up something like a 3-30 line this week.
Adam Thielen Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: The Adam Thielen decline is very real. The 33-year-old is clearly fading and is nowhere near the force he was early in the season. He’s gone over this number just once in his last four games, but there’s reason to believe he can do it this week.
We just saw the Packers get torched by Chris Godwin last week. They have been exceptionally vulnerable to the slot all season. Thielen leads the NFL in slot snaps. He should get peppered with targets and sail past this number.
Jordan Addison Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: For the past 3-4 weeks, Jordan Addison’s receiving line has consistently been in the mid-to-low 30s. Suddenly, after one big game, it’s back up and pushing 50? Why?
I love Addison. He’s really talented, but last week was a fluke. Before last week, Addison’s best yardage performance over the previous three weeks was 44. This should be a week where Nick Mullens leans heavily on Justin Jefferson. Plus, we have a T.J. Hockenson revenge game. I do not have confidence in Mullens to support three pass-catchers, leaving Addison as the odd man out.
Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Katz: I’ve lost track of how many weeks in a row I’ve taken this bet. Jahmyr Gibbs is an explosive run machine. He has 14 runs of 14+ yards this season, including each of his last three.
The Minnesota Vikings have been stout against the run. This is purely a bet on Gibbs’ talent, and it’s one I will continue to make until I see him fail.
Breece Hall Anytime Touchdown (+148 at ESPNBet)
Rolfe: It has been a tough season for Breece Hall with just 637 yards and two rushing touchdowns. However, he has added another 441 yards and three touchdowns in the receiving game.
This week, Hall gets a soft matchup against the Washington Commanders, who have allowed six touchdowns to RBs in the last four weeks. There are huge question marks at QB for the New York Jets, but the Washington defense has major issues, and Hall could exploit them.
Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown (+140 at ESPNBet)
Rolfe: It has been too long since Aaron Jones got into the end zone, but now he finally seems to be healthy; this could be the week that run ends. AJ Dillon remains limited with his thumb injury, and the majority of the work should fall to Jones in Week 16.
The Carolina Panthers have allowed five touchdowns to running backs in the last four weeks, and Jones could be in line for a really nice day against their defensive front.
Dalton Schultz Anytime Touchdown (+375 at ESPNBet)
Rolfe: Dalton Schultz returned from injury last week and played a solid game against a Tennessee Titans defense that matches up well with the tight end position. Schultz finished with 58 yards from five receptions.
This week he gets a Cleveland Browns defense that has struggled to contain tight ends in recent weeks. Opposing tight ends have scored four touchdowns and averaged just over 40 yards per game when facing the Browns defense.
De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown (+175 at ESPNBet)
Rolfe:Â The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a game where they got absolutely shredded by James Cook, and now they face one of the most dangerous 1-2 punches in the entire league. De’Von Achane has not scored for a couple of weeks, but we have seen time and time again how effective he can be.
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These odds seem too good for a player that has a touchdown in four of his eight games this year, and multiple touchdowns in three of those four. Achane at +750 to score two or more times is also extremely tempting in this matchup.
Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Touchdown (+155 at FanDuel)
Kyle Soppe: The Denver Broncos allow a league-high 5.2 yards per carry this season, and the New England Patriots are a top-10 offense in terms of rush rate over expectation, so it’s reasonable to expect a high usage day for Ezekiel Elliott.
He has accounted for 50 of 55 non-Rhamondre Stevenson RB carries over New England’s last three games, and with a defense that figures to keep them close, I have no problem in projecting Elliott for north of 15 carries in this game with at least a couple of targets.
This is a steep price for a player who hasn’t scored on the ground since October, but the combination of role and matchup makes him the only option if you’re looking at the Patriots for an anytime-touchdown wager.
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