This Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers prediction comes down to more than just the two marquee quarterbacks in this matchup. It can be easy to lose sight of the forest through the QB trees. Despite that, however, we cannot lose sight of the defenses.
Just a year ago, things looked very different for both teams. Miami was the talk of the town with a Cover 0 blitz revolution, and Chargers head coach Brandon Staley was an analytics wunderkind.
Now? Staley is on the hot seat, and as Trey Wingo said on our show Football Insiders Wednesday night, the Dolphins’ defense is more Jane than Tarzan when on the road. Trey agrees that what’s being billed as the Battle for Tuanon, may come down to the other side of the ball, and that’s where we’ll find the value when examining the Dolphins vs. Chargers odds.
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction and Odds | Week 14
- Spread
Dolphins -3 - Moneyline
Dolphins -125 - Over/Under
Under 53.5
Dolphins vs. Chargers Prediction
Using the Behavior Bets sports betting model, and the consistency of both teams behaviorally, finding value in this Miami vs. Los Angeles prediction is what we’re going to dive into with what we know about each defense.
If you’re just into the quarterback matchup, I have the model’s picks between Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert, with my plays placed through Underdog Fantasy.
The Dolphins’ defense has been a roller coaster this season. Much of what climbs or drops on the roller coaster depends on whether or not they’re at home or on the road. This year, Miami has a bounce rate of x3.3 when looking at points given up per minute of opposition possession time. That means that the variance between their highest and lowest output is a multiple of 3.3.
MORE: NFL Week 14 Picks and Predictions
That is rather large compared to other teams in the league. In fact, that is the sixth highest of all defenses. They average giving up .66 points per minute of opponents’ possession time, which is 14th lowest. The big ranking difference there showcases the Dolphins’ inconsistency and stopping opposing offenses, especially when on the road.
Miami’s given up over one point per minute of opponent possession time three times this season: at Baltimore, at New York, at Chicago. Bettors should be cautious with trusting them while noting two of those games…were wins.
The Chargers’ defense has actually been a model of consistency. They aren’t showing any extreme trends in either growth or decay related to giving up points week over week, and their bounce rate is a modest x2.1.
The problem for them? They’ve been consistently bad.
Los Angeles is averaging .808 points given up per minute of opponent possession time. That is third worst in the entire NFL behind Detroit and Cleveland. The acquisitions of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson, done with the hopes of not just slowing down other teams, but specifically one of one Patrick Mahomes. How did that work?
[the_ad_group id=”65007″]
The Chargers’ two games against the Chiefs are among their five worst games this season in points per minute of opponent possession time. Additionally, not to continue to put a damper on things, on Sunday Night Football, the second-best offense in terms of points scored per minute of possession time comes to town in the Dolphins, ahead of the third-ranked Chiefs.
The Chargers’ offense ranks ninth in the same category but is a full .2 points per minute behind the Dolphins’ offense. Miami’s defense, while inconsistent, is a full .2 points better than L.A.’s defense per minute.
The Dolphins are outperforming the Chargers on both sides of the ball. The only question that remains is, are we getting the Mr. Hyde Dolphins defense or Dr. Jekyll?
What’s more? The Chargers could be without three prominent defensive players, including Derwin James, who did not practice this week. Running that possibility through the model actually moved the Dolphins’ projection up three points.
MORE: Is Tua a Bargain in the Week 14 Player Props?
I think Tua and the Dolphins will score points and control the ball. So does the model. There’s not a lot looking good for the Chargers in this one.
The Behavior Bets model had a strong November, going 40-23-2 with a +14.98% ROI and is up +8.7u. In December, we are off to an 11-7-1 record with a +11.04% ROI and up +1.6u.
All of my stats are at Pikkit, where you can tail or fade the model, and track your own bets for Week 14 in the NFL.
Dolphins vs. Chargers Prediction
Dolphins 31, Chargers 21
