The 2026 NFL Draft yielded 10 quarterbacks total and exactly two in the first round. The betting market is split on which of them takes the field first in a regular-season game. On the latest episode of PFSN’s Football Debate Club, host Cam Mellor put the question to NFL analysts Jacob Infante and TJ Randall. Both landed on Fernando Mendoza for different reasons.
The Las Vegas Raiders spent the No. 1 overall pick on Indiana’s Heisman Trophy winner, but they also signed 37-year-old Kirk Cousins to a deal that guarantees him $20 million in 2026.
Kirk Cousins’ Decline Is the Fernando Mendoza Accelerant
In late March, Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak told reporters at the league meetings that he wants the No. 1 overall pick to sit if possible. “Ideally, you don’t want him to start from Day 1,” Kubiak said. The qualifier is doing the heavy lifting.
Infante believes Cousins’ recent struggles will lead to Mendoza starting sooner than later.
“I’ll take Mendoza. I think a lot of it, though, comes down to Kirk Cousins’ decline over the last few years,” Infante said.
“Each of the last three seasons, his PFSN QB Impact grade has gone down. Most recently, in 2024, he was 20th among all quarterbacks. In 2025, he dropped to 30th. You’re looking at a guy who’s 37 years old. He’ll be 38 by the time the regular season starts. I don’t anticipate he’s going to get any better. If they do go with Cousins, the decline is going to show, and it’s going to force Mendoza into the lineup.”
The public numbers reinforce the read. Cousins led the NFL with 16 interceptions in 2024 before Raheem Morris benched him for Michael Penix Jr. in Week 16. He stepped back in last November after Penix tore his ACL and completed 61.7% of his passes for 1,721 yards, 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions across eight starts.
That is a respectable spot-starter line. It is not a foundation to commit to for 17 games with a No. 1 overall pick standing behind it, particularly when Cousins turns 38 on Aug. 19, weeks before Week 1.
Randall framed his case through history.
“If my research is correct, you have to go back all the way to Jordan Love in 2020, the last first-round quarterback who didn’t start at least a single game in the rookie season,” Randall said.
“Ty Simpson’s situation feels really similar to that. Stafford started all 17 games last year. He has started 15 or more games in each of the last three years. The rest of the late-round guys, I don’t really think that they’re legitimate contributing starters right now. Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick is not a guy that they’re going to want to keep on the bench for very long.”
Matthew Stafford, the reigning NFL MVP, is obviously the Los Angeles Rams’ starter as long as he’s healthy. Sean McVay has said Simpson, taken No. 13 overall, is competing with Stetson Bennett for the backup job. Drew Allar landed in Pittsburgh behind Will Howard, Mason Rudolph, and the unresolved Aaron Rodgers question.
Carson Beck, taken 65th by Arizona, has the cleanest Day 2 path only if Jacoby Brissett’s contract dispute drags into the season. But the Cardinals also signed Gardner Minshew and Beck is a developmental piece, not a Week 1 plan.
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Mendoza is the clear-cut answer here. He logged 35 collegiate starts, finished the College Football Playoff with an 8-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and walks into a Kubiak offense surrounded by Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, and free-agent center Tyler Linderbaum. The Raiders did not move on from a decade of quarterback purgatory to spend a No. 1 pick on a clipboard holder. Even if Cousins starts Week 1, expect to see Mendoza shortly after, with every hiccup leading to calls for the rookie to play.
