Another week of the NFL is in the books. Days are getting shorter, and wins are becoming more and more critical, especially for fantasy football. As with tradition, we break down the slate and see what the NFL weather forecast and report will look like for Week 10.
I hope you like the wind because you are about to get your fill of it this week. Nearly every game outside of Miami hits or exceeds the threshold we look for when determining when a game could be affected. Regarding wind speed – as a general rule of thumb, it is a relative non-issue until sustained winds cross the 15 MPH threshold. Beyond that, the wind starts to impact the passing and kicking game. Once we get above 25 MPH, we see real havoc begin to happen, and we have to downgrade the passing and kicking game while giving a boost to running backs and defenses.
As always, good luck. Stay safe. Let’s win the week.
NFL Weather Forecast and Report, Week 10 | A Polar Vortex brings high winds to the NFL
Note: All times are Eastern Time, and the NFL Week 10 weather report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing this up to kickoff. The NFL weather forecast for Week 10 is based on reporting from National Weather Service. All betting lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers -13.5 (Sunday 1:00 PM) – 47.5 o/u
Hold on to your cheese heads because they are likely to get swooped away on Sunday as a Polar Vortex comes down and hits Lambeau Field head-on.
What would normally be a relatively mild 37-degree day in Wisconson will feel closer to 25-degrees at kickoff due to the winds. Increasing in velocity as we approach kickoff, sustained winds are expected to be in the 24-28 MPH range with gusts pushing closer to 45 MPH and possibly close to 50 at their peak. There is also a chance to see some snow falling during this game. Given the current timing of the forecast, it appears that most of it will be out of the area by the time kickoff rolls around but don’t be surprised if we see some light snow flurries at the start of the game.
The snow doesn’t worry me; it is just the winds. At this level, we could see teams completely forgoing long field goal attempts, instead choosing to go for it on fourth down more often. Also, the deep passing game will likely get impacted, but due to the Lambeau field’s shape, the field could be slightly protected. Being a completely closed stadium (unlike Heinz field, for example), there is a bit of protection on the surface level with winds coming into effect once the ball gets higher in the air.
The addition to the south end zone, completed in 2015, extends 232 feet into the air — taller than a 21-story building. This will not shield all of the wind, but it could help mitigate some of its effects on Sunday.
Even though this will end up being more of a ground game, you still have to play Davante Adams, and I still have him ranked as my WR1 on the week. Allen Lazard still hasn’t been activated, and with no other viable pass-catching option, he should smash once again. Over his last three games, Adams has gone to a different level of production, piling up 30 receptions, 422 yards, and six touchdowns.
On the season, Adams is 11th in receptions (69), seventh in yards (675), second in touchdowns (8), is the WR2 in PPR scoring (168.5 pts), and has the highest points per game average of any wide receiver (28.1). He has also done all of this in only six games, including a game in Week 2, where he left early after just three targets.
The Jaguars have allowed the third-most points per target to wide receivers through nine weeks, so Adams could and likely will get going quickly as I don’t expect them to be able to hold onto the ball and keep the Packers offense off the field. It will not surprise me at all to see the QB1, RB1, and WR1 all come out of this game.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns -4 (Sunday 1:00 PM) – 45.5 o/u
In Cleveland, we will see a nearly identical pattern when it comes to the winds. Sustained winds will hover between 25-30 MPH with gusts at 45 MPH and possibly crossing the 50 MPH barrier—something we rarely see. It will be warmer in Cleveland, temperatures will be around 53-degrees and feel closer to 45. There is also a chance of storms right around kickoff with this front moving in though the timing is a bit hard to nail down. If the NFL starts to see any lightening in the area, we could see the start of this game delayed if it is within the area as the NFL will choose caution to protect everyone at the stadium, even if they aren’t packed anymore due to current global circumstances.
Remember how we talked about the protection of the stadium offered in Green Bay? Unfortunately for the Browns and Texans, FirstEnergy Field does not provide that as the stadium’s ends are open to the elements, especially in the corners, which will allow the wind to swirl. Also, the field is right on Lake Erie, meaning there is absolutely nothing in the way to slow things down.
This will be a game all about the run, and both teams could not be further apart when it comes to their preparation. For Houston, they just placed RB David Johnson on the IR and will be relying on Duke Johnson to carry the load. As for Cleveland, they are getting back one of the best rushers in the game in Nick Chubb, who makes his long-awaited return from a knee injury that sent him to injured reserve. Along with Kareem Hunt, I expect the Browns to keep it on the ground all game.
Philadelphia Eagles -4 at New York Giants (Sunday 1:00 PM) – 44.5 o/u
Not only will we see the winds at MetLife Stadium, but there is also a solid chance to see some rain mixed in as well when looking at the Week 10 weather forecast. Winds will be a touch calmer than we see in the previously mentioned games, with sustained winds around 15-20 MPH. Gusts will reach between 23 and 28 MPH, so they will still impact the game. Expect to see some rain in this game as there is an 80% chance of rain, which could bring up to a few tenths by the time the final whistle blows.
It’s hard to imagine many points being scored in the game already, but the one positive is that the Eagles are starting to get healthy again. RB Miles Sanders is going to make his return, as is LT Jason Peters. QB Carson Wentz gets some pass-catchers back as well in both WR Alshon Jeffrey and TE Dallas Goedert. With no one else wanting to win the NFC East, this is a great shot at making some headway for the Eagles, who lead the division with a 3-4-1 record on the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 at Carolina Panthers (Sunday 1:00 PM) – 50.5 o/u
Compared to many games on this slate, the NFL weather report for Week 10 in Charlotte isn’t bad at all. 70-degree temperatures and a 20% chance of rain are pretty nice. We will see some stronger winds, but not at the magnitude of other locations – expect 14-17 MPH winds with gusts reaching 25 MPH during the game. The sustained winds are right on the borderline where we see any impact, but neither of these quarterbacks makes their living off the deep ball, so the effect is reduced due to each team’s offensive philosophies.
Unfortunately, the return of RB Christian McCaffrey was shortlived. Spectacular, but fleeting. After a 37.1 point performance in Week 9, his injured shoulder will keep him out of this week’s contest, leaving Mike Davis to get the RB1 duties again. The last times these teams matched up, Bridgewater targeted McCaffrey and Davis a combined 13 times, completing 12 passes for 103 yards on them. That will have to work again as rushing the ball has not been easy to do against a Buccaneers defense that has given up a league-low 470 yards on the ground this year.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Sunday 4:25 PM) – 45.5 o/u
Not only does rookie QB Joe Burrow get his first taste of the Steelers rivalry, but he also gets to take on the 8-0 Steelers while battling the elements as well. Unfortunately for the Bengals, Joe Mixon won’t be available as the team has already ruled him out for Week 10. Fantasy managers will have to pivot to Gio Bernard once again, but he will be a low-end RB2 against a Steelers team that allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs at 17.70 per game.
It will feel around 50-degrees in the Steel City thanks to 20 MPH sustained winds with gusts between 32-35 MPH on Sunday. Because of this game being a 4:25 PM kickoff, the rain will have moved out of the area, and we shouldn’t see any during the game.
Baltimore Ravens -7 at New England Patriots (Sunday 8:20 PM) – 43.5 o/u
Kicking off at 8:20 puts us right in the winds for the worst weather of the day when looking at the Week 10 weather forecast. 50-degree temperatures will be met with 18-20 MPH winds and gusts that can reach up to 43 MPH during the ball game. There is also an increasing chance of rain throughout the game. At 8:00 PM, there is a 70% chance that climbs up to 95% by 10:00 PM. Expect rainfall amounts to be around two-tenths of an inch throughout the game.
I have a hard time imagining much happening through the air in the game. Both Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson have struggled as of late, and both teams are in the bottom part of the league in plays per game. I have Jackson as a lower-end QB1 thanks to his rushing upside, and Newton is in the mid-QB2 range, but if he can get a few rushing TDs, he would sneak back into the top 12 on the week.
Minnesota Vikings -3 at Chicago Bears (Monday 8:15 PM) – 43 o/u
Just because this game is on Monday does not exclude it from the rest of the awful NFL weather forecast for Week 10. The Windy City will live up to its name this week as we expect 14-17 MPH winds and gusts up to 25 MPH. This would be more of a concern in any other week, but it ends up being one of the week’s nicer games. Throw in 45-degree temperatures and clear skies, and it’s not so bad after all.
Earlier in the week, news came out that Head Coach Matt Nagy has relinquished play-calling duties, and I have no idea what to make of it. Playcalling has absolutely been an issue but so has the mediocre quarterback play and the inefficiency of the running game, which will now enter Week 10 without David Montgomery. If this team is going to try to keep up with Dalvin Cook, they are going to have to get it done utilizing Allen Robinson, the most underrated elite wide receiver in the NFL.
NFL Weather Report, Week 10 | Worry-free NFL weather
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins -1.5 (Sunday 4:05 PM) – 48.5 o/u
For those who survived the “sustained winds” drinking game, congratulations, you finally get to read a weather report in Week 10 that isn’t impacted by wind. This might be the game I am looking the most forward to of the whole slate because we get to watch Justin Herbert take on fellow rookie Tua Tagovailoa.
The weather forecast for this game expects 83-degree temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and nine mph winds.
NFL Weather Report, Week 10 | Early Indoor Games
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled, and as such, the only forecast and reports are that it will be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking game will not be affected.
- Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions -3 (Sunday 1:00 PM) – 46.5 o/u
NFL Weather Forecast, Week 10 | Late Indoor Games
The forecast will say that it’s going to be warm outside, but these NFL games are indoors, and teams will be playing in optimal conditions. The passing and kicking game will not be affected.
- Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 (Sunday 4:05 PM) – 51 o/u
- Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (Sunday 4:05 PM) – 56.5 o/u
- San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints -9.5 (Sunday 4:25 PM) – 49 o/u
- Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (Sunday 4:25 PM) – 54.5 o/u
Teams on a Bye in Week 10
- New York Jets (0-9)
- Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)
- Dallas Cowboys (2-7)
- Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
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