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NFL Over/Under Bets for Week 10: Weather forecast looking dismal

The PFN betting team and analyst Drew Haynes return with another over/under best bet winner for Week 10 of the NFL season.

NFL Over/Under Bets for Week 10: Weather forecast looking dismal
JACKSONVILLE, FL - SEPTEMBER 11: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers calls signals during a NFL game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field on September 11, 2016 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by John Capella/Sports Imagery/ Getty Images)

Welcome to Week 10 of the NFL season. The PFN NFL betting team is excited to provide you with their best bets and insights to increase your bankroll this Sunday. In this article, I will dive into which over/under bets the model has identified as best bets for Week 10. We won the over/under best bet for Week 9 as the Washington Football Team vs New York Giants went over the 41.5, and I will look to carry that momentum into Week 10 to find us another winner. Be sure to bookmark the NFL betting team for all of our completely free content to help you cash during the 2020 NFL season.

NFL Week 10 Over/Under Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Green Bay Packers under 49.5 -105

This bet is predicated on several factors. The Jaguars enter the game starting Jake Luton, a rookie sixth-rounder at quarterback. He did look pretty good in his debut last week against the Texans, but he will have a step up in class against this Green Bay defense. Green Bay has a great offense, but will they be entirely focused on running up the score versus the inferior Jaguars when they have the Colts on deck next Sunday? Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the weather is looking dismal for this Sunday’s game and will certainly play a major factor in this under cashing.

When the Jaguars have the ball

The Jaguars offense has been a disappointment in 2020 to say the least, with 179 points for through Week 9, good for just 26th in the NFL. This was with quarterback Gardner Minshew starting all but one game for the Jaguars and performing very solidly in those starts. Now they transfer to Luton at quarterback, a rookie sixth-rounder out of Oregon State, who I have serious doubts about and is one of the main reasons I selected this play as my NFL Week 10 over/under best bet.

While he played well against the Texans in Week 9, throwing for 304 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, this came against a Texans defense that has been torched by nearly every team they’ve played against, with the third-worst defense in the NFL in terms of points against at 30.3 per game. I was not overly impressed with Luton coming into the league, and I expect many of his shortcomings to shine through in a bout with a solid Green Bay defense at a frigid and windy Lambeau field matchup.

Related | NFL Week 10 Picks, Predictions: Opening betting lines, odds, and scores

To make matters worse for this offense, they will be without one of their top receivers in Laviska Shenault and their kicker Josh Lambo. Shenault has been a dynamic weapon for the Jaguars in his rookie campaign, and he will be sorely missed in this offense that lacks playmakers and will be searching desperately for someone to make a big play. Whether Lambo’s injury last week may or may not end up factoring into the game, depending on whether his replacement Chase McLaughlin is effective in the kicking game, it certainly plays into my confidence in this under pick.

The Jaguars’ sole hope on Sunday relies on their ability to run the ball effectively with James Robinson, who has been a great asset for this team in 2020. Robinson had a career-high 25 carries in last week’s loss to the Texans, and I expect this to be the new norm as long as Luton remains the starter at quarterback. The Packers have not been great against the run this year, but I expect them to bring an extra man in the box to defend this running attack with the Jaguars passing attack likely to struggle.

When the Packers have the ball

This Packers offense is going to put up points Sunday. They are third in average yards per play at 6.2 and third in points per game at 30.6. Consequently, they face a Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in the in points allowed at 30.2 per game. All signs point to an offensive onslaught from the Packers on Sunday, and I cannot argue that given the numbers presented and that this Packers offense is finally getting healthy with Davante Adams and Aaron Jones both being healthy for this bout.

However, I do not think they put up enough to send this total over the number for many reasons. First, I expect the Packers balanced offensive attack to put them early, and I expect them to let off the gas a bit versus a Jaguars offense that will struggle to move the ball all day. Given the injury issues they have had this year, they will be reluctant to use stars like Adams and Jones late with the game already in hand.

I also wonder whether this Packers offense will be slow out of the gate because they look ahead to a Week 11 matchup versus the Colts. I’m confident that this horrendous defense and an offense led by a rookie quarterback are not worrying Rodgers and Co. To push this total over 49.5 and spoil this NFL over/under best bet for Week 10, I believe the Packers will at least need to score in the mid-30s. Any sitting of players of late or early game struggles will leave this high team total all but out of reach.

Storms are brewing in Green Bay

The main reason for my confidence in my Week 10 over/under best bet is the weather, which at the time of writing on Friday is calling for 24 mph winds with gusts up to 44 mph. Furthermore, there will be is an 85% chance of precipitation and a chance of snow. The high Sunday is also 40 degrees, so no matter how you put it, this weather will not be conducive to points.

Aaron Rodgers is used to these bad conditions as a Green Bay veteran. However, these will be some of the worst he’s faced, and no matter how used to it he is, the windy conditions will affect his ability to throw the ball downfield. I expect the Packers to keep the ball on the ground a lot as a result, keeping the clock ticking often.

The weather will have a massive impact on these Jaguars, who have been a dismal 0-10 in their last ten straight up in games below 55 degrees. The winds will greatly affect a Jaguars passing attack that I already expected to struggle mightily without Shenault and with Luton at the helm. With all of these factors considered, I would be shocked to see this team put up more than 17 points without some defensive or special team’s luck.

NFL Week 10 Over/Under Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Green Bay Packers under 49.5 -105

Other NFL Week 10 Over/Under bets from our handicappers

George Templeton’s Best Bet: Dolphins-Chargers O48 | -110 for 2 units

One of the quarterback battles the NFL’s been waiting for, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa vs. L.A.’s Justin Herbert. Tagovailoa, after a pedestrian first week, shined in the Dolphins win at the Cardinals. Herbert received rave reviews for his play since taking the starting job, and offense isn’t the Chargers problem. It’s holding on to leads. A shootout awaits.

Ryan Gosling’s Week 10 NFL Over/Under Best Bet | Seattle vs Rams O53.5 (-110) 1 unit

Arguably the best game of the week will see the Los Angeles Rams taking on Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams are coming off of their bye week, while the Seahawks are coming into this game off of an embarrassing loss to the Buffalo Bills.

The argument against an over here would be how good the Rams defense has looked. However, their numbers should be somewhat skewed, considering they have played against the NFC East. Yes, they have Aaron Donald and he can make an impact in any game he plays, but Seattle will likely double team him to try and eliminate his impact. The rest of the defensive line is not that intimidating.

Seattle has a historically bad defense. It is going to be even worse this week, considering they are likely to be without Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar. This terrible secondary will be that much worse.

At the end of the day, this is a simple play against Seattle’s defense. I think that Wilson will be able to do enough to keep this game competitive. Jared Goff should have an absolute field day offensively. The only way I can see this play not hitting is if the Rams focus on the run. But with this secondary, that wouldn’t make very much sense.

Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns | Under 44.5 (-110) 1 unit

Using PFN’s fantasy football weather forecast, this play is a simple under bet because of the conditions. This game could see over 30 mph wind gusts, and it is expected to be quite cold. As much as I like Deshaun Jackson, he is going to have a very hard time throwing the ball in this matchup.

On the other side of the ball, Nick Chubb will be returning, and that means the Browns should be able to move the ball on the ground. The duo of Kareem Hunt and Chubb will be tough to defend against in a game where both teams will need to run the ball.

I think the Browns are going to get the win in a very low scoring affair.

Follow Drew @DHaynesPFN and Pro Football Network @PFN365 on Twitter for all the best betting advice for the 2020 NFL season.

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