Mike Davis Fantasy Outlook: Start or sit in Week 14?

It seems the Mike Davis fantasy football hype train lives to see another week as Christian McCaffrey is likely out of Week 14. In one of the best usages of FAAB money in 2020, Mike Davis is poised to have another solid week. Facing off against the Denver Broncos, what is the outlook for the Carolina Panthers’ RB?

Mike Davis will start again in Week 14 if Christian McCaffrey is ruled out

At first, we all thought that Christian McCaffrey would be back after the team’s bye week. However, it seems an injury that he sustained during the week off will delay that for at least one game.

McCaffrey sustained a quad injury that occurred last week while training during the bye and flared up on Wednesday. The Panthers’ star running back was then forced to miss practice on Thursday. 

“At this point, I don’t expect him to play,” Panthers head coach Matt Rhule told reporters Thursday.

McCaffrey has played just three games this season. He missed six games with a high ankle sprain suffered in a Week 2 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He then missed three more with the shoulder injury suffered in his return against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Mike Davis has been one of the best stories in fantasy in 2020

Don’t get me wrong, I have enjoyed what Davis has been able to do in McCaffrey’s absence. Though it does slightly pain me every time I see a highlight of him. Anyone who had the 1.01 and took McCaffrey, especially in rather large leagues, can attest to the pain we all have felt with the first overall pick.

Mike Davis and his fantasy season have been the prime example of how to spend your early season FAAB or waiver priority. We tend to think, “I’ll believe it when I see it.” Or we see it and then go, “Well it was a fluke, if he does it again then I’ll put a claim on him.”

If you did that, then you missed out on a top-12 RB in 2020. In full transparency, I have been guilty of this too. However, I would rather be wrong with the guy on my bench than be wrong and lose to him. 

Not every player will be a hit. You miss too and blow your budget on guys like D’Ernest Johnson. Mid-season waivers are also how you found guys like DJ Chark or Terry McLaurin last year. And this year, they have been Justin Jefferson, James Robinson, and of course Mike Davis. 

Since Week 3, Davis is the RB6 in PPR scoring

While he sits as the RB10, we need to remember that, yes, McCaffrey did play this year. However, since McCaffrey’s injury, Mike Davis has been about as good as it gets for fantasy.

On the ground, even behind a shaky offensive line, Davis has 125 rushes for 503 yards (4.0 avg) and three touchdowns. He has shined as a receiving back. Something that allowed OC Joe Brady and Rhule without needing to reinvent their offense. Through the air, Davis has 44 receptions on 54 targets for 225 yards and two touchdowns. 

In the 11 games he has seen action, Davis has seen five or more targets in eight of them, including Week 2, when McCaffrey played the majority of the game, seeing eight targets.

In Week 14, Mike Davis has a great opportunity to produce as an RB1 for fantasy

Not only will McCaffrey likely be out, but several offensive weapons are currently on the NFL reserve list due to positive tests or high-risk contacts. If they are out, this will funnel more opportunities Davis’ way against what has become one of the better matchups for running backs.

From Weeks 1 through 6, the Denver Broncos gave up only one touchdown to running backs. They saw 104 rushing attempts and allowed 3.67 yards per carry (382 yards). 

Since Week 7, they have allowed nine touchdowns on 179 carries while giving up nearly 4.8 yards per carry (857). Injuries have played a big part in this, especially the loss of IDL Mike Purcell, who served as the lead run stuffer.

The team did manage to get back WR Curtis Samuel, who has gotten involved as a rusher. We likely see him take a few carries or targets, but this will be the Mike Davis show in Week 14. He is a high-end RB2 who could easily climb into the RB1 ranks by week’s end for fantasy.

Mike Davis and his fantasy value is week to week, but so long as McCaffrey is sidelined, he is someone who needs to be started in all formats.

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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.