Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. is the team’s clear WR1 and is projected for a heavy target share. With Anthony Richardson under center, though, the overall target volume is set to decrease from last season. What is Pittman’s fantasy football projection for the 2024 season?
Michael Pittman Jr.’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 16.6
- Receptions: 119
- Receiving Yards: 1,262
- Receiving TDs: 5.6
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Pittman This Year?
Two years ago, Pittman saw a 25.6% target share. Twenty-five percent is roughly the threshold we see from NFL WR1s. Unfortunately, that strong target share only resulted in 99 receptions for 925 yards and four touchdowns for Pittman due to poor quarterback play.
That served to depress Pittman’s 2023 ADP, which led to him being one of the best values in fantasy last season.
As the clear WR1 with minimal target competition, Pittman commanded an elite 30.5% target share, fourth in the league. His 2.08 yards per route run was good for 23rd in the NFL. All of this led to him catching 109 passes for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 15.6 fantasy points per game.
Pittman’s overall WR14 finish was phenomenal for fantasy managers, but what we really need to know is whether he can repeat similar numbers in 2024.
Last year, Pittman spent the majority of the season catching passes from Gardner Minshew. The hyper-mobile Richardson is going to throw much less than Minshew, and that has to be factored into our projections.
I have Pittman projected for a 30% target share, which actually feels a bit low.
Richardson is a mobile quarterback, which means that the Colts are going to run a fair amount of RPOs (run-pass options). When teams run RPOs, the overwhelming majority of the time, the “P” part is designed for the team’s WR1. For Indianapolis, that’s Pittman.
Therefore, even though the overall target pie is decreasing, Pittman may not see a meaningful dip in volume. Furthermore, Richardson projects to be a much better quarterback than Minshew. That should help boost Pittman’s efficiency, which was sorely lacking last year.
Despite finishing as last season’s WR14, Pittman’s ADP is down at WR17 heading into 2024. The baseline expectation of the WR17, which is a high WR2, is roughly 15 fantasy points per game.
Initially, I was significantly above consensus, ranking Pittman inside the top 12. I have since cooled on that take, understanding the risks associated with a mobile QB under center. But even if I overshot Pittman’s projections by a fair amount, it would take a lot for him to be a bad value at his current cost.
With that said, the pendulum seems to have swung too far in the other direction. If Pittman sees so much as a 25% target share, it’s difficult to envision him finishing any lower than WR24. He’s being drafted at his floor.
It’s as if the fantasy community isn’t properly accounting for the anomalously low touchdown total Pittman posted last season. Relative to his yardage, he should’ve scored around seven times, which is what I’m projecting him to do this year.
In my projections, Pittman comes out as the WR15, catching 106 balls for 1,167 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 15.59 ppg.
Understanding the risks posed by Richardson and potentially improved target competition from an ascending Josh Downs and rookie Adonai Mitchell, I ranked Pittman lower down at WR19. Even so, I’m still above consensus on him, as is the PFN consensus projection.
It’s important to note that while differences between scoring formats are often overstated, there are a select few players who are targets in one, but not the other.
Pittman projects much better in PPR than half or traditional standard scoring. He’s someone I will look to draft in PPR leagues but likely only take at value in half-PPR. I haven’t played a non-PPR league since 2006, but if I did, I would not be targeting Pittman at all, as his production relies heavily on receptions.
