New York Jets record prediction 2022: Odds, props, and picks

Robert Saleh and the New York Jets are looking to vastly improve this year. What are the Jets' odds and record prediction for the 2022 season?

The New York Jets enter their second season under head coach Robert Saleh. Quarterback Zach Wilson is looking to establish himself as the franchise quarterback. Let’s examine the Jets’ current record prediction, projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and their odds to win the AFC East, AFC, and Super Bowl in 2023.

All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of Aug. 18 at 3:15 p.m. ET.

New York Jets record prediction 2022

Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars has provided odds and spreads for 12 of the Jets’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, New York is projected as favorites in three games and underdogs in nine. If their season matches those predictions, the Jets will have a 3-9 record following Week 13 of the 2022 campaign.

With five of the Jets’ 12 spreads within 3 points on either side, oddsmakers are certainly selling the team’s ability to compete at a high level in 2022. This young roster and coaching staff must overcome individual growing pains while learning to win. It’s going to take time, even if the pieces in place are the right ones.

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It’s fair to wonder whether they have the right pieces. Saleh was awful in his first season, producing a 4-13 team with the 28th-ranked offense and dead last defense. Wilson was also dreadful, and I’m highly concerned he doesn’t have what it takes to be an NFL starting quarterback long-term.

Nevertheless, the Jets loaded up to see if this regime has what it takes to produce a winner. Adding Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Jermaine Johnson, Sauce Gardner, and D.J. Reed highlighted an impressive offseason. Patience will still be needed.

New York Jets odds, picks, and props

Now we know the sportsbooks’ predictions for the Jets on a week-by-week basis. Let’s look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, conference, and the Super Bowl.

  • Jets win total: 5.5 (over -160, under +130)
  • Jets to finish fourth in AFC East: -190
  • AFC East winner: 28-to-1
  • AFC winner: 75-to-1
  • Super Bowl winner: 130-to-1

Forget the Jets’ long-shot betting odds for 2022. This year is all about whether they can hit the over on their win total. The Jets have the fourth most difficult strength of schedule of any team despite their finish last year.

This was a stroke of bad luck this team didn’t need. Wilson’s bad decision to scramble in the first preseason game also led to another bad turn of fortune. Though Wilson avoided the worst-case scenario of a torn ACL, he’ll enter the regular season coming off a knee injury.

Oddly enough, the Jets’ future odds might be better if Wilson had missed the entire season. Had the Jets replaced Wilson with Jimmy Garoppolo, for example, he would’ve raised the floor of the offense significantly. But their long-term hopes justifiably lie within Wilson’s hands.

While the Jets’ predictions might seem grim with such a low win total, this is a natural progression for a team with a barren roster two seasons ago.

MVP odds and player props

While the Jets’ MVP betting odds are bleak, this franchise has several key rookies who can compete for awards for their respective side of the ball. Their futures could bring tremendous value in 2022.

We also have several player props worth betting on. The Jets have several impressive playmakers. The hard part is figuring out the volume and a reasonable set of outcomes with so many young contributors.

  • MVP
    Zach Wilson 130-to-1
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year
    Breece Hall +850
    Garrett Wilson +1400
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year
    Sauce Gardner +1000
    Jermaine Johnson II +1200
  • Breece Hall regular-season rushing yards
    Over/Under 830.5 (over +100, under -130)
  • Elijah Moore regular-season receiving yards
    Over/Under 800.5 (-115)
  • Sauce Gardner regular season interceptions
    Over/Under 1.5 (over -120, under -110)
  • C.J. Mosley regular-season combined tackles
    Over/Under 139.5 (-115)

With Wilson’s status up in the air for the start of the regular season, we don’t have any props involving the second-year passer’s production. Keep an eye on that as we get a clearer picture upon his return. Considering he threw for less than 180 yards per game last year, we can likely assume he’ll have a line around 3,600.5 passing yards for 2022.

That means we’re looking at the rest of the roster for valuable bets.

The Offensive Rookie of the Year race includes two big-named rookies, with Hall as the No. 1 favorite in a weaker class. For as talented as Garrett Wilson is, he’s stuck in a low-volume offense where the quarterback might be the worst in the NFL. Hall is the better value there.

The Defensive Rookie of the Year Award is less congested but also more focused, with several highly-rated pass rushers at the top. Cornerbacks rarely win this award. Can Gardner be the first CB to win since Marshon Lattimore in 2017 and Marcus Peters in 2015? Prior to those wins, Charles Woodson last took the award home in 1998.

The Jets’ prop bets are even more enticing. Hall is very talented and playing behind an improved offensive line. His main challenge will be getting enough touches in a deep backfield that wants to rotate their bodies.

2022 picks

Finding an edge on the Jets’ win total is difficult. Their early-season schedule is brutal, featuring 10 straight games against teams expected to be in the playoff race. Their worst projected opponent until Nov. 27 is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Things get easier at that point. Home games against Chicago, Detroit, and Jacksonville are favorable. Winning in Seattle might be possible. But we’d need to see two upsets in addition to the Jets emerging as victors in those four contests.

It’s hard to see with Wilson being so bad last year. AFC East foes Buffalo, Miami, and New England are much more impressive rosters. The Bills are Super Bowl favorites, and we could see Miami win the Wild Card.

Though it’s a close call, I like getting plus value to take the under on a team that may need to make some tough decisions if they can’t reach six wins in 2022.

1u: Jets under 5.5 wins (+130)
1u:
Jets finish fourth in AFC East (-190)

Player props

Numerous factors aside from individual growth could affect how this season plays out for the Jets’ new acquisitions. A breakout from Zach Wilson in his second year is one of them. Improvement from this coaching staff is another.

If most usage stays the same, we have a decent idea of how these props will play out.

The offense was ineffective in 2021, but they spread the wealth according to talent. With Garrett Wilson on board, there will be fewer opportunities for Corey Davis and the tight ends. But the Jets found Moore to be highly productive in his role until injuries struck.

I like taking Moore’s over since he was the leading target on an offense that didn’t know what to do with him for the first six weeks of the year. Once he started getting featured, his average yards per game leaped from 15.8 to 65.5. To get to 801, he needs to reach 47 yards a game. That’s reasonable.

Hall’s number is more concerning. The Jets have a young stable of backs they’ve admitted they want to feed and don’t have a proven offensive line. While Laken Tomlinson and Duane Brown will help, neither is a sure thing to be a catalyst to jump-start the 27th-ranked run game that much. I like Hall, but I’ll fade his rushing total as we see Michael Carter dip too much into his volume.

Mosley’s tackling total is also a recommended play. He amassed a whopping 168 tackles last year and has ended up in the 130s twice previously in his career. Saleh’s defense funnels tackles to him. This is a huge total, but he’s in the perfect situation to hit the over.

1u: Breece Hall under 830.5 rushing yards (-130)
1u: Elijah Moore over 800.5 receiving yards (-115)
1u: Sauce Gardner over 1.5 interceptions (-120)
1u: C.J. Mosley over 139.5 tackles (-115)

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