Entering the 2024 NFL season, many expected the NFC South to be one of the more underwhelming divisions in the league. And while the Atlanta Falcons had an opportunity to run away with the division midseason, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have since matched them.
With the NFL’s easiest remaining schedule, can the Bucs continue to overtake the Falcons? Using PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the NFC South’s various playoff scenarios
NFC South Playoff Scenarios | Week 14 Update
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Results
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) def. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
- New Orleans Saints (5-8) def. New York Giants (2-11)
- Minnesota Vikings (11-2) def. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
According to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, the Buccaneers currently have a 73.5% chance to win the NFC South, while the Falcons have a 23.6% chance and the Saints have a 2.8% chance. These numbers will update as games are finished throughout the week.
Below you can see the NFC South scenarios heading into Sunday.
Which Teams Are Still Competing for the NFC South Crown?
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have a 37.9% chance to win the division entering Week 14. Here is Atlanta’s remaining schedule:
- Week 14: at Minnesota Vikings
- Week 15: at Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 16: vs. New York Giants
- Week 17: at Washington Commanders
- Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers
The Falcons were at just under 61% to win the division entering Week 10 but have lost three straight games since to fall back to .500. They still have a pair of difficult road games remaining against likely NFC playoff teams in Minnesota and Washington, which is why they have lower odds to win the division than the Buccaneers.
Fortunately for Atlanta, it still controls its own destiny even after its losing streak. If the Falcons win out, they will win the division due to their head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bucs. The only way they will miss out on the NFC South crown is if the Buccaneers finish with an outright better record.
The Falcons’ schedule isn’t quite as easy as the Bucs’, but they still have the sixth-easiest remaining strength of schedule and will likely be significant favorites in three of their last five games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have a 58.8% chance to win the division entering Week 14. Here is Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule:
- Week 14: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 15: at Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 16: at Dallas Cowboys
- Week 17: vs. Carolina Panthers
- Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints
Week 13 was another great week for the Bucs, who narrowly avoided an upset loss to the Carolina Panthers and pulled themselves back to .500. Coupled with the Falcons’ loss, the Bucs have pulled even with Atlanta in terms of record. When Tampa Bay was 4-6, it had just a 38% chance to win the division.
Since the Bucs lost both of their games against the Falcons this season, they’ll need to finish with an outright better record than Atlanta to win the NFC South for a fourth year in a row. That task is aided by the easiest remaining strength of schedule. The only game where Tampa Bay may be an underdog the rest of the way is their Week 15 road game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The biggest obstacle for the Bucs may be their own health luck. Although getting healthier, Chris Godwin remains lost for the season, while the likes of Mike Evans, Antoine Winfield Jr., and Jamel Dean have all missed multiple games. Even Baker Mayfield has had a pair of injury scares against the Giants and Panthers. If the Bucs’ core players can stay out of the training room, the division could be theirs to lose.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints have a 3.1% chance to win the division entering Week 14. Here is New Orleans’ remaining schedule:
- Week 14: at New York Giants
- Week 15: vs. Washington Commanders
- Week 16: at Green Bay Packers
- Week 17: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 18: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Frankly, the Saints are barely clinging to inclusion in this list after a tight home loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 13. That defeat was coupled with another devastating injury, as Swiss army knife Taysom Hill was lost for the season.
New Orleans will lose any tiebreaker to Atlanta since it has already clinched a worse division record than the Falcons (the rivals split their head-to-head series), so any miraculous division-winning scenario for the Saints begins with five straight wins and at least three losses from the Falcons.
Even if that scenario does unfold, the common-opponents tiebreaker could come into play with Tampa Bay, which would need to suffer at least two more losses. With the Bucs facing the easiest remaining strength of schedule, finding multiple losses for them isn’t an easy task.
New Orleans enters Week 14 with a top-10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Playoffs feel much further away than a top-end pick, which could be valuable as an aging and pricy roster looks to rebuild.
