The 2025 NFL season has reached its critical final stretch. With only four games remaining in the regular season, the suspense surrounding playoff berths and division crowns is intensifying by the week.
Several teams have already been mathematically eliminated from both playoff and division contention. Yet, despite Week 15, not a single division has been officially clinched, as all eight races remain open. With that in mind, let’s dive into the three tightest and most compelling division battles of the year.
NFL’s 3 Closest Division Races in Week 15
AFC South
With the Tennessee Titans (2–11) officially eliminated from both playoff and division contention, the AFC South has become a three-team sprint to the finish. The Indianapolis Colts once looked like the clear favorites after their explosive start, but a three-game skid, paired with Daniel Jones’ injury, has dropped them to 8–5 and into third place.
Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars (9–4) and Houston Texans (8–5) have surged over the past month, each playing some of their most inspired football of the season. Both now sit in a prime position to claim the division if they can maintain their momentum.
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Jaguars currently lead the race with a 58.50% chance to win the AFC South. The Texans follow at 33%, while the slumping Colts still have an outside shot at 8.50%.
NFC South
Early in the season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers appeared poised to seize control of the NFC South, but their grip has loosened considerably. Their surprising loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 14 dropped them to 7–6, now tied with the Carolina Panthers for first place in the division.
Tampa Bay, however, enters the final stretch with the advantage: not only do they have the easiest remaining schedule, but they also face Carolina twice, matchups that will likely decide the division outright. At the moment, the Buccaneers hold a 60.20% chance of taking the NFC South, while the Panthers remain firmly in the hunt with 28.60%.
NFC West
The NFC West is shaping up to be the most intense and tightly contested of the three races. The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks both stand at 10–3, while the San Francisco 49ers trail just one game behind at 9–4, with all three teams very much in striking distance.
The Rams benefit from the softest remaining schedule and enter Week 15 as the statistical favorite. They have a 54.60% chance of winning the division, followed by the Seahawks at 33.80%. San Francisco is still very much in the mix as well and holds an 11.60% chance to surge ahead during the final four weeks.
The race in the AFC North looks closer than it actually is, as after their win over the Baltimore Ravens, the Pittsburgh Steelers currently have a 75.20% chance of winning the division. The Ravens have a 22.2% chance of winning it, but they face a tougher closing schedule and have little margin for error if they hope to reclaim the top spot.