We made it, friends. Seventeen weeks of football are in the books. One remains — and it’s a doozy. We go through all the playoff permutations and try to send you into the postseason a winner with our NFL Week 18 Picks and Predictions. All lines are as of Wednesday and courtesy of Caesars.
NFL Predictions: Lock of the Week
Betting line
Cowboys -5.5; Cowboys -240, Commanders +196; O/U 41
The Dallas Cowboys enter Week 18 with a faint chance of winning the NFC East and an even fainter chance at a first-round bye.
Even if they’re able to leapfrog the Philadelphia Eagles — it’ll take a win over the Washington Commanders and a Philly loss to the nothing-to-play-for New York Giants — to capture the division, the Cowboys still have to contend with the San Francisco 49ers for the No. 1 seed.
San Francisco, in that scenario, would capture home-field advantage simply by beating the god-awful Arizona Cardinals.
The good news for Dallas (and, by extension, bettors)? All three games take place at the same time. So Mike McCarthy can approach it like a normal workweek — albeit a workweek that includes a gimpy Dak Prescott, who hyperextended his knee against the Tennessee Titans last Thursday.
Assuming Prescott can play, this game should play out a lot like the first time these teams met — a game the Cowboys won handily. And that was with an experienced Commanders quarterback. Rookie QB Sam Howell will make his professional debut Sunday with Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke both benched.
Since the start of December, Washington is 20th in dropback EPA (-.03) and dropback success rate (45.1%) — but our eyes tell us it’s been even worse than that.
Adam Beasley: Cowboys 25, Commanders 16
Dalton Miller: Cowboys 27, Commanders 13
Dallas Robinson: Cowboys 27, Commanders 16
NFL Predictions: Upset of the Week
Betting line
Falcons -4.5; Falcons -205, Buccaneers +170; O/U 40
We made this pick taking Todd Bowles at his word and that he plans to play his starters even though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are locked into the No. 4 seed.
But even if Tom Brady and the fellas play just one half to stay sharp ahead of a likely Wild Card Weekend showdown with the Cowboys, Tampa should beat an already-eliminated Atlanta Falcons team that needed all 60 minutes to beat David Blough and the Cardinals.
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That was the Falcons’ only win since Thanksgiving. Since inserting Desmond Ridder into the starting lineup, the Falcons have averaged 15.7 points per game and have ranked in the bottom tier of most passing categories.
The Buccaneers were an average team in 2022. The Falcons were a bad team.
Adam Beasley: Buccaneers 21, Falcons 20
Dalton Miller: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 20
Dallas Robinson: Buccaneers 25, Falcons 17
More NFL Week 18 Picks and Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Betting line
Chiefs -7.5; Chiefs -385, Raiders +300; O/U 52.5
The first game of the week could be the most consequential. The Kansas City Chiefs need to win to have any realistic shot at home-field advantage.
And they probably will. The Las Vegas Raiders must be encouraged by what they saw out of Jarrett Stidham in the first start of his career. He carved up an excellent 49ers defense for 365 yards and three touchdowns on 23 of 34 passing.
But can that be sustained? It’s unlikely. Even with that excellent performance, Stidham’s career passer rating is still just 72.6 — more than 30 points behind that of Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes (if he hasn’t already) will probably lock down a second MVP trophy if he can light up a Raiders defense that has allowed the eighth-most points in the NFL (24.2 per game).
— Adam H. Beasley
Adam Beasley: Chiefs 31, Raiders 23
Dalton Miller: Chiefs 31, Raiders 26
Dallas Robinson: Chiefs 30, Raiders 20
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Betting line
Jaguars -6.5; Jaguars -285, Titans +228; O/U 40
The Saturday Night Football game between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars is for all the marbles. The Jaguars are coming off four straight wins, while the Titans have lost six straight. Once again, the Titans were the league’s most injured team. In 2021, they broke the record with 91 players fielded and still secured the top seed in the AFC. But that luck ran out, leading to a barely recognizable unit in 2022.
But still, it wouldn’t be insane for Tennessee to beat Jacksonville. Just a season ago, the led Jaguars spoiled the Colts’ playoff chances in Week 18, proving that anything is possible in the NFL. Except for their embarrassing loss versus the Houston Texans, each of Tennessee’s six losses have come against playoff teams. But it’s unlikely that their patchwork defense can keep Jacksonville from scoring enough points to win this game, given Tennessee’s offensive ineptitude at the moment.
— Dalton Miller
Adam Beasley: Jaguars 25, Titans 14
Dalton Miller: Jaguars 23, Titans 17
Dallas Robinson: Jaguars 26, Titans 18
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Betting line
Bills -7.5; Bills -355, Patriots +278; O/U 42.5
The Buffalo Bills already had a lot to play for, but that has become amplified by the horrific injury sustained by Damar Hamlin. There is no doubt they’ll commit the rest of this season to their brother. However, it’s impossible to know how each individual will react mentally and physically to the trauma they sustained by what they witnessed. CPR is not what they show it to be on TV.
That said, in “normal” conditions, the Bills are far superior to the New England Patriots in practically every conceivable way. The Patriots’ defense may be able to slow down Buffalo’s offense, but the Patriots’ offense is one of the most underwhelming units in the league and will face one of the best defenses in the NFL.
A Patriots win gets them into the playoffs. Josh Allen has been no stranger to turnovers this season, and if New England wants a chance to win this game, they’ll most likely need an eighth defensive touchdown to get the job done.
— Dalton Miller
Adam Beasley: Bills 28, Patriots 21
Dalton Miller: Bills 30, Patriots 20
Dallas Robinson: Bills 29, Patriots 21
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Betting line
Bengals -7; Bengals -305, Ravens +240; O/U 41.5
The Cincinnati Bengals are arguably the best team in the NFL right now. Although their defensive efficiency metric doesn’t stack up to their offense, they are an incredibly well-rounded team. Joe Burrow has ascended past even last year when he was lighting up the league, and the Bengals rushing attack has found some efficiency after being absent to start the season.
Baltimore, on the other hand, has once again struggled with the injury bug in 2022. The Ravens are currently fielding names like Sammy Watkins and DeSean Jackson at receiver, and Lamar Jackson’s health remains a question. If Jackson can’t play, there is little hope Baltimore can win. However, depending on what action the NFL takes regarding the Bills-Bengals game, this game may not matter for the division.
— Dalton Miller
Adam Beasley: Bengals 20, Ravens 17
Dalton Miller: Bengals 24, Ravens 18
Dallas Robinson: Bengals 26, Ravens 18
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Betting line
Steelers -3; Steelers -155, Browns +130
Who would have thought that in Week 18, we’d look at a matchup between the Browns and Steelers, and it would be Pittsburgh playing for a potential playoff berth? But Mike Tomlin continues to flaunt his outstanding ability to lead grown men and can potentially escape his first losing season for the 16th straight year.
The Steelers aren’t a particularly talented team on paper, yet their defense ranks right outside of the top 10. And an offense that could have been a complete disaster in 2022 has avoided total mediocrity. It is a testament to Pittsburgh’s organizational culture and consistency.
It will take a lot of things falling the right way, but the Steelers could steal the No. 7 seed in the AFC, and Kenny Pickett could play in a playoff game as a rookie. However, the Browns looked pretty competent a week ago against Washington, and Myles Garrett is still one of the best players in the league.
— Dalton Miller
Adam Beasley: Steelers 23, Browns 17
Dalton Miller: Steelers 20, Browns 16
Dallas Robinson: Browns 23, Steelers 20
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
Betting line
Dolphins -115, Jets -105; O/U 38.5
About three weeks ago, this was a prime candidate for the final Sunday Night Football game of the season. Instead, it’ll be one of seven games played at 1 p.m. Sunday.
Why? Because both teams have totally collapsed. The New York Jets have lost five straight, the Miami Dolphins have lost five straight, and the Jets have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Dolphins have a viable path — but that path becomes a dead end with a sixth loss. (They’re the seventh seed if they beat the Jets and the Patriots lose to the Bills.)
If Tua Tagovailoa were starting, the Dolphins would probably be touchdown favorites. He’s not, however. Tua will miss his second straight game — and fourth of the season — due to a concussion. Teddy Bridgewater (finger) will play if he can. If not, it’ll be Skylar Thompson, who has very much looked the part of a rookie seventh-rounder.
There’s a reason this game is a coin flip. Literally, any outcome wouldn’t be a surprise.
— Adam H. Beasley
Adam Beasley: Dolphins 21, Jets 19
Dalton Miller: Jets 20, Dolphins 17
Dallas Robinson: Jets 23, Dolphins 21
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
Betting line
Saints -3.5; Saints -190, Panthers +158; O/U 41.5
The Carolina Panthers are still playing hard for interim head coach Steve Wilks, and they’d still be in playoff contention had they been able to pull off a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. Carolina has won in disparate ways in recent weeks. In some games, they’ve relied on a dominant run game, while in others, an improved Sam Darnold. Week 18 will present one final opportunity for evaluation before the Panthers make sweeping changes this offseason.
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Carolina has averaged nearly 27 points per game over the last four weeks, but the New Orleans Saints’ defense presents a stiff test. New Orleans is currently on a three-game win streak, and they haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game since Week 11. Dennis Allen looked like a potential one-and-done head coach at some points this year, but he’s likely solidified his standing with the Saints over the past month.
— Dallas Robinson
Adam Beasley: Saints 23, Panthers 18
Dalton Miller: Saints 17, Panthers 13
Dallas Robinson: Saints 24, Panthers 21
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Betting line
Colts -2.5; Colts -145, Texans +122; O/U 38
The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans have posted eerily similar production this season. They’re the two worst teams in expected points added per play on offense, but both defenses have been roughly league-average. After playing to a tie in Week 1, another stalemate between Indy and Houston to close out the 2022 season would seem almost fitting.
Of course, we expected the Texans to be among the worst teams in the league. That’s not the case for the Colts. Indianapolis will be searching for a new head coach this offseason, and Houston could clean house too. Winning a meaningless Week 18 game won’t necessarily save either Jeff Saturday or Lovie Smith’s job. Still, an embarrassing loss could make it easier for the respective ownership groups to move on.
— Dallas Robinson
Adam Beasley: Colts 20, Texans 18
Dalton Miller: Colts 22, Texans 19
Dallas Robinson: Colts 16, Texans 13
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Betting line
Vikings -6; Vikings -250, Bears +205; O/U 45.5
It seems almost implausible that we still aren’t sure whether the 12-4 Minnesota Vikings are a good football team, but that’s where we are. All but one of Minnesota’s dozen victories have come by one score or less, while all of their losses have been by at least 11 points.
The Green Bay Packers destroyed the Vikings last week, and Kirk Cousins posted his worst QBR since Week 2 of the 2020 campaign. Justin Jefferson set a career low with just one reception for 15 yards. In Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota has tertiary weapons that should be capable of filling the void when opponents go all-out to stop Jefferson, but that didn’t happen in Week 17.
The Vikings fell out of the No. 2 seed last week, and they’ll need to win and hope the 49ers lose in order to climb back up. A victory against the Chicago Bears isn’t a foregone conclusion, but Cousins and co. shouldn’t have any trouble against a Chicago defense that has ranked dead last in efficiency since Week 8. And with Nathan Peterman taking over under center for Justin Fields, the Bears’ capacity for chunk yardage will nearly evaporate.
— Dallas Robinson
Adam Beasley: Vikings 27, Bears 18
Dalton Miller: Vikings 30, Bears 25
Dallas Robinson: Vikings 31, Bears 17
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Betting line
Eagles -14; Eagles -900, Giants +600; O/U 43
Jalen Hurts looks likely to return from a shoulder injury in Week 18, and the Eagles desperately need him back. Philadelphia failed to clinch the NFC East and home-field advantage over the past two weeks, and another loss on Sunday would open the door for San Francisco or Dallas to grab the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Even if the Eagles decide to reduce Hurts’ rushing attempts in his first game back, the mere threat of Hurts as a runner will open up Philadelphia’s offense. The New York Giants don’t have defensive backs capable of containing A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith, but it was Miles Sanders (17-144-2) who powered the Eagles’ 48-22 over Big Blue in Week 14.
Daniel Jones carved up the Colts’ defense in Week 17, completing nearly 80% of his passes for 177 yards and two touchdowns while adding 91 yards and two more scores on the ground. Brian Daboll has harnessed Jones’ athletic ability and helped him develop into a legitimate starting NFL quarterback, and the former first-round pick has made himself a lot of money this year. But with New York locked into the No. 6 seed, Jones and other key Giants starters may not even play on Sunday.
— Dallas Robinson
Adam Beasley: Eagles 30, Giants 12
Dalton Miller: Eagles 27, Giants 16
Dallas Robinson: Eagles 33, Giants 16
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
Betting line
Seahawks -6.5; Seahawks -305, Rams +240; O/U 41.5
Baker Mayfield has been playing better since joining the Los Angeles Rams, but that doesn’t mean he’s actually been playing well. There have been some high moments, but they are interspersed with much more frequent low moments. Mayfield is still holding on to the ball longer and having difficulty with strong decision-making, and he’s been helped out by a better receiving cast.
Geno Smith might be headed in the opposite direction, but he’s still fundamentally playing quarterback well and is a better player than Mayfield by a good margin. That wouldn’t matter if there were big defensive standouts or supporting cast defenses that favored the Rams, but despite both defenses having some established or up-and-coming stars, both have been big problems for their respective teams. And when both defenses are big problems, the better quarterback will likely swing the day.
There’s something to be said about how Sean McVay gameplans well for repeat opponents and his ability to exploit tendencies -– anything is possible, and McVay is a great coach -– but it’s more likely the Seattle Seahawks run away with it.
— Arif Hasan
Adam Beasley: Seahawks 26, Rams 16
Dalton Miller: Rams 18, Seahawks 16
Dallas Robinson: Seahawks 24, Rams 19
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Betting line
49ers -14; 49ers -1000, Cardinals +650; O/U 40
For the first time this season, we got to see Brock Purdy falter just a little bit. On top of that, we also saw the 49ers’ defense fall short in a big way for the first time since their last loss, a high-scoring affair against the Kansas City Chiefs. Defense is unstable compared to offense, but even the best offenses can stumble.
Luckily for the 49ers, that probably won’t matter against the Cardinals, who have neither the defensive chops to take on the well-designed offensive machine that Kyle Shanahan has built or the quarterback in David Blough, who was recently signed off the Vikings practice squad, to compete with San Francisco.
It’s unlikely that Blough will be able to dissect the 49ers’ defense in the same way that Stidham and the Raiders did, but it’s not impossible. And the idea that the Cardinals’ defense can hold back the efficient 49ers offense at the same time is asking a lot.
— Arif Hasan
Adam Beasley: 49ers 31, Cardinals 10
Dalton Miller: 49ers 30, Cardinals 13
Dallas Robinson: 49ers 28, Cardinals 13
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Betting line
Chargers -3; Chargers -180, Broncos +152; O/U 40
Under the new coaching regime in Denver, we got to see a more effective Denver Broncos offense for brief moments. That doesn’t mean much and probably won’t make a difference as they take on the Los Angeles Chargers. The Broncos’ offense is still a work in progress and perhaps won’t ever be completed in this form.
But by the same token, the Chargers’ offense has more work left to do to fully maximize Justin Herbert. It’s been a little bit better at doing that as of late, but not much. Nevertheless, having Herbert gives L.A. an edge over the Broncos. Both defenses are also struggling — the Broncos haven’t really recovered from trading away Bradley Chubb at the deadline, and the Chargers’ defense hasn’t recovered from signing J.C. Jackson in the offseason.
Unlike the Broncos’ defense, however, the Chargers’ defense is trending in the right direction. While assisted in part by weak opponents, the Chargers haven’t given up more than 20 points in any of their last four games, and that kind of performance could be enough to put them over the top against the Broncos.
— Arif Hasan
Adam Beasley: Chargers 22, Broncos 18
Dalton Miller: Chargers 27, Broncos 20
Dallas Robinson: Chargers 26, Broncos 15
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Betting line
Packers -4.5; Packers -220, Lions +180; O/U 49
The Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions are both on a late-season roll. The Lions are 7-2 in their last nine, and the Packers are on a four-game winning streak. Both have improved their defensive chemistry and offensive performance, though the Packers are doing it by way of a high-level quarterback finally getting in sync with his new receivers, while the Lions are mostly getting by with their replacement-level quarterback throwing to a gifted group of receivers.
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The Packers’ offensive turnaround seems quite a bit more reliable than the Lions’ explosive passing attack. Even defensively, the Packers look like they have a little bit more going for them. They’ve been comfortable finally modifying their defense to their opponent, and it has produced — shutting down the Vikings and Justin Jefferson along the way.
Similar defensive flexibility going forward will give the Packers a lot to work with as they continue to work out the kinks in their offense. The Lions don’t have that kind of flexibility, but they do have a strong history of surprising results this season.
— Arif Hasan
Adam Beasley: Packers 26, Lions 24
Dalton Miller: Packers 24, Lions 20
Dallas Robinson: Packers 29, Lions 26
Season standings through 17 weeks
Adam Beasley: 155-98-2 straight up, 115-131-9 against the spread
Dalton Miller: 156-97-2, 111-135-9
Dallas Robinson: 167-86-2, 117-129-9
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