Can the Chiefs Still Make the 2025 NFL Playoffs? A Look at Kansas City’s Postseason Odds After Surprising 2-3 Start

Coming into the 2025 season, no one would’ve expected the Kansas City Chiefs to be 2-3. They didn’t have the easiest schedule to start the season, but each of their losses has been close.

So far this season, they’ve won two games by a combined 30 points and lost three games by a combined 12 points. HC Andy Reid has his work cut out for him, but it’s far too soon to count the Chiefs out.

Do the Kansas City Chiefs Still Have a Chance?

Chiefs fans, and NFL fans in general, aren’t used to seeing Kansas City drop three of their first five. Last year, they started 9-0. In 2023, they were 6-1. In 2022, they were 9-2. Notably, in 2021, QB Patrick Mahomes and company started 2-3. They won in Week 1, then dropped three of their next four to the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, and Buffalo Bills. By the end of the year, they finished 12-5.

After running a simulation through PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Chiefs still managed to secure the No. 2 seed in the 2025 playoffs. Even though they started 0-1 in the division, Mahomes led this team on a massive win streak after their Bye. The Chiefs’ schedule doesn’t get any easier as the simulation had them at 3-6 going into Week 10. From there, everything began to change.

In reality, there’s a genuine possibility this team drops three of their next four. With games against the Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, and the Bills, the Chiefs could hit rock bottom after November 2. There’s a chance they are able to win a few of those games, but it’s hard to imagine that scenario knowing they only have wins against the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens. That said, they’re still No. 7 in PFSN’s Offense Impact Metric.

No matter how things go in their next four games, Kansas City has a relatively easy schedule in their second half of the season. They’ll have to play the Denver Broncos twice, and who knows how the Dallas Cowboys will look by Thanksgiving. Kansas City should be in good shape if they can salvage a few wins there and get their win back over the Chargers. Other games include the Colts, Texans, Titans, and Raiders.

Even if Kansas City leaves Week 9 sitting at 3-6, they are far from out of it. Coming into Week 4, the AFC West ran through the Los Angeles Chargers. Now, they’ve dropped two straight, and things aren’t looking too bright. Denver is on the rise, but it’s worth noting the third-place Chiefs have a +18 point differential despite being 2-3.