We’re three weeks through the NFL season, so now we have a better idea of the best teams against the spread so far this season, as well as which teams go over or under the game total at the highest rate.
Using the trends from Team Rankings, we have five unbeaten teams against the spread (two of which have pushed) and seven teams that have yet to cover, including 2022’s best team ATS. For totals, just one team each has hit the over in all of their games this season, and another one is three-for-three in games that have gone under the point total.
Let’s take a look at the best teams against the spread.
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NFL Betting Trends
Records are from Team Rankings, whose closing odds might differ from others. ATS +/- refers to the average amount of points that the team covers the spread by.
Best NFL Teams Against the Spread
1. Miami Dolphins 3-0 (+18.2 ATS +/-)
The Miami Dolphins are the only one of the three remaining undefeated teams that has covered the spread in each game so far this season. Miami has been one of the most bet-on teams this season, winning a lot of money for the public so far.
2. Arizona Cardinals 3-0 (+9.3 ATS +/-)
Arizona has been an underdog in every game this season but has covered each of them with ease. Projected to be the worst team in the NFL this season, the Cardinals are playing far better than sportsbooks and the public ever imagined.
3. Green Bay Packers 3-0 (+7.8 +/-)
The Green Bay Packers have covered their closing spread for two weeks in a row, as they flipped from opening as the favorite to eventually becoming the underdog in consecutive games. So despite them being 3-0 ATS, plenty of people have losing tickets on the Packers to cover.
4. Los Angeles Rams 2-0-1 (+7.3 +/-)
Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams infamously kicked a field goal in the final seconds in Week 2 to cover the Rams +7.5 against the San Francisco 49ers. In Cincinnati, they pulled off another backdoor cover for people who backed them early in the week before the line started to drop, but the spread closed at Bengals -3, so Team Rankings graded it as a push.
5. Philadelphia Eagles 2-0-1 (+3.3 +/-)
Team Rankings has the closing spread for the Philadelphia Eagles’ Week 2 win over the Minnesota Vikings at Eagles -6, grading their 34-28 victory as a push. Otherwise, the defending NFC Champions would be 3-0 ATS, including two games in which they were road favorites. No Super Bowl hangover so far in Philly.
Worst NFL Teams Against the Spread
1. Denver Broncos 0-3 (-18 +/-)
We expected the Denver Broncos to be better under Sean Payton, but so far, the team hasn’t been any better than last season under Nathaniel Hackett. Losing by 50 points against the Dolphins certainly puts a dent in their ATS point differential this season. This week, they play the only other team that’s both winless straight up and against the spread in the Chicago Bears, so something has to give.
2. New York Giants 0-3 (-15.5 +/-)
The best team at covering the spread last season, the New York Giants are 0-3 ATS to start 2023. They were blown out in each of their two losses so far this season, and their lone win against the Cardinals was a 21-point comeback in which they were five-point favorites.
3. Chicago Bears 0-3 (-15 +/-)
The Bears were the second-least profitable team against the spread last season, and their struggles ATS have carried over into 2023. As I mentioned earlier, though, one of the two teams that’s winless both SU and ATS will finally get in the win column this week, as Denver and Chicago play each other. But the Bears have been so bad that they’re home underdogs to the team that lost by 50 points last week.
4. Cincinnati Bengals 0-2-1 (-9 +/-)
The Bengals have started 0-2 SU and ATS for the second year in a row. They went 12-2 against the spread in their final 14 games in 2022, so there’s reason for optimism that they’ll be a more profitable team to bet on for the remainder of the season, especially after they should have covered on Monday night if not for a late Rams touchdown that resulted in a push.
5. Carolina Panthers 0-2-1 (-5.3)
If not for a late touchdown in Week 2 on Monday Night Football for a backdoor push against the New Orleans Saints, the Carolina Panthers would be both 0-3 SU and ATS to start the season. They’ve been underdogs in every game so far, and they will be home underdogs once again in Week 4 against the winless Minnesota Vikings.
Best Teams Going Over and Under the Point Total
So far this season, there is one team whose games have gone over the point total every week, and it’s not the Dolphins. It’s the Bears, whose games have gone over the total by an average of 7.7 points per game. This is largely due to their defense giving up the second-most points this season and their point totals being relatively low because of their anemic offense.
The Saints, meanwhile, are the only team to have each of their games go under the point total. So far, their games have gone under by an average of 6.5 points per game, as they have held each of their opponents to below 20 points per game. The Saints’ offense, however, has only scored more than 20 just once and is only averaging 17.7 points per game, eighth-worst in the NFL.