Calling all bettors! While the New England Patriots are no longer the pride of the AFC — or even the AFC East — it’s hard to count them out entirely in 2023. Can this storied franchise promptly return to greatness? And more pressingly, how will free agency and the upcoming NFL draft impact their chances? The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
New England Patriots Super Bowl 58 Odds and Futures
Last February’s early odds for Super Bowl 57 offered clues on what sportsbooks were thinking and how that wove into the thinking of the broader betting market.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs were the top favorite (+650 odds) of winning the Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills were No. 2. Not too shabby as far as year-long predictions go.
But the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were Nos. 3 and 4, respectively — though, in fairness, Davante Adams’ status in Green Bay remained unclear at that point. The Tennessee Titans (No. 9) and Denver Broncos (No. 10) clearly underwhelmed, and the Philadelphia Eagles weren’t even in the top third.
And where was New England? Tied with the Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers at No. 10 with +2200 odds. But after the dust settled on the offseason, the Pats’ odds plummeted to +4200 — 12th worst in the NFL.
These days, the Patriots are back in the thick of things at +2500. But will we see a repeat of last year’s relatively muted offseason, in which the team surrendered cap space and a 2023 third-round pick (while getting a fifth-rounder in return) for a post-prime DeVante Parker? Or a draft in which they reached for Tyquan Thornton, and then bypassed several instant-impact receivers (Romeo Doubs, Isaiah Likely, etc.) for a No. 3 or No. 4 RB in Pierre Strong Jr.?
There’s a lot to like about the 2023 Patriots. But there are also warning signs based on missed opportunities last season. To better understand their Super Bowl 58 prospects, let’s dive into their 2022 campaign.
Mac Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Other 2022 Season Takeaways
In seven seasons from 1989 to 1995, New England finished below .500 six times. In the 27 years since, they’ve been under .500 on only three occasions — including two of the last three years. These are strange times for a franchise that’s tied for the league lead with six Super Bowl titles, and whose last “rebuild” occurred more than two decades ago.
The 2022 Patriots symbolized much of what’s made this team great for so long: an exceptional running game and defense, the latter of which fell apart with their playoff prospects on the line.
Let’s start with the backfield, where Rhamondre Stevenson (as expected) seized on a larger role and never looked back. Stevenson actually ran better as the season progressed, once again exhibiting elite tackle-breaking abilities while evolving into one of the NFL’s most productive pass-catching RBs.
Damien Harris, in fairness, couldn’t stay healthy. But also, in fairness, Harris exceeded 3.7 yards per carry only once in his final seven outings. I remain deeply confused as to why the Pats didn’t unload him before the trade deadline and am similarly confused as to why they drafted two seemingly low-ceiling RBs with little chance of usurping Stevenson these next few years.
Head coach Bill Belichick has often carried more running backs than he needs. When the rosters were loaded with talent, it was a luxury he could afford. But stashing four running backs — only one of whom demonstrated above-replacement-level abilities in 2022 — was a missed opportunity for a squad that had other holes to fill.
This brings us to the passing game, where rookie Bailey Zappe ever-so-briefly looked like their quarterback of the future. But Mac Jones held on and finished strong enough to warrant another shot in 2023.
MORE: Mac Jones Landing Spots
That said, his position atop the depth chart is tenuous at best. Across most metrics, Jones took a step back in his sophomore campaign. This remains a win-now club, and Jones needs to prove in September that he can elevate his team’s offense consistently.
Of course, it’s not all on Jones — even if he soaks up a plurality of the credit and/or blame. It’s little wonder why Stevenson led all Patriots with 69 receptions. Operating with a bottom-tier receiving corps, Jones leaned heavily on his backfield.
Thornton missed four contests while dropping five of his 45 targets (not good). De facto No. 1 WR Jakobi Meyers missed three games, while Parker missed four. Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne are tertiary options at best. Hunter Henry remains inexplicably underutilized, and Jonnu Smith’s $31.25 million guaranteed contract is still a bigger mystery than Bigfoot.
Jones has been throwing to a hodgepodge receiving corps for two years. Yes, Meyers is legitimately talented. He’s also the best of a relatively weak group, thrust into an alpha role due to a lack of better alternatives.
Finally, New England’s defense excelled for most of the first 10 weeks, yielding only 16.9 points per contest. But in their final seven games, the unit surrendered 25.4 points per game, while the team went 2-5. That’s no coincidence, of course. If this young unit gels in 2023, it could be a difference-maker while freeing Jones, Stevenson, and the rest of the offense to play a Patriots-style of ball that gradually wears down opponents.
In other words, if Jones has to throw 38+ times again, this team might be in trouble. But if he’s a glorified game manager with a strong backfield and even stronger defense, this franchise could make noise in the AFC.
2023 Offseason Moves
I’m very interested in seeing what this team does in the offseason. Respectfully, I thought they overreached for backup running backs and middling receivers last year. One significant WR addition and continued bolstering of their defense could transform the Patriots into a 12-5 squad, even in a highly competitive division.
MORE: New England Patriots Offseason Preview 2023
As a result, New England’s odds could shift wildly over these next few months. Let’s see how this all plays out
NFL Free Agency
March 15 Update: After losing Jakobi Meyers to the Raiders, the Pats sign JuJu Smith-Schuster. Not a bad swap. But Smith-Schuster just enjoyed a career-high 77.2% catch rate on passes thrown by all-world QB Patrick Mahomes. It will be interesting to see if he can sustain that efficiency/productivity on passes thrown by Mac Jones.
March 17 Update: There’s a scenario where the newly signed Mike Gesicki leads all Patriots in receiving yards in 2023. As with Wes Welker nearly 20 years earlier, the Miami Dolphins didn’t capitalize on Gesicki’s offensive attributes. Despite playing alongside fellow TE Hunter Henry, Gesicki represents a boon to an often stagnant passing attack. This was a brilliant signing for a playoff-asipiring team.
In the coming weeks, we’ll update this section with breaking news on other key Patriots arrivals and departures through free agency and trades, how it impacts their Super Bowl odds, and how it might inform our decision to bet on them to win it all.
NFL Draft
In early May, we’ll update this section on key Patriots draft picks and UDFA signings, with an eye toward any players who could help catapult them to “solid long shot” status or better.