New York Jets coach Aaron Glenn is on one of the league’s hottest seats ahead of the 2026 season. Glenn finished his first season in charge of the Jets with a woeful 3-14 record, lagging in both the defensive and offensive metrics.
Analysts React to Aaron Glenn’s Bleak Prediction
On Monday, PFN’s fantasy football analyst Kyle Soppe predicted on X that Glenn had an astronomical 62% chance of being the first head coach fired next season.
“Some back-of-the-napkin math, landed on 62% chance that Aaron Glenn is the first HC fired. 6 of last 8 in-season firing happened before a home game — October often a winner for first fired, especially for teams without much hope — 8+ point dogs in Wk 3-4 —> Monday October 5,” Soppe shared based on his calculations.
Some back-of-the-napkin math, landed on 62% chance that Aaron Glenn is the first HC fired
– 6 of last 8 in-season firing happened before a home game
– October often a winner for first fired, especially for teams without much hope
– 8+ point dogs in Wk 3-4—> Monday October 5
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 17, 2026
PFN’s Matt Cannata agreed with Soppe’s assessment, summarizing the general bleakness surrounding the Jets every season.
“Not that the Dolphins have been much better, but at least they have given fans hope in recent seasons. The Jets? Just a disaster every year with the season over before it even begins,” Cannata wrote.
Not that the Dolphins have been much better, but at least they have given fans hope in recent seasons.
The Jets? Just a disaster every year with the season over before it even begins. https://t.co/VCVCVAukek
— Matt Cannata (@CannataPFN) August 17, 2026
PFN’s Jacob Infante was scathing in his assessment of Glenn’s first year in charge of the Jets, where they became the first team to end the regular season without a defensive interception since 1933. The Jets earned a PFN Defense Impact score of 59.7, the third-worst in the NFL.
“Yeah, I feel like there should naturally be a hotter seat for Glenn than maybe any other coach right now. The Jets weren’t in a position to contend last year, but for a defensive coach to struggle to field a competent unit on his side of the ball is a glaring concern, IMO,” Infante opined.
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NFL draft analyst Ian Cummings agreed with Soppe’s prediction about Glenn’s future.
“Given how badly last year’s finish went and how the Jets ownership cycle seems to be nearing another oscillation toward (warranted) impatience, I think this is the most likely call this year for sure,” Cummings posted.
Given how badly last year’s finish went and how the Jets ownership cycle seems to be nearing another oscillation toward (warranted) impatience, I think this is the most likely call this year for sure
— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) August 17, 2026
PFN’s Alex Kennedy suggested that Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles could be a candidate for the chop, but agreed with Soppe’s prediction nonetheless.
“Todd Bowles needs to go in Tampa,” Kennedy wrote on X. “Bringing him back after last year’s second-half collapse made no sense; ownership just didn’t want to pay two coaches after he was extended last offseason. The Glazers have never fired a coach midseason though, so Aaron Glenn is a safe bet.”
Todd Bowles needs to go in Tampa. Bringing him back after last year’s second-half collapse made no sense; ownership just didn’t want to pay two coaches after he was extended last offseason. The Glazers have never fired a coach midseason though, so Aaron Glenn is a safe bet.
— Alex Kennedy (@AlexKennedyNBA) August 17, 2026
In his full analysis, Sopped had mentioned that Glenn had a 62% chance of becoming the first coach to get fired, whereas Bowles had a 23% chance, Shane Steichen had a 5% chance, and 10% was reserved for other coaches in the league.
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“Over the past three seasons, six of eight midseason firings have come before a home game and in each of those years, we had a change in power before the end of October,” Soppe said. “The Jets are currently catching more than eight points in Weeks 3-4 (road games against the Lions and Bears) before a home game on October 11 (Browns).
“History says that these early firings typically come from teams with low expectations (+1900 to win the division) and either no direction at QB or such extreme youth at the position that a change is viewed as a move in the best interest of that QB long term.”
He continued, “Geno Smith isn’t Mr Right or Mr Right Now in New York. That skews the franchise to give the interim coach a real look at 2026 4th-rounder Cad Klubnik or the ability to finish the 2026 tank and choose a Tier 1 QB from the 2027 class (potentially his favorite of the trio should this disaster season go “right”).
Sopped added, “I started with the field getting 10% (surprising things happen) and 30-30-30 for Glenn/Bowles/Steichen… I shifted percentages around based on their expectations for this season… I like the Jets to open the season 1-3, and that roughly aligns with the win percentage of what in-season firings have had over the past two years (11-31 pre-fire).”
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Before turning to coaching, Glenn played eight of his 15 NFL seasons in New York after the Jets selected him No. 12 overall in the 1994 draft. He also played for the Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars and the New Orleans Saints.
He spent 2012 as a general manager of the Houston Stallions in the Texas Lone Star Football League before accepting a personnel scouting job with the Jets.
Glenn began his coaching career as an assistant defensive backs coach for the Cleveland Browns in 2014 before becoming the New Orleans Saints’ secondary coach in 2016.
Coach Dan Campbell hired Glenn as the Detroit Lions’ defensive coordinator in 2021. Glenn established himself as one of the league’s premier defensive minds, pioneering a defense that allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in 2023. In 2024, the Lions’ defense tied for the second-fewest passing touchdowns allowed.
Glenn was appointed the Jets’ head coach in 2025, and after a woeful first season in New York, he fired both his offensive and defensive coordinators, Tanner Engstrand and Steve Wilks.
The Jets’ head coach hired Frank Reich and Brian Duker as his offensive and defensive coordinators, respectively, to help improve the team’s fortunes.
