The New Orleans Saints‘ preview for fantasy football wonders if Chris Olave can get on track, while the Indianapolis Colts’ fantasy outlook tries to get a grasp on this committee backfield.
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts
- Spread: Colts -1.5
- Total: 43.5
- Saints implied points: 21
- Colts implied points: 22.5
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr: While it’s true that Carr has cleared 300 passing yards in consecutive games — 654 passing yards over that stretch; 641 yards in his previous four games — with just two touchdown tosses on 105 attempts in those games, fantasy managers have hardly noticed.
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He’s not pushing down the field, and without much upside on a per-pass basis, there’s no path for him to matter in 1QB formats.
Gardner Minshew II: The Mighty Mustache threw for 305 yards and a pair of 50+ yard touchdowns while running in two more in an elite fantasy performance against the best defense in the league. As impressive as last week was, considering it sustainable is a bit optimistic for my liking.
Week 7: 13.3 yards per attempt, 8.7% TD rate
First two starts: 5.6 yards per attempt, 2.0% TD rate
Minshew faces a Saints team that prefers to sit back in coverage and rely on its sure-handed tackling. That sort of defensive game plan trends Minshew closer to his first two starts than his sparkling Week 7, landing him as a fringe top-15 QB for me this week.
Minshew’s a viable streamer due to the QBs in that tier being faced with tough matchups, but he’s not a priority plug-and-play option by any means.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara: He was a part of the team in 2019 that saw Michael Thomas haul in an NFL record 149 passes. If you gave Kamara 17 games at his current pace – 148.8 – he’d threaten that number!
He’s averaging 26 touches per game, per the Week 8 Cheat Sheet, and no fantasy manager cares that he only has one score this season because the catches are more than covering up for that flaw. Carr doesn’t appear healthy (and if he is healthy, he’s not confident). Until that changes, Kamara’s weekly floor is as high as just about anyone this side of Christian McCaffrey.
I do worry that the lack of touchdowns isn’t going to change with Jamaal Williams active. That means that if the volume dries up, there will be some floor concerns. We can address that if/when the time comes — for right now, he’s a safe RB1 who can’t be scripted out of the game.
Jamaal Williams: In his return from injured reserve, Williams was on the field for just 22.2% of New Orleans’ snaps Thursday night against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He saw five carries for 14 yards in that contest and doesn’t need to be considered for fantasy starting lineups.
That said, there’s a path for him to matter should he trend closer to a 50% snap share. This is a backfield I’d keep an eye on — the heavy usage for Kamara probably isn’t sustainable, and we know that Williams carries the goal-line responsibilities when he is right.
If possible, I’d keep Williams rostered before the Week 11 bye in hopes of his role being expanded.
Jonathan Taylor: Taylor and Moss split 70 snaps right down the middle, and that fact might result in the trade window remaining cracked open. Pounce if you can. Dates with the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans loom in the final two weeks of the fantasy season, and I think there’s a good chance JT is a top-five producer when we get to that point — a price you don’t have to pay right now.
On the third drive last week, Taylor had a 19-yard reception and a five-yard gain courtesy of a direct snap. The Colts are finding ways to get him involved, and with 23 touches last week, it’s clear that there are no physical limitations.
Taylor’s a borderline RB1 for me this week and certainly ranks as such for the remainder of the season.
Zack Moss: I mentioned the snap count last week against the Cleveland Browns, and that’s enough to keep Moss on the low-end Flex radar for me. But if I’m going to be elevating Taylor, that usage has to come at the expense of someone.
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In Week 7, he handled the second drive of the game, an indicator that the Colts plan to keep him involved … for now.
That drive was three straight Moss dives and a punt. Not ideal, but it’s worth noting that he was the RB on the field for Minshew’s RPO 17-yard touchdown run. That was a high-leverage situation.
I’ve got Moss ranked ahead of secondary backs like Jaylen Warren, AJ Dillon, and Tyler Allgeier this week but behind some underwhelming RB1s like Gus Edwards and Alexander Mattison.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave: A big-play threat like Olave isn’t supposed to have a higher target count (15) than the yardage of his longest reception (14). Yet, that’s what happened against Jacksonville on Thursday night in an endlessly frustrating performance.
Still, I’d trust the volume and talent. You can’t ask for much more than 10+ targets in five of seven games. Did I lower him in my ranks? Yes. Was it enough to put him anywhere near the decision line? Nope.
He has the edge in skill and opportunity over those who surround him in the WR2 tier of my ranks, giving him the greatest floor/ceiling combination.
Michael Thomas: The slot receiver saw some downfield looks and reeled in a highlight touchdown against the Jaguars. It’s growth you love to see, but his output was pretty similar to what we’ve come to expect.
He’s produced 42-65 receiving yards on 6-9 targets in all seven weeks this season, a production rate that makes him more of a bye-week Flex-filler than someone I’m actively looking to start regularly.
He’s unlikely to be the reason you lose, but without much upside, Thomas is only a viable Flex option if your team is a heavy favorite.
Rashid Shaheed: For the first time this season, Shaheed has seen 6+ targets in consecutive games. Given his skill set, that’s all I need to see if I’m considering rolling the dice in an underdog situation.
For his career, Shaheed has averaged 17.0 yards per catch. If there’s a place to play him, it would be on an extended week, indoors, and against a defense that doesn’t blitz much. All of those boxes are checked this week. Assuming this offensive line can hold up better than last week, Shaheed is in a spot to potentially pay off in a big way.
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I’m not doing anything crazy like labeling him the WR1 in New Orleans, but if you’re chasing upside, I could see him being the second most useful receiver in this game. After factoring in the downside, Shaheed checks in as a strong Flex in my ranks, the highest among the PFN staff.
Michael Pittman Jr.: With consecutive top-12 finishes, it’s clear that Pittman’s ceiling is higher in a Minshew-led offense than it was with Anthony Richardson. It’s worth noting that a 75-yard TD made a complete flop week into a valuable performance (one catch for eight yards on four targets for the rest of the game), but good players make plays, and Pittman did just that against the Browns.
He also dropped a potential 15-yard TD in the fourth quarter, a play that he finishes more often than not despite a less-than-perfect pass. The combination (most weeks) of a high target count and low aDOT elevates Pittman’s floor, even if Marshon Lattimore is used as something of a shadow in this spot.
Pittman is my WR25 this week, ranking ahead of emerging stars like Jordan Addison and Rashee Rice.
Josh Downs: The 22-year-old scored (a 59-yard TD last week on a free play) in consecutive weeks with Minshew opening up this offense and has hauled in 18 of 23 targets during October.
Downs was Minshew’s target on his first pass against the Browns — not a surprise given the comfort he feels with the former UNC WR (over 25% of his targets have gone that direction).
It’s tough to elevate Downs into the top 30 given the depth at the position, but I do have him in the same Flex tier as both big-play receivers in the Jags/Steelers game.
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill: Like it or not, Hill has become a viable threat every week at the tight end position. He punched in a short score last week against the Jags on a direct snap, has 13 targets over the past two weeks, and is averaging over four carries per game.
If he was labeled as a WR, I wouldn’t care about his unique usage, but as a TE, every touch elevates Hill up the tears at the toughest position to fill in fantasy sports (and yes, I spelled “tiers” wrong intentionally).
Hill serves no purpose to you if your roster is blessed with an elite producer at the TE position. He’s not a special Flex option, but if you’re in the streaming business, he’s an unquestioned target.
Could the well run dry? Of course, it could. And I believe it will with time.
This offense as a whole is going to get healthy with time, and when that is the case, Hill’s role is the one that gets squeezed. Instead of cute designed Hill keepers, Williams is plowing forward. Instead of a bubble screen to Hill on second and short, Carr is looking to stretch the field.
You get the idea. But for right now, Hill is a fine answer to the question that we all hate to ask: What am I doing at the TE position this week?
Juwan Johnson: All reports are pointing toward a Week 8 return after a pre-game hamstring injury cost Johnson four games. How close he is to full strength is a question without an answer at this point, so I’m operating as if he will be a complement to Hill as opposed to a challenger this week.
I do believe this offense has the space for a tight end to see a handful of targets consistently, making this situation one to monitor.
Should You Start Michael Thomas or Garrett Wilson?
I prefer to chase upside at this point in the ranks, something that we have no proof of Thomas possessing through six weeks. If you’re looking for a floor, Thomas is the reasonable play, but assuming you’re in a competitive matchup, I’m comfortable swinging for the fences against a New York Giants defense that allows almost 61% of opponent yardage to come through the air.
Should You Start Josh Downs or Amari Cooper?
Give me Downs here. The Minshew experience has been a favorable one for all involved, while the Browns are hoping their defense can get them to the finish line. With Marshon Lattimore potentially spending time on Michael Pittman, Downs is a good bet to return to top-35 production this week, something I’m not confident Cooper can do.
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