While the NFL continues facing the task of rescheduling games, we are steamrolling toward the halfway point of the season. With the late addition of the Cardinals -7 against the Jets, we were able to salvage a 2-4 record last week, as we’ve been slowing down to a 12-14 record. Regardless, we are getting back on track this week and giving you the best NFL odds: here are the best NFL betting lines for Week 6.
Week 6 NFL Betting Lines and Odds: Official Plays
Detroit Lions (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 54
The Jaguars are arguably the most inconsistent team in the NFL. One week they’ll beat the Colts or take the Titans down to the wire, but in others, they will be embarrassed by the Dolphins or just entirely outplayed by a less talented Texans team who just fired their head coach.
I’m not saying I expected the Jaguars to be exemplary, but they could be better than the 1-4 record they currently hold. It doesn’t help that the defense can’t stop a nose bleed at times, and their pass rush can’t get any pressure, which puts all the pressure on Gardner Minshew to win the game. He is capable of pulling out the win occasionally, but not every week.
The Lions will be coming off a much-needed bye after Kenny Golladay spent most of the first quarter of the season sidelined with an injury that kept the Lions offense from reaching its full potential.
With a whole cast of playmakers now assembled and healthy for the Lions, I think they will start to show why I was so high on them coming into the season. If there were ever a week to emphasize the run game, it would be this one, as the Jags rank fifth in rushing yards allowed.
If Detroit can successfully use the run, it will set up play-action and give Golladay and Marvin Jones chances to break away from coverage on a deep ball. D’Andre Swift could have a big game as well. The Lions give him a decent number of targets out of the backfield, which has him sitting at 13 receptions. If they utilize the short passing game to Swift and turn those short passes into significant gains, that’s demoralizing to a defense.
The Lions are 1-1 against the spread as the away team, and the Jags have the same record at home, so we’ll have an even matchup this Sunday in terms of this specific matchup how the NFL odds stack up.
Jarrett’s Official Play: DET -3 (-130)
Of all the NFL betting lines for Week 6, this one could go either way. That said, the Lions are a better team than their 1-3 record shows. I like their offense more than Jacksonville’s and expect them to put up many points on a young Jaguars defense. If the Lions don’t leave Duval County with a win, it very well could, and should, be the end of the Matt Patricia era.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at San Francisco 49ers, O/U 49.5
It’s apparent the 49ers have lost a step since their Super Bowl appearance eight months ago. Some may chalk that up to the numerous injuries, including losing Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas for the year in Week 2, but this team isn’t clicking nearly the same way they were a season ago.
Jimmy Garoppolo looks like a mediocre quarterback at best, the secondary has given up three plays of 40+ yards, and the pass rush has netted just ten sacks, compared to the Steelers and the Rams who lead the NFL with 20.
Speaking of Los Angeles, they have done a complete 180 compared to last year. While their offensive line still isn’t great, they have somehow used that to their advantage. Instead of asking Jared Goff to hold the ball and let the play develop, Sean McVay has instituted more quick passes, screens, play-action passes, and sometimes all three in the same play to help this offense stay in rhythm.
All of these high-paced plays lead the defense to start creeping up in expectation of a short dump-off, which leads to the 50-yard touchdown pass to Robert Woods that we saw Sunday against Washington. Even when you think you have the Rams’ puzzle solved, they add another piece and throw you off your game.
Defensively, they have been very stout as well. While the Rams run defense has allowed 4.7 yards per carry, they’ve allowed just one run of more than 20 yards.
The 49ers are winless at home and have yet to cover when they are in Levi’s Stadium, going 0-3 against the spread. The Rams are 2-1 covering as the road team, and I expect more of the same Sunday. The NFL betting lines for Week 6 would suggest this phenomenon will hold true.
Jarrett’s Official Play: LAR -3 (-130)
The initial betting market suggests the 49ers will at least keep it competitive, but it’s clear that San Francisco is not as dominant defensively as they were in 2019, and the Rams are playing excellent football. They could very well be unbeaten right now if not for a questionable pass interference call against Buffalo in Week 3. I love what this offense has been doing, and expect a big day from Jared Goff.
Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens, O/U 46.5
The Eagles nearly completed a 17 point comeback at Heinz Field against the Steelers this past Sunday. Nonetheless, Carson Wentz made a lot of good throws to will them back into the game. It’s the same old story in Philadelphia; Wentz is trying to win with a lackluster cast of characters.
Many of us didn’t know who Travis Fulgham was two weeks ago, and he erupted for ten receptions and 150 yards against a Steelers defense that I think is better than Baltimore’s. One thing that Wentz needs to do, though, is cut down on the interceptions. If he gives the Ravens extra possessions, eventually, they will capitalize on them.
While Baltimore is 4-1, they haven’t looked good offensively over the last two weeks. They only out-gained Washington by seven yards, and Lamar Jackson only completed 52% of his passes against the Bengals last Sunday. It’s been the defense that has taken control for Baltimore, albeit against two teams that lack solid offensive lines, making it easier to get pressure on both Dwayne Haskins and Joe Burrow.
The Bengals and Washington both made it difficult for Jackson to throw and run. Aside from his 50-yard touchdown against Washington, he only had three yards on six carries, and only ran for three yards against the Bengals. The Eagles are third in the league in sacks and can apply the pressure necessary to make Lamar uncomfortable.
Baltimore is 1-1 against the spread as an away favorite, and this is the first time the NFL odds have reflected Eagles as a home underdog this season.
Jarrett’s Official Play: PHI +7.5 (-110)
The betting lines always seem to heavily favor the Ravens, assuming they’ll blowout each team they play. The Eagles defense will pressure Jackson and force mistakes. The NFL betting marketplace may not like the Eagles at the moment with the current odds, but they are showing improvement. Even if they don’t pull off the upset, they’ll keep things interesting until the last snap.
Washington Football Team (+3) at New York Giants, O/U 43.5
The story in Washington is their situation at quarterback, and my goodness, was it great to see Alex Smith play in a game again after that gruesome injury two seasons ago. Aside from that, the best thing in Washington right now is their young defensive front.
Four former first-round picks make up the Washington front four; Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, and Daron Payne. They are a big reason why Washington is fifth in the NFL in sacks and one of the best front fours in football.
The Giants are an inconsistent football team. Aside from finally scoring 30 points this past Sunday, they were averaging just under 12 points a game on the year, and Daniel Jones has thrown only two touchdown passes, which puts the Giants in last place in touchdown passes on the year.
The offensive line has done them no favors, as they’ve allowed the sixth-most sacks in the league (16), and their offense lacks any explosiveness, especially without Saquon Barkley.
The Giants are 0-2 at home against the spread, and Washington is 0-2 on the road, so we will see one of these trends break this Sunday. The Week 6 NFL betting lines suggest the Giants may get their first win, but Washington’s defense may have something to say about that.
Jarrett’s Official Play: WAS +3 (-110)
I like the betting line at three. The Washington defense will force turnovers and give their offense more opportunities to make a play. Eventually, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, or Steven Sims will make a big play. I like Washington to cover and get their second win of the year, keeping pace with Dallas to win the NFC East title race.
Cincinnati Bengals (+8) at Indianapolis Colts, O/U 46.5
The Bengals getting eight is one of the higher betting lines, and it’s in large part to how poorly they played against Baltimore. They allowed seven sacks, Joe Burrow had his worst game as a pro, and the offense looked terrible.
However, the Bengals covered in three out of four games before their game against Baltimore. The Bengals hadn’t lost by more than five points, and the defense looked solid against Baltimore, all things considered. They got pressure on Lamar Jackson, they held him to his NFL career-low in rushing yards, and he only completed 19 of 37 passes. Don’t write off the Bengals as a lousy team who doesn’t put up a fight based on one game.
The Colts are coming off a loss to the Browns in which Philip Rivers made too many mistakes for the Colts to capitalize on any momentum they had. Their defense picked off Baker Mayfield twice and allowed less than four yards per carry to the Browns rushing attack, but turnovers, including a pick-six by Ronnie Harrison, sealed the Colts’ fate.
The Bengals are now 3-2 against the spread, as are the Colts. Cincinnati is 2-1 as the away team while the Colts have covered in both games at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Jarrett’s Official Play: CIN +8 (-110)
The Bengals losing by 24 is such an outlier; NFL oddsmakers are begging bettors to take the Colts. The Indianapolis defense feeds off quarterbacks making mistakes, which Burrow doesn’t do a lot, only throwing three picks thus far. Indy may win, but I like the Bengals odds of keeping it interesting.
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Week 6 NFL Odds: Official Leans
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) vs. Cleveland Browns, O/U 51
The Steelers are 4-0 for the first time since 1979, the year the steel curtain won their final Super Bowl. Chase Claypool is coming off one of the best individual games in Steelers history, where he caught seven passes for three touchdowns and had an additional rushing touchdown. The defense did look worse than they have all season, though, allowing Wentz to lead a comeback in the second half after leading by 17.
The Browns are 4-1 for the first time since 1994 when Bill Belichick was their head coach, and Nick Saban was their defensive coordinator. Their defense leads the NFL in takeaways with 12, and their pass rush is making quarterbacks uncomfortable. That said, their secondary has been inconsistent, and they’ve allowed the third-most passing yards in the NFL.
Jarrett’s Official Lean: PIT -3.5 (-110)
The NFL betting lines for Week 6 started at -4.5 and the odds have already shifted by a point for the spread; the early betting marketplace favors Cleveland. The Browns pass rush is good, but the Steelers get rid of the ball so quick in the passing game that it almost wouldn’t matter.
Pittsburgh’s defense will force Baker Mayfield into at least one turnover, which Pittsburgh should capitalize on. The Browns do lead the NFL in takeaways, but the Steelers have just four giveaways this season, only one of those being an interception. That said, it feels like they are due for a bad game, and it could very well be this week against Cleveland.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, O/U 54
The spread practically makes this a pick ’em. Green Bay may be the most well-rounded team in the NFL. Their offense has yet to commit a turnover, Aaron Rodgers is playing the best he ever has, and the defense has come through in big moments.
And for what it’s worth, the Packers are the only team left in the NFL who’s both undefeated and have covered the spread in each of their games this season, according to the Packers/Bucs match up page at Sports Betting Dime. Take of that exactly what you will.
The Buccaneers seemed to be getting on a hot streak before blowing a 13-0 lead last Thursday night to the Bears. In the Bucs defense, Chris Godwin was sidelined with a concussion, and several calls in that game that went against them were questionable at best.
Jarrett’s Official Lean: GB -1.5 (-120)
The Packers are excellent, but they won’t win every game, and the Bucs are well-rested. Also, Tom Brady is going to be playing angry, following a bad loss to the Bears. The NFL betting marketplace has the odds for this game at essentially a toss-up, but don’t be surprised to see Tampa Bay hand the Packers their first loss. I lean Packers but I’m prepared for a back-and-forth football game.
Remaining NFL Games with odds:
New England Patriots (TBD) at Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs (TBD) at Buffalo Bills
Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings, O/U 55.5
Chicago Bears (+3) at Carolina Panthers, O/U 44
New York Jets (+8) at Miami Dolphins, O/U 47.5
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Dallas Cowboys, O/U 54