New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas’ dynasty value has been stuck in reverse ever since he broke the NFL single-season record for receptions. That said, receivers age better than most positions, and with Thomas entering his age-31 season, completely writing him off in fantasy football is dangerous.
What are realistic expectations for the former All-Pro in his final season under contract with the Saints?
Michael Thomas’ Dynasty Outlook
The case of Thomas is a frustrating one. He was a high-pedigree receiver out of Ohio State who hauled in 470 passes through his first four seasons and looked like the centerpiece of PPR dynasty fantasy football teams for years to come.
Should we have seen this disappointment coming? Injuries are next to impossible to predict, especially for a receiver who missed one game in four seasons, so that part would have been tough to get ahead of.
That said, Thomas was a volume-based receiver who broke out with an aging quarterback (QB Drew Brees was 40 years old when Thomas broke the reception record in 2019) and was beating defenses with his route-running savvy as much as anything.
That’s not to say that we knew that Thomas’ production was set to fall off a cliff, but his early career was about as optimal as it could have possibly gotten. That should have been factored into his stock.
Of course, that wouldn’t have dropped Thomas’ ranking as far as it has fallen, but it would have at least put the idea of selling high on him on your mind.
I’m not saying that Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua could be in a similar spot, but I’m not saying he’s not at least at risk of it.
MORE: Is Puka Nacua a Top-12 Dynasty WR Moving Forward?
Thomas has played just 20 games since the beginning of 2020. That’s not enough availability for any fantasy league, but with him dropping just three of his 141 targets over that stretch is at least a little encouraging.
New Orleans is still in the market for a reliable WR2 next to budding star Chris Olave and there’s a world in which Thomas can complement him as an underneath option.
TOP 12 2024 WR RANKINGS!@KyleSoppePFN has his top WR rankings for 2024 now available and these are 🔥🔥🔥
Who's missing? Who's too low?
Watch the full breakdown here ➡️ https://t.co/dsumfqVfwb pic.twitter.com/ydQRJeZb5H
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy)
Trying to determine exactly where Thomas fits in the dynasty rankings is as much feel as science –- we’re trying to forecast his health and involvement with little proof of concept recently. Sometimes, however, that’s how you find value in the trade market.
Thomas’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Thomas land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Thomas lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) DJ Moore | CHI
14) Nico Collins | HOU
15) Rashee Rice | KC
16) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Cooper Kupp | LAR
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) DK Metcalf | SEA
21) Zay Flowers | BAL
22) Drake London | ATL
23) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
24) Davante Adams | LV
25) Mike Evans | TB
26) Tank Dell | HOU
27) Jayden Reed | GB
28) Deebo Samuel | SF
29) Calvin Ridley | JAX
30) Stefon Diggs | BUF
31) Jordan Addison | MIN
32) Keenan Allen | LAC
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) George Pickens | PIT
35) Chris Godwin | TB
36) Josh Downs | IND
37) Gabe Davis | BUF
38) Michael Wilson | ARI
39) Jameson Williams | DET
40) Elijah Moore | CLE
41) Romeo Doubs | GB
42) Jerry Jeudy | DEN
43) Christian Kirk | JAX
44) Diontae Johnson | PIT
45) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
46) Khalil Shakir | BUF
47) Joshua Palmer | LAC
48) Jahan Dotson | WAS
49) Courtland Sutton | DEN
50) Jakobi Meyers | LV
51) Treylon Burks | TEN
52) Christian Watson | GB
53) Marquise Brown | ARI
54) Mike Williams | LAC
55) Tyler Lockett | SEA
56) Zay Jones | JAX
57) Jonathan Mingo | CAR
58) Quentin Johnston | LAC
59) Jalin Hyatt | NYG
60) Noah Brown | HOU
61) Tutu Atwell | LAR
62) Michael Thomas | NO
63) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN
64) Kendrick Bourne | NE
65) Adam Thielen | CAR
66) Cedric Tillman | CLE
67) Rashid Shaheed | NO
68) Brandin Cooks | DAL
69) Trey Palmer | TB
70) Darius Slayton | NYG
Should You Trade Thomas in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Thomas? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
Availability is the driving force behind much of the concern around Thomas, and that’s plenty logical, but are we sure that even if available, Thomas will be a viable option? He missed all of 2021.
- Before 2021: 5.3 yards per catch after the reception
- Since: 2.2 ypc after the reception
I’d be looking to move Thomas if presented with the opportunity, I’m just not confident that you’re getting that chance. In that event, you’re in a holding pattern. Thomas’ path to production is too clear to put him on your waiver wire, but his recent struggles are also too much to consider him as a fantasy starter anytime soon.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
Thomas is not yet a “get back anything you can” type of asset, so I’d recommend not simply offloading him to the highest bidder. If you can get a player that you view as a weekly Flex option and your team is in a position to win now, I’d go for it.
If you’re rebuilding and can recoup a reasonable pick in your rookie draft, I’d go for it. If not, sit tight and see what this preseason brings for the veteran WR.
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