The NFC South has been a tough division to watch throughout the 2025 NFL season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers took a commanding lead early in the season, but after their recent struggles, the division is wide open. Now, after Week 15, which team has a better shot of making the playoffs: the Bucs or Panthers?
Buccaneers and Panthers Battling for Division Title
One week after taking down the Buccaneers, the New Orleans Saints pulled off another divisional upset by defeating the Panthers at the buzzer in Week 15. That means the Panthers and Bucs both lost in Week 15, as Tampa Bay was defeated on Thursday night by the Atlanta Falcons.
Let’s break down the current NFC South standings:
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-7
2. Carolina Panthers, 7-7
3. Atlanta Falcons, 5-9 (eliminated)
4. New Orleans Saints, 4-10 (eliminated)
If the Panthers had defeated the Saints on Sunday, the Bucs’ odds of making the playoffs would’ve dropped to 27.4%. However, with the Saints pulling off another upset, Tampa Bay’s odds now sit at 66.4% to win the division and make the playoffs, according to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor.
Carolina now has just a 28% chance of winning the division and a 28.2% chance of making the playoffs.
Because the Panthers lost to the Saints, the Buccaneers can now clinch the NFC South by winning any two games over the final three weeks. Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule features a Week 16 showdown at Carolina, in Week 17 at the Miami Dolphins, and then in Week 18 at home against Carolina.
However, given Tampa Bay’s recent struggles, that’s easier said than done. The Bucs’ defense has been dreadful in recent weeks, and Baker Mayfield hasn’t looked like himself either. This once seemed like an extremely easy stretch where the Bucs could rattle off wins and gain momentum for a postseason run, but it has proven to be much more challenging than previously anticipated.
Todd Bowles is coaching for his job, as his seat is incredibly warm after the Bucs have lost five of their last six games, including embarrassing losses to the Saints and Falcons.
As for the Panthers, their biggest issue has been consistency; you never know which version of Carolina will show up on Sunday. It’s wild to think that this team has defeated the Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, and Dallas Cowboys, but then also lost two games to the Saints.
Bowles’ defense is the 20th-ranked unit the NFL with a 72.4 grade in PFSN’s Defense Impact metric. Carolina has also struggled defensively, as they are the 25th-ranked unit with a 68.4 grade in DEFi.
These teams have some ties too, as Dave Canales was the Bucs’ OC before getting hired as the Panthers’ head coach, while Mayfield has some bad blood with Carolina after a brief stint that ended with him getting cut.
