The best division race this season is in the NFC West. All four teams are .500 or better, the only division that can claim that distinction. The division-leading Arizona Cardinals enjoyed a bye in Week 11, while the Seattle Seahawks stunned the San Francisco 49ers with a comeback win. The Los Angeles Rams stumbled but ultimately won over the New England Patriots.
Below we take a look at how the race is shaping up and provide projections to win the division via PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
1) Arizona Cardinals: 6-4
Arguably the most pleasant surprise of 2024, the Cardinals have won four straight since a 2-4 start. Kyler Murray and Co. continued their run with a convincing Week 10 win over the New York Jets. Their six wins this season are as many as the Cards had in their previous 30 games entering 2024.
Murray’s mobility has been a huge difference-maker. After an abbreviated 2023 coming off a Dec. 2022 torn ACL, Murray has run for 371 yards on 8.1 yards per rush. That’s the highest yards-per-rush average of any player with at least 30 carries this season.
Kyler Murray has his 2nd rushing TD 🔥
📺: #NYJvsAZ on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/p3zE6OhoJ2— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024
Arizona has a huge advantage over the rest of the division due to its last-place schedule, a reward for its 4-13 record in 2023. The Cardinals have the 10th-easiest remaining strength of schedule.
As a result, the Cardinals are the division favorites according to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, with a 67.5% chance to win the NFC West. Following its Week 11 bye, only one of Arizona’s final seven opponents is currently above .500 (the Minnesota Vikings in Week 13).
2) Los Angeles Rams: 5-5
Injuries appeared poised to submarine Los Angeles amid a 1-4 start. However, the Rams bounced back from a disappointing Monday night loss to the Miami Dolphins with a Week 11 win over the Patriots to get back to .500.
Los Angeles has gotten through most of the soft portion of its schedule and has one of the 10 hardest remaining strength of schedules the rest of the season. Three of its next four games are against the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, and 49ers, a stretch that will make or break L.A.’s playoff fortunes.
The Rams could face some tricky tiebreaker issues with a 3-4 conference record, although they are 2-1 in the division with wins over both the 49ers and Seahawks. After their Week 11 win, they have a 9.5% chance to win the division.
3) Seattle Seahawks: 5-5
The Seahawks had lost four of five since a 3-0 start but got back to .500 with a thrilling road win over San Francisco.
The offense still had significant pass protection problems, even with Nick Bosa leaving early due to injury and right tackle Abraham Lucas making his season debut. Geno Smith was sacked four times but made the important plays with his legs, including the game-winning 13-yard scramble touchdown.
GENO!!!! TD @SEAHAWKS!!
📺: #SEAvsSF on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/ATSZeKJaOe— NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2024
The Seahawks still have the furthest climb of all four teams despite sitting in third place, with only a 7.9% chance to win the West. That’s because PFN projects Seattle with the seventh-hardest remaining strength of schedule. But Sunday’s comeback was necessary to keep hope alive, and the Seahawks have a golden opportunity to build on that when they host Arizona in Week 12.
4) San Francisco 49ers: 5-5
The 49ers may have Christian McCaffrey back, but Sunday’s dispiriting 20-17 loss to Seattle highlighted the team’s persistent offensive woes.
San Francisco posted season-lows in total yards (277), yards per play (4.9), and net pass yards (146), while also committing a season-high six penalties on offense. All this offset a performance that should have generated more than 17 points, given that the 49ers had only one turnover and converted a season-best 63.6% of its third-down attempts.
The outlook isn’t rosier on the other side of the ball, as the defense lost its most irreplaceable player.
Defensive end Nick Bosa left in Week 11 and did not return after suffering what Kyle Shanahan deemed a new oblique injury (unrelated to his pre-existing hip injury). Entering Week 11, Bosa accounted for 41.9% of the 49ers’ pressures, the second-highest rate of any player (Trey Hendrickson has accounted for 42.3% of the Cincinnati Bengals’ pressures).
Nick Bosa said he overcompensated on his second sack and now both obliques are injured. He was then asked his concern level of having to miss some time:
“It’s definitely there. I don’t know, we gotta see.” pic.twitter.com/oYs1hcozuh
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) November 18, 2024
San Francisco has a difficult path ahead with the fourth-hardest remaining schedule. Its 1-3 division record and 3-4 conference record won’t do the Niners any favors with tiebreakers, either.
They still have the second-highest chance to win the division at 15.1% due to their projected team strength. Still, that’s a massive drop from their 26.6% chance entering Week 11, and those priors about the 49ers’ perceived superiority are becoming less and less relevant. They’ll have a pair of difficult trips to Green Bay and Buffalo coming up in the next two weeks.