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    NFL DFS Sleepers & Busts Super Bowl: Projections for Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Jerick McKinnon, and Others

    Who are some of our NFL DFS sleepers and busts for Super Bowl LVII between the Eagles and Chiefs? Some of these names might surprise you.

    If you’re looking for DFS sleepers and busts for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

    NFL DFS Sleepers for Super Bowl 57

    The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.

    QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles

    The first two recommended sleepers are seemingly obvious, and they also need to be included. DFS victories sometimes come down to how many uber performers you have. By “uber,” I mean the kind of monster numbers that can make or break or DFS lineup. In other words, if you don’t include Player A, and Player A scores 32.6 points, then you’re almost assured of a resounding defeat.

    Jalen Hurts possesses the kind of upside we cannot, in good conscience, ignore. For example, he’s hit 20+ FanDuel points in 13 of 17 games this season, including the playoffs. He’s scored 27+ points on seven occasions.

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    For context, A.J. Brown has reached 20+ only four times, and 27+ merely twice. Isiah Pacheco has never secured 17+.

    The Chiefs yielded the most passing scores this season, and they’ve been spotty versus mobile QBs. Hurts is listed consistently as one of the two most expensive DFS options. But he’s also arguably one of the two safest and is a near-lock to deliver exceptional value.

    QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

    See above. Yes, very expensive, and also a great value play — even against an elite Eagles defense.

    Patrick Mahomes has hit 19+ points a total of 15 times and 26+ points seven times. This is his third Super Bowl appearance in four years. A sub-par pass defense should help elevate the Eagles’ scoring, forcing Kansas City to do what they do best: put the game in Mahomes’ hands.

    The all-world QB has more “good” receivers than he’s ever had, plus the inimitable Travis Kelce. Given his explosive ceiling, Mahomes qualifies as a high-priced sleeper who can achieve what only Dak Prescott (twice) has achieved in the Eagles’ last 26 games: throw 3+ TDs passes.

    RB Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles

    The next two picks dig a little deeper. I’ve been high on Kenneth Gainwell since Philly drafted him two years ago, believing that he could become the team’s bell cow in 2023 . . . assuming Miles Sanders walks. Of course, a Super Bowl win might change the Eagles’ calculus, particularly given how well Sanders has played in the largest role of his career.

    But while Gainwell’s evolution has been slow, his evolution during the postseason is an extension of what we’ve seen, in brief spurts, during his first two professional campaigns. As a “backup,” he’s No. 6 in RB fantasy scoring per game this postseason with a blistering 6.2 yards per carry.

    He’s a relatively cheap DFS fill-in. In a positive game script, he can chew up yards. In a negative game script, he’s an adept pass catcher on a team with an otherwise top-heavy receiving corps. Essentially, I don’t see him returning to an excessively limited role. Instead, he should be good for eight-plus touches as a top-six offensive option.

    WR Skyy Moore, Chiefs

    Keep close tabs on the health of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and Kadarius Toney. Because DFS pricing largely assumes these three (or most of these three) will be fine for the Super Bowl.

    MORE: Super Bowl 2023 Prediction

    As a result, rookie Skyy Moore can be had for pennies (relatively speaking). The speedy second-round pick remains raw. And if Kadarius Toney is at 100%, given his comparable price, I’d lean toward Toney for ceiling. Otherwise, a cheap add-on like Moore could get you six-plus DFS points and the decent possibility of a score. Not bad for one of the least expensive guys earning meaningful playing time.

    NFL DFS Busts for Super Bowl 57

    RB Miles Sanders, Eagles

    There’s nothing safe about this call. Yet it needs to be made.

    The Chiefs surrendered only six rushing scores and 4.3 yards per carry to opposing RBs during the regular season. My philosophy on DFS running backs is fairly consistent: expensive + TD dependent = fade.

    Sanders is not utilized much in the passing game; he caught only 20 balls during the regular season and currently has only one reception in his last four contests. The volume is great. The versatility is not.

    On the field, that suits the Eagles just fine, for good reasons. But in DFS, his floor is uncomfortably low. He needs to find the end zone to make good on his sizable cost. He’s scored in only one of his last six outings. Could it happen in the Super Bowl? Sure. But if we’re asking, “could it happen?”, it’s the wrong time to invest.

    RB Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs

    Is the 30-year-old Jerick McKinnon slowing down? Quite possibly, and not at all surprising when we consider his insane recent run. In a six-game stretch from Week 13 to Week 18, he scored nine times on 60 touches and 417 total yards.

    On the one hand, he could net five catches in the Super Bowl, and that might be enough to make good on his above-middling DFS price point. On the other hand, he’s gained only 43 rushing yards on 24 attempts in these past five games — an anemic 1.8 yards per carry. And the frequently superb pass catcher has netted only four receptions for 17 yards on seven targets in his last three outings.

    MORE: NFL Betting 101

    This doesn’t inspire confidence, especially when we consider the ascending Isiah Pacheco and a robust WR and TE corps that gives Mahomes six to eight solid options per contest.

    For McKinnon to produce DFS value, he needs to be more involved. But in the playoffs, he’s been an afterthought. That’s a telling sign for a running back struggling to get back to the line of scrimmage.

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