We’ve gone 51-35-1 picking against the spread and 62-23-1 on moneylines over the past five weeks. Here’s a final look at our NFL Week 18 predictions and picks for all 16 games. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 18 Picks
Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.
With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed.
Las Vegas Raiders (+9) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 7
- Start time: 4:30 p.m. ET
The big question heading into Friday evening is Josh Jacobs’ status. He’s an impending free agent and the likely rushing champion. There’s little to gain and much to lose if he handles a full load.
As a result, I don’t see how Vegas can possibly prevail this one, as the Kansas City Chiefs are playing for the AFC No. 1 seed and assuredly will fire up their starters in a game they desperately want to win.
That said, I like the Raiders staying close enough, with the help of Davante Adams, who’s trying to become the 13th player in NFL history with two 1,500-yard receiving seasons.
Against-the-spread prediction: Raiders
Moneyline winner: Chiefs
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 7
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
The spread should be bigger. The Tennessee Titans get credit because of Derrick Henry and their championship pedigree. But this is nothing close to the team that won the AFC’s No. 1 seed last season.
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Tennessee’s near-league-worst pass defense is like a welcome sign for Trevor Lawrence and his band of overachieving receivers. The Jags should take this one by 13+ points.
Against-the-spread prediction: Jaguars
Moneyline winner: Jaguars
Atlanta Falcons (-4) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
This was a pick’em on Monday. With the Bucs now planning for next week’s playoff game, Atlanta has the clear edge versus Tampa Bay’s backups. Will four points be too much? Perhaps. But their strong running game alone should keep them ahead for most of the game, if not all of it.
Against-the-spread prediction: Falcons
Moneyline winner: Falcons
Buffalo Bills (-7.5) vs. New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
As the football world continues to focus on Damar Hamlin and his miraculous signs of recovery, the Buffalo Bills must somehow regroup. The point spread has dipped two points since Monday.
I still believe New England will keep things relatively close, with Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris trying to carry them over the finish line. But based on the recently agreed upon playoff scenario as a result of Monday’s canceled game, a Buffalo win — paired with a Chiefs win — would ensure that the Bills wouldn’t have to play on the road in the AFC title game (i.e. a matchup with the Chiefs would be played on neutral turf).
So despite officially being a half-game behind Kansas City for the No. 1 seed, the Bills assuredly will go all in.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bills
Moneyline winner: Bills
Chicago Bears (+8) vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
A 2.5-point spread has jumped to eight on news that Justin Fields will sit. With Nathan Peterman starting for Chicago, it’s unclear how the Bears will generate significant points.
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But the Minnesota Vikings look all too human these days, and even their many victories have been mostly nail-biters. And they’re pretty much stuck with the No. 3 seed, as they’d need the San Francisco 49ers to lose to the Arizona Cardinals (unlikely) to have a shot at No. 2.
I expect Minnesota to prevail, but assuming their starters retreat to the sidelines earlier than expected, Chicago should keep the loss within a touchdown.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bears
Moneyline winner: Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
A six-point spread had jumped to 9.5. Is that too much? Will the Cincinnati Bengals be emotionally ready?
The Bengals have more to play for, though, like the Vikings, they cannot move up in seeding unless the Bills lose in an upset. Similarly, the Ravens will be the 5- or 6-seed.
But a Bengals win and Chiefs loss would, according to recently approved NFL rules, ensure that Cincinnati wouldn’t have to travel to Kansas City if they meet the Chiefs in the postseason. Instead, the game would be played on neutral turf.
With Lamar Jackson out and Tyler Huntley firmly questionable, I expect Baltimore to limp into the playoffs with a bad loss.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bengals
Moneyline winner: Bengals
Denver Broncos (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
The Denver Broncos are already preparing for the 2023 season. They don’t have a choice after getting eliminated from postseason contention two games ago. The Los Angeles Chargers, meanwhile, will be one of the most dangerous Wild Card teams in recent years.
We might see plenty of backups in this one, as L.A. will go on the road in the first round of the playoffs regardless of what happens. Health has been a major problem for them. The x-factor will be Russell Wilson’s seemingly desperate attempt to establish some degree of legitimacy heading into an assuredly chaotic offseason.
Against-the-spread prediction: Broncos
Moneyline winner: Broncos
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Two bottom-tier passing games face off to determine their NFL draft position, and to size up just how badly they need to completely remake their QB depth charts.
The Indianapolis Colts lead the league with 18 interceptions. The Houston Texans are tied for second with 17. The Colts have taken the second-most sacks in the NFL. The Texans are near the bottom with only 3.8 yards per carry. This game probably will be decided by which team makes the fewest mistakes.
Against-the-spread prediction: Colts
Moneyline winner: Colts
Miami Dolphins (-3) vs. New York Jets
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Miami has a better running game, more talented receivers, and (despite Skylar Thompson at QB) likely the better quarterback.
“But what about Joe Flacco?! He looked great earlier this season!!” Well, the veteran needed 155 pass attempts in three games (i.e. 51.7 per game) to compile 901 yards, five TD passes, and three interceptions. He’s been the Jets’ de facto No. 4 QB for a host of reasons.
My money is on Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle to win the day versus a tough New York defense.
Against-the-spread prediction: Dolphins
Moneyline winner: Dolphins
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Andy Dalton and Sam Darnold are trying to extend their careers. The rest is up to fate.
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I expect both QBs to give it their all, though to varying degrees of success, depending on how long their starting receivers are out there. The New Orleans Saints have the edge based on an arguably better defense.
Against-the-spread prediction: Saints
Moneyline winner: Saints
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Cleveland Browns
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Some relative stability here, with the Pittsburgh Steelers’ early-week two-point advantage edging up to three. That’s not enough to deter me from going all in on Pittsburgh, which needs a victory (and some help) to sneak into the playoffs.
I don’t expect Deshaun Watson, Nick Chubb, and other critically important Cleveland Browns to do much, if anything. If they do, then this franchise will be playing with fire instead of playing for 2023.
Against-the-spread prediction: Steelers
Moneyline winner: Steelers
Philadelphia Eagles (-14) vs. New York Giants
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
In one of the biggest point-spread shifts in years, the Philadelphia Eagles are now 14-point favorites after formerly having a two-point edge. What changed since Sunday?
Well, the New York Giants locked down the NFC’s No. 6 seed, while the Eagles are still battling for the No. 1 seed. Philly head coach Nick Sirianni shared on Friday that Jalen Hurts is “trending in the right direction” to return on Sunday.
That’s all it takes for a hard-fought battle to turn into a potential blowout. Expect the Eagles to bring their A game against the Giants’ B team to lock down a first-round bye and home-field advantage until the Super Bowl.
Against-the-spread prediction: Eagles
Moneyline winner: Eagles
San Francisco 49ers (-14) vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
It was 11.5 points on Monday. The new line concerns me after I tentatively picked the Niners to cover.
Here’s the deal: Minnesota will play earlier. They should beat Chicago, but who knows? Assuming they win, San Francisco will go all out once again in Week 18.
But . . . the Eagles play at the same time as San Francisco. Assuming Philly wins comfortably (see above), the 49ers — who surely will be watching the scoreboard — might adjust their approach in the second half: more Jordan Mason and Ray-Ray McCloud, less Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk, for example.
While I don’t expect the Cards to challenge for the win, once San Francisco has the game in hand, I believe they’ll take a more conservative tack, which would open the door to a late score for Arizona, keeping this one within two touchdowns.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cardinals
Moneyline winner: 49ers
Seattle Seahawks (-6) vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
A three-point spread has jumped to 6.5. Too high? Not at all, with a potential playoff spot on the line. A Seattle Seahawks win and Green Bay loss later in the evening would catapult the underdog Seahawks to the postseason.
Easier said than done, but it begins by defeating the defending champions. With the Los Angeles Rams looking to regroup for another potential run in 2023, there’s little incentive to overwork Cam Akers or some of their key defensive cogs.
The Seahawks are healthy and battle-tested. They defeated L.A. a few weeks ago largely through the air, as an injured Kenneth Walker III managed only three carries. This weekend, Walker will be key to Seattle’s victory.
Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
Moneyline winner: Seahawks
Washington Commanders (+7) vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Brian Robinson Jr. is out. Antonio Gibson is out. Rookie QB Sam Howell will make his debut. This could be a mess.
The Dallas Cowboys will be the No. 5 seed or the No. 1 seed. The differences obviously are stark. Dallas playing the Eagles or Bucs at home after a week off is a far easier climb than playing Tampa Bay on the road . . . and then, if they win, either Philly or San Francisco on the road.
I expect Dallas to overwhelm the deflated Washington Commanders, who were in the driver’s seat three weeks ago before a shockingly timid collapse ran the tally to 18 seasons since they last won a playoff game.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cowboys
Moneyline winner: Cowboys
Green Bay Packers (-5) vs. Detroit Lions
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 8
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
The formerly 4-8 Packers trailed by nine points in the fourth quarter to the Bears. Their season might have ended there. Instead, they came back to win and then vanquished their next opponents to control their postseason destiny.
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The Lions’ journey to relevance is no less dramatic after beginning the season 1-6. But their victory over Green Bay in Week 9 kicked off a 6-2 run, putting them one win — and one Seattle loss — away from an improbable playoff appearance.
I’m going with the home team to win, but with the point spread edging upward from three points, I’m picking the Lions to keep it close.
Against-the-spread prediction: Lions
Moneyline winner: Packers
