Fantasy football managers will be paying close attention to this NFC North battle. The Minnesota Vikings‘ fantasy preview is centered around their ability to replace Justin Jefferson, while the Chicago Bears‘ fantasy outlook deals with the value of their backfield.
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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
- Spread: Vikings -2.5
- Total: 44.5
- Vikings implied points: 23.5
- Bears implied points: 21
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins. That, friends, is a list that includes one player who has multiple touchdown passes in all five weeks this season.
Yep, Cousins. He lacks the highlight potential and has seen his completion percentage dip with each passing week, but he continues to get it done. Every week.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
What is getting overlooked in the Justin Fields resurgence is the fact that this secondary continues to give up yards all over the place. In those two bounce-back games, Chicago has allowed 611 yards and five touchdowns through the air.
Cousins could see his efficiency bounce back (49 of 61 against the Bears last season, 80.3%), but how much will the absence of Justin Jefferson impact his ceiling? I had him safely inside my top 10 at the position when we thought Jefferson had a chance to go. But now, he slides in as my QB11 (just behind Jared Goff and Joe Burrow).
Justin Fields: Our big problem through three weeks was the play calling in Chicago, but things can flip on a dime, and they have for the Bears.
Over the past two weeks, Fields has thrown for 175-plus yards in the first half of each of those games, leading his Bears to a 48-10 scoring edge in those first 30 minutes.
We can give the players credit for making the plays, but the coaching staff also deserves credit for the early script.
17-game pace (per the Week 6 Cheat Sheet):
Fields, Weeks 1-3: 2,981 passing yards, 17 TDs, and 23 INTs
Fields, Weeks 4-5: 6,146 passing yards, 68 TDs, 9 INTs
Just in case you needed a picture of this turnaround, now you have it. He has posted the top-two passer ratings of his career over the past two weeks and looks comfortable leading this offense. He was successful as a passer against these Vikings in his one game against them last season (67% completion rate, supported three pass catchers to clear 60 receiving yards).
There is a top-tier of quarterbacks this week in great spots, but outside of those three (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson), you could argue for Fields as the next best option for this week.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison: He saved your bacon (does anybody understand why we use “bacon” in that saying?) with a touchdown catch in a game that saw Minnesota run the ball 18 times and throw it 47. That style of offense is never going to put Mattison in a good spot, that’s just a fact.
With that said, I’m not too worried about the Bears forcing a game script upon the Vikings the way the Chiefs did last week.
Say what you will about Justin Fields’ current run of production — he’s not an elite, game-changing type of quarterback. Over the past month, Minnesota has played two games against those top-tier quarterbacks (Mattison: 10.5 touches per game) and two against a lesser signal-caller (Mattison: 21.5 touches per game).
I have Mattison projected much closer to the latter than the former, and that is why he’s a top-20 play for me this week. It also should not be overlooked that he had a screen pass bounce off his hands last week, a play that easily could have been another 8.4 fantasy points on his ledger. The box score could have been better, even in a tough spot.
Cam Akers: He has exactly five carries and two catches in both of his games with the Vikings, a role that isn’t nearly friendly enough to make him of interest to us (out-snapped by Mattison 37-21 last week).
You could do worse as a back-of-roster stash, as Mattison isn’t exactly a proven talent ahead of him. Also, while this is a strong offense, he doesn’t need to be rostered as we get into the true grind of the fantasy season.
Khalil Herbert: The Bears’ starter will miss “multiple weeks” after suffering an ankle injury on Thursday night against the Washington Commanders. He attempted to return to the game last week, but he clearly wasn’t right and slid down without much contact.
The injury slows the momentum he was building over the past three weeks of 23 carries for 93 yards (28 carries for 179 yards over the past two.) I’m keeping him rostered until we get a firmer timeline, but the Bears don’t get their bye until Week 13, which makes this situation require constant monitoring through the coming weeks.
Roschon Johnson: The rookie left the Week 5 win in the second quarter with a concussion, so if we’ve learned anything from the first five weeks of the season, it’s that it generally takes 8-12 days to pass through protocol.
He has yet to get 10 carries in a game this season, and after catching six balls in his NFL debut, Johnson has just five catches in his past four games. Due to the injury to Herbert, Johnson should remain rostered in all formats. I’m just not banking on having him available for this weekend.
D’Onta Foreman: The veteran back has been a healthy scratch for each of the past four games after getting seven touches for 24 yards in Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers, but he will be called upon this week with the injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.
Foreman had a career year in 2022 for the Panthers (914 rushing yards while averaging 4.5 yards per carry and scoring five times), his first season with a consistent workload. That works out to 7.4 half-PPR points per game – production that is capped significantly by his lack of involvement in the passing game (34 targets in 44 career games).
It’s a light bye week, so hopefully, you don’t have to go this far down the rankings board, but if you added him this week, he should at least get you around 12 touches in an offense that is trending up.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson: “JJettas” hurt his hamstring in the second half of last week’s loss to the Chiefs and has been placed on IR as a result. He will miss at least the next four games, with his earliest return to action coming in Week 10 against the Saints. The Vikings don’t have their bye until Week 13 – the hope being that their star receiver can return before that.
MORE: 3 Potential Fantasy Replacements for Justin Jefferson
This injury stinks, but if you can survive it (or buy him at a discount from a manager who needs to win now), it’s worth noting that Minnesota gets Las Vegas, Cincinnati, Detroit, and Green Bay in Weeks 14-17 when most fantasy leagues crown a champion.
Jordan Addison: A receiver playing next to Jefferson has returned top-35 WR numbers in four of five games, and Addison accounts for three of those instances.
He saw a season-best nine targets in the loss to Kansas City, and while he failed to separate from WR K.J. Osborn in any of the usage metrics, the difference in per-target upside is becoming more and more clear with time.
With the news that #Vikings star WR Justin Jefferson is going on IR, should you target K.J. Osborn or Jordan Addison as a fantasy football replacement?
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Your instinct may be to upgrade Addison with Jefferson out, but I fear that the attention that would come with being the WR1 would offset any target boost. I highlighted Addison as the receiver I want to buy moving forward on the PFN Fantasy Podcast this week, and I have him ranked as a low-end WR2/strong flex option this weekend in Chicago.
K.J. Osborn: Osborn held the edge over Addison on both snaps (64-54) and routes (44-41), but he failed to reach 50 yards, despite a season-high in both catches (five) and targets (nine). Remove two catches from his 2023 ledger, and we’re looking at a low-volume option that is averaging under 10 yards per catch.
Osborn was a nice waiver claim this week, given the explosive nature of this offense and his sudden increase in the role. I still prefer Addison to Osborn, but both offer top-30 potential as Minnesota looks to change its identity without their best player for at least a month.
DJ Moore: The slate-breaking Week 5 performance of eight catches for 230 yards and three scores could have been even bigger (Fields misfired on what would have been a 25-yard touchdown) and has everyone on notice now. But let’s not act like this is his first valuable effort of the season.
Despite Fields working through some issues, Moore has three straight games with a score, has cleared 100 receiving yards in three of his past four, and has seen his targets continue to trend up. Last week’s domination of the Commanders will be his best game of the season, but it’s not as if he was struggling before the breakout.
Nothing the blitz-heavy Vikings have done this season has me thinking Moore will slow down in this spot. He’s a borderline WR1 for me this week and for the remainder of the season.
Darnell Mooney: You could argue that Mooney cut a route short, and it resulted in a big play early last week.
Even if that’s your stance, the fact that he only saw three targets for the rest of the game is a red flag.
His profile offers upside, but this offense doesn’t. DJ Moore was the only Chicago WR with a catch last week. That won’t always be the case, but he is the only one that needs to be rostered.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson: The low aDOT role drops the floor on Hockenson, but with at least eight targets in four of five games, his status as an elite fantasy tight end is going nowhere. Of course, being held out of the end zone in four of five games is troublesome.
That said, don’t lose track of the position Hockenson plays, and be thankful you are not wandering blindly down the TE streamer streets.
Hockenson is easily the most expensive tight end on the DFS main slate this week, and I have no issue in paying the premium in what profiles as an extreme usage spot.
Cole Kmet: Moore’s stat lines pop off the screen, but you could argue that the improved play from Fields is helping Kmet’s stock more than anyone. During Weeks 1-3, the tight end scored 15.9 fantasy points. Weeks 4-5 saw 36.8 total fantasy points.
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He is never going to be a high-volume option due to how this offense functions, but his 79.3% catch rate is useful if he is going to assume the secondary role in this passing game alongside Moore.
Should You Start Jordan Addison or DeAndre Hopkins?
The Week 5 vintage effort from Hopkins was great to see, but “great to see” and “sustainable” aren’t the same thing. The veteran was averaging under a fantasy point per target before the big game, a rate I expect him to return to.
Assuming you buy that projection, Addison is the play. Of course, we need to see how he reacts to the role promotion, but with a trio of top-25 performances next to Justin Jefferson, I’m confident he can navigate increased defensive attention.
Should You Start Alexander Mattison or Zack Moss?
As good as Moss was last week, we can’t say with confidence that we know what his usage looks like this week with Jonathan Taylor ramping up (seven touches on 10 snaps in his 2023 debut).
The Vikings brought in Cam Akers to provide depth to their backfield, but he’s not yet impacting my ranking of Mattison. Add in the potential for Minnesota to skew more run-heavy with Jefferson shelved and Mattison is the play for me.
