Mike Evans’ Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans spent the entire 2023 season proving he’s still got it. But after 10 seasons, he was set to hit free agency and possibly close out his Hall of Fame career with another team. Instead, Evans returned to the Bucs. What does this mean for his value in dynasty fantasy football leagues?

Mike Evans’ Dynasty Outlook

The most difficult players to value in dynasty are the older ones who are very clearly still at or near the top of their game. With the historically great 2014 wide receiver class now a decade old, there are a few of them out there.

Evans is one of the most prominent. But it certainly didn’t feel that way heading into last season. I had largely written Evans off. Looking back on it, I’m not sure why.

#Buccaneers WR Mike Evans is the 1st player in #NFL history with 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first 10 seasons. 🔥

Is Evans the most underappreciated receiver in the league? 🤔

PFN's WR Rankings: https://t.co/KHibAGv3ob#GoBucs | #PFN365 pic.twitter.com/DV4oO7Woz1

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 10, 2023

Sure, Evans’ 2022 season wasn’t as good as most of his career, but he still averaged 15.0 fantasy points per game. He didn’t exactly show signs of decline.

Moreover, he did it with some of the worst QB play in the league from a version of Tom Brady that was a shell of the most successful QB in NFL history. Baker Mayfield was always going to provide an upgrade, and that’s a position I held before the season. Yet, I faded Evans in 2023.

To be fair, I did have a reason. Under Brady, the Bucs were one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league. No. Scratch that. They were the most pass-heavy team in the league.

The Bucs threw the ball well over 700 times in 2021 and 2022. We knew with absolute certainty they were losing at least 100 pass attempts in 2023, if not more.

The volume concerns came to fruition. Mayfield attempted just 566 passes last season. It resulted in an overall reduction in volume for Evans. However, Evans’ target share spiked from 19.7% to 24.5%. That helped mitigate the loss of volume. What contributed most to Evans’ stellar season, though, was the massive increase in efficiency.

Evans was a monster downfield. He led the league in deep-ball targets with 36. His 14.1 aDOT (average depth of target) was 14th in the league. His yards per route and yards per reception were both top 15. And it didn’t hurt that he led the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 13.

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Evans has now put together 10 straight seasons of over 1,000 receiving yards. His 1,255 from last year actually marked the third-highest total of his career.

Despite being 30 years old, Evans looked as good as ever. While I don’t believe his skill set is the type that will age well, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline. There’s reason to believe Evans still has two more really good years left.

Evans’ Dynasty Ranking

Where does Evans land in the dynasty WR landscape as we look ahead at the next part of the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, examining where Evans sits in comparison to other WR3 and WR4 candidates at the position.

25) Zay Flowers | BAL
26) Brian Thomas Jr. | FA
27) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
28) Deebo Samuel | SF
29) Jayden Reed | GB
30) Amari Cooper | CLE
31) Mike Evans | TB
32) Davante Adams | LV
33) Christian Kirk | JAX
34) Marquise Brown | KC
35) Diontae Johnson | CAR
36) Xavier Worthy | FA
37) Cooper Kupp | LAR
38) George Pickens | PIT
39) Troy Franklin | FA
40) Terry McLaurin | WAS
41) Chris Godwin | TB
42) Keenan Allen | CHI
43) Calvin Ridley | TEN
44) Stefon Diggs | BUF
45) Josh Downs | IND
46) Dontayvion Wicks | GB
47) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
48) Adonai Mitchell | FA
49) Ladd McConkey | FA
50) Courtland Sutton | DEN

Should You Trade Evans in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Evans? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!

The first issue we had to get out of the way was whether Evans would actually leave Tampa Bay. Sure, signing with the Kansas City Chiefs or Buffalo Bills would’ve been a boon to his fantasy value. But staying in Tampa isn’t exactly a bad thing. If anything, it makes his value more predictable. We know what Evans’ role is. We know it works.

Perhaps just as important is Evans’ quarterback situation. Fortunately, we have that solved as well.

The Bucs re-signed Baker Mayfield to a three-year deal. That pretty much covers the rest of Evans’ career. Given how successful the Mayfield-Evans connection was last season, we have every reason to believe it will remain so until Evans is no longer good at football.

While I previously stated I don’t think Evans’ decline is coming this season, that doesn’t mean it won’t. For guys who look like Evans, the fall can happen fast. I don’t expect Evans to decline gradually. He’s likely going to go from a top receiver to not even fantasy-relevant.

I also have concerns about Evans’ health. Now, to be fair, Evans has been quite durable throughout his career. He’s played at least 15 games in all but one season (and he still played 13 in that one).

At the same time, Evans hasn’t been immune to injury. He’s appeared on plenty of injury reports. He’s just been able to play through them.

There was another top receiver who was frequently on the injury report but rarely missed games. You probably remember him. His name was Quintorris Lopez Jones. You might know him as Julio.

Through his 20s, Julio Jones was often on the injury report with minor nicks and bruises but was able to play through them. Once he got a couple of years into his 30s, those injuries started forcing him to miss games. I fear we may see Evans go down the same path.

Now, does that mean fantasy managers should trade Evans away this year? Not necessarily.

If you’re a rebuilding dynasty team, then Evans likely doesn’t have enough good years left to be of much use to you. Even if he plays at a high level for two more, it’s unlikely your team will be ready to really contend. You are better off trading him to a contender for some young assets.

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If you’re the contender, though, I am no longer in the business of bailing on productive players prematurely just to avoid getting caught holding the bag. Until we see some sort of indicator that Evans is losing it, keep rolling him out there, allow him to do what he does, and help you chase that championship.