NFL betting trends are one of the best ways to get a sense of where the public stands regarding the games for the week. Many people may not know that it is their behavior around the bets they place that can actually move the lines during the week, creating a chain and wave of new bets as the odds change.
As we examine the NFL Week 14 betting trends, we’ll look at all the ways the public is influencing the behavior of the sportsbooks and the behavior of other bettors.
Luckily for us, Pikkit tracks all of the bets placed in their community, and we don’t have to go far to find out the latest trends of the betting public across all of the different sportsbook apps. That feature is one of the reasons we’ve named Pikkit the best bet-tracking app on the market.
NFL Betting Trends in Week 14
The top NFL betting trends for Week 14 start with how Sunday ends, Sunday Night Football. The Miami Dolphins take on the Los Angeles Chargers in a much-anticipated matchup of two of the game’s most talked-about quarterbacks. Selected one right after the other in the 2020 NFL Draft, it’s no surprise this is the most popular event in Pikkit.
On the moneyline, the public overwhelmingly likes the Dolphins to win; 86.4% of all money has been wagered on that result. Additionally, 79.6% of all bets have come in on the Dolphins as well.
While perhaps not a reflection of the quarterbacks, it may be a reflection of the two teams this season. Miami has been an offensive juggernaut, and the Chargers have struggled to gain traction.
MORE: Dolphins vs. Chargers Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Week 14
My Behavior Bets sports betting model is with the public on this one, predicting the Dolphins to win 31-21.
Against the spread, the public has a much different opinion; 61.4% of the money has been put on the Chargers to cover the three-point spread. That said, 55.8% of the bets have been placed on Miami. Even still, that is a 24-point difference between bets on the moneyline and against the spread.
The Behavior Bets model says to fade the public money in this one. Miami is projected to win by at least six points most of the time, with a 10-point win most likely.
The public is betting overwhelmingly on the over in this one, with 65% of the money and 56% of the bets being placed there. The Behavior Bets model, meanwhile, has the under projected most of the time.
The Public Likes Minnesota To Cover
The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings face off in an NFC North matchup this week. The Vikings are the least talked about “good” team despite their 10-2 record. The Lions have strung some good weeks together and have hung tough in other games, enough so that the sportsbooks have this as only a two-point spread.
On the moneyline, the public is split on the money, with 53% going to Detroit and 46% going to Minnesota. The Lions, however, only have 35% of the bets placed. So the bettors who think Detroit can pull off the upset have put some serious money on that result.
The Behavior Bets model has this game very close. In raw point projections, the outcome favors the Vikings by less than one point. But it favors them nonetheless, and that’s where I’ve put my wager.
[the_ad_group id=”65008″]
The spread is a different beast. With a spread of just 1.5-2 points, depending on which book, the books see this as a close one too. The public isn’t taking the bait, however. Against the spread, 67.8% of the money is on the Vikings to cover. That is joined by 63.6% of the bets.
The Behavior Bets model shares that belief as well. Despite the raw score projection being less than a point, we see the game decided by 3-7 points most often. I wagered on Minnesota to cover.
Public Trusts Denver
Perhaps not shocking at all, the public is all over the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the lowly Denver Broncos. For the moneyline, 82.6% of the money is on the Chiefs, with 86.7% of the bets on that result. It is the spread where it gets really, really interesting.
The public overwhelmingly likes the Broncos to cover the 8.5-point spread in this one; 76.5% of the money has come in on Denver to cover, and 69% of the bets have come in the same way.
MORE: NFL Week 14 Picks and Predictions Including Lock and Upset of the Week
That is pretty surprising given just how awful the Broncos have been, especially on offense, making it seemingly unlikely they keep pace with the Chiefs. Perhaps the public has fallen out of love after the Chiefs’ loss to the Bengals in Week 13?
Feels like a good time to remind you that the public has a losing record against the spread this season.
