NFL DFS Picks Week 18: Highest upside Sunday lineup includes David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, and Brandin Cooks

If you're making NFL DFS picks today for Week 18, here is our favorite high upside lineup for Sunday DFS tournaments.

The final day of the NFL regular season and most fantasy football leagues is here. Week 18 Sunday football — there’s nothing like it. And there’s nothing like competing against thousands or even millions of people in DFS tournaments and 50/50 competitions. If you’re one of these people, here is our highest probability DFS lineup based on the most likely game script for each Sunday game. As always, these NFL DFS picks for today are based on FanDuel pricing.

Top NFL DFS picks for Sunday Week 18 | QB and RBs

This lineup’s quarterback has a lot to play for and is surrounded by talent, while the running backs are solid bets for 15+ DFS fantasy points. Our focus is on optimizing elite potential, knowing that landing two exceptional RBs and a dominant QB could make these DFS picks be a big winner.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams ($7,400)

When starting a DFS quarterback in the final week of the regular season, make it one with huge stakes on the line. If the Rams win, they’ll be the NFC’s No. 2 seed, meaning home-field advantage until at least the conference title match (assuming the Packers also get that far).

But if LA loses and the Cardinals win (a decent likelihood, since they’re facing the underdog Seahawks), the Rams would fall to the No. 5 seed and face a tough road matchup in the first round of the playoffs. This year’s fantasy QB7, Matthew Stafford, will be slinging it against the 49ers. I’m betting on top-five QB production.

David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears ($7,600)

The story is always the same with David Montgomery. When the Bears commit to the run, he consistently shines, particularly given his exceptional pass-catching chops. But when Chicago tries to feed the ball to their receivers — relegating Montgomery to 12-15 touches — it’s hard for him to make an impact.

In a meaningless game, Montgomery is facing a very beatable Minnesota defense. Somehow they slowed him down three weeks ago (only 13.3 fantasy points on 23 touches). The Bears’ starting RB should do better today.

If you plan to compete in another Sunday DFS tournament, you could swap out Montgomery for James Conner ($7,000), with the latest news that Chase Edmonds will be inactive.

Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills ($6,700)

The price is right for a running back we’ve been waiting all season for the Bills to commit to. Clearly the most talented RB in Buffalo, Devin Singletary is a do-it-all workhorse who runs with efficiency (4.6 yards per carry). Formerly wallowing in RB4 land, he’s now squarely an RB2 in a plus matchup against the Jets.

His upside hinges somewhat on his passing-game usage, which has been up and down all year. But a touchdown is very realistic against a team that’s yielded the most backfield fantasy points in the league.

Top NFL DFS picks for Sunday Week 18 | WRs

This lineup’s wide receivers consist of three options who could realistically score 20+ points each. All three are clear-cut No. 1 receivers on their respective teams. How confident are we that these three wideouts will help you win?

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions ($7,500)

Why not? Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a frontrunner for fantasy playoff MVP, issuing crushingly good performances in four of his last five games. During this stretch, he’s netted 8+ receptions on 11+ targets in each contest — despite never reaching either plateau in any of the rookie’s previous games.

This usage shift won’t likely change against an otherwise strong Packers defense that should soften a bit with nothing to play for (except an injury-free 60 minutes).

A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans ($7,400)

A.J. Brown is in the same boat as Stafford, though the stakes are slightly different. If Tennessee beats the Texans, they’ll claim the AFC’s top seed. If they lose, they could fall to as low as the fourth seed. So there’s a lot riding on today’s matchup.

Houston cannot be viewed as an easy out, and the Titans’ top-heavy offense — and impending return of Derrick Henry — are keeping them afloat. D’Onta Foreman is one big piece of the puzzle. Brown is the other. There are good reasons to believe Ryan Tannehill will pepper Brown with 15+ targets.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts ($6,600)

If the Colts lose, their playoff chances would be nearly dashed. Not entirely, but nearly. So this is a must-win game. The question is whether Jonathan Taylor runs wild or if they try to thread the needle to keep him fresher for what should be a challenging first-round playoff road game.

Enter Michael Pittman Jr., the Colts’ unquestioned No. 1 receiver. While it’s been an up-and-down season for him, Pittman is a good bet against a Jacksonville defense giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to WRs.

Top NFL DFS picks for Saturday football Week 18 | TE, Flex, D/ST

We have only $17,800 remaining in this DFS lineup. What’s the optimal combination for these final three slots?

Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears ($4,900)

We need cost savings somewhere, and TE is a good spot, especially when the player has averaged 7 targets in each of his last six games. Don’t be scared away by Cole Kmet’s lack of touchdowns (he has zero, in case you’re keeping score). The key takeaway is that he’s a cheap DFS TE who happens to be a top-three/four offensive option for his team. That’s good enough to roll the dice on.

If you’d rather go with a higher-ceiling TE at a steeper price and you selected Conner instead of Montgomery, you’d have the cap space to secure Zach Ertz ($5,600).

Brandin Cooks, Flex, Houston Texans ($7,100)

Brandin Cooks is like Michael Jordan on the 1985-86 Bulls, where David Johnson is the aged George Gervin. Oh, and Rex Burkhead fits in there somehow. But anyway, Cooks has meant everything to the slowly rebuilding 4-12 Texans.

The overall WR16 is 11th in the NFL in targets and 12th in catches. Davis Mills will probably feed him 12+ times against a vulnerable Tennessee defense. It helps that the Titans are stout against the run, putting even more pressure on Cooks to deliver.

Buffalo Bills, D/ST ($4,500)

Buffalo is at home against the Jets with the AFC East title on the line. Of course, this defense will step up. They should be a top-three option for Week 18, with a decent chance at 18+ points.

BJ Rudell is the Fantasy Football and Betting Product Director for Pro Football Network. You can read all of BJ’s work here and follow him on Twitter: @BJRudell.

FEATURED
PFN NEWSLETTER

Every day, get free NFL updates sent straight to your inbox!

[class^="wpforms-"]
[class^="wpforms-"]
[class^="wpforms-"]
[class^="wpforms-"]