Arch Manning is finally QB1 at Texas, and the spotlight is burning bright. But while fans are already projecting him as a 2026 first-round pick, some respected NFL analysts are telling everyone to pump the brakes.
Draft Buzz Meets Real-World Reality
With Quinn Ewers off to the NFL, the Longhorns are officially Manning’s team. That alone is enough to light up social media with mock drafts and highlight edits. But two plugged-in draft analysts, Lance Zierlein and Ian Cummings, are making it clear: Manning may have the name, but he doesn’t yet have the résumé.
“Arch Manning has played in 9 games over 2 years with just 2 starts and has thrown just 95 total passes,” Zierlein posted on social media. “Peyton & Eli played four years of college ball. NIL is making college QBs multi-millionaires. Why do people think Arch is going to be in the 2026 draft?”
It’s a sharp reality check. The tools may be there, but the sample size is small — and history suggests the Mannings take their time.
Ian Cummings added another angle: money. Arch isn’t under pressure to declare early because his NIL value already makes him one of college football’s highest-paid athletes.
2025 Season Will Be Real Test
Manning may have the starting gig now, but this will be his first full season leading a top-tier Power Five program. The arm talent is there. The IQ is there. But we still need to see him operate week to week, under pressure, in hostile environments.
He’s not just auditioning for fans — he’s auditioning for scouts, too. Can he elevate a team? Can he stay consistent? Can he bounce back after a bad game?
If the past is any clue, don’t expect Manning’s name to be in the NFL Draft pool next season. Peyton and Eli both stayed the full four years, developing slowly and methodically. With Manning already cashing in on NIL and backed by one of the most calculated football families in the sport, there’s little reason to rush.
On the other hand, Manning does boast one of the higher ceilings in recent NFL prospect history. Based on his last name alone, he could follow in the footsteps of his family members before him and have a long, illustrious career in the NFL. Not to mention his elite skillset and an, albeit short, highlight reel that has NFL teams drooling.
