The Indianapolis Colts will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 10. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Michael Pittman.
Is Michael Pittman Playing in Week 10?
Michael Pittman Jr. is still battling the back injury that the Indianapolis Colts initially thought would send him to injured reserve in Week 6. While he’d been able to fight through the issue, Pittman is now dealing with an additional finger injury and will not play in Week 10.
Indy had been managing his practice reps since. Pittman had gone DNP-Full on Wednesday and Thursday over the last three weeks but this week broke the trend with a DNP-DNP start on Wednesday and Thursday. Pittman didn’t participate on Friday; players that miss a full week of practice almost never suit up on Sunday.
Pittman has just two catches for 30 yards over his last two games combined. Josh Downs should receive plenty of targets as Joe Flacco’s default WR1 in Week 10, while Alec Pierce and second-round rookie Adonai Mitchell will be in for additional opportunities.
We’ll continue to monitor the Colts’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Michael Pittman’s Fantasy Outlook
With just two catches on 10 targets over the past two weeks, Michael Pittman Jr. has successfully worked his way out of my weekly top 30 — and I’m late to the party. Heck, I might be the last one to the party at this point.
I was hopeful that the return to Joe Flacco on a full-time basis would help, and it still might, but we have to see him prove it first as Josh Downs has established himself as the top receiver in Indy. Pittman has been targeted on under 20% of his routes in five straight games (2023: targeted on 27.7% of routes), a role that, without much in the way of per-target upside, isn’t going to get it done.
I’m not turning off the lights on MPJ altogether, but he has to sit down and think about what he has done to fantasy rosters through two months. I’m playing Courtland Sutton and Keon Coleman over him this week, as I am willing to take on some risk for the ceiling advantage that those two hold.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 10 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Michael Pittman’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 10
Since Pittman is out for Sunday, he is projected to score 0 points.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills’ Defense
The Buffalo Bills defense was always expected to take a step back this year, and that has been the case after being a top-10 unit for each of the last three years. However, the decline has not been as steep as many feared, but some of that might be about the opponents they have faced. Against high-potential offenses in the Ravens and Dolphins, they have been a bottom-three unit this year.
The Bills’ metrics are not concerning in the overall sense, other than their pressure rate without blitzing ranking 23rd. That has shown up in the games against the Ravens and Dolphins, resulting in their sack rate and pass success rate dipping against the better offenses.
Do you want more insight on all other defensive units across the NFL? Head over to our PFN Defense+ Rankings for analysis on all 32 teams.
Michael Pittman’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.Â
Conference Championship WR PPR Rankings
1) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at PHI)
3) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
4) Khalil Shakir | BUF (at KC)
5) Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Hollywood Brown | KC (vs. BUF)
7) DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. BUF)
8) Keon Coleman | BUF (at KC)
9) Dyami Brown | WAS (at PHI)
10) Mack Hollins | BUF (at KC)
11) Amari Cooper | BUF (at KC)
12) Curtis Samuel | BUF (at KC)
13) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at PHI)
14) JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. BUF)
15) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. WAS)
16) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at PHI)
17) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at PHI)
18) Justin Watson | KC (vs. BUF)
19) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. WAS)
20) Parris Campbell | PHI (vs. WAS)
21) Nikko Remigio | KC (vs. BUF)
22) Ainias Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: Buffalo is seeking a fifth straight win – they haven’t had a five-game win streak in the first 10 weeks of a season during the 2000s.
QB: In eight games this season, Josh Allen has been held without a deep touchdown pass seven times (on Sunday against the Dolphins, he attempted just three deep passes (five games prior: 8.6 deep pass attempts per game).
Offense: The Bills are turning the ball over just 0.44 times per game, the second-fewest in the NFL and down from 1.65 times per game a season ago.
Defense: Dink-and-dunk: opponents average a league-low 6.2 air yards per throw against Buffalo this season.
Fantasy: James Cook opened the season with a pair of games over 70 rushing yards – he’s reached 45 rushing yards in just two of six games since. He saved your day with a season-high five receptions against the Dolphins on Sunday, but that’s a dangerous way to live.
Betting: Under tickets have come through in five of Buffalo’s past six road games, but don’t mistake that for sportsbooks struggling to handicap this team – all of those games finished within three points of the closing total.
Indianapolis Colts
Team: Indianapolis’s offense has only been on the field for 25:41 per game this season, which is 100 seconds less per game than any other offense in the league.
QB: Over the past four weeks, Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson have made two starts apiece.
- Flacco: 5.7 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
- Richardson: 5.4 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
Offense: The Colts rank 30th in offensive success rate (ahead of only the Chargers and Browns).
Defense: After a brutal start to the season, the Colts own the second-best rush defense by EPA (first: Chargers).
Fantasy: Josh Downs has a 36.5% on-field target share from Joe Flacco this season (Michael Pittman: 19%, Alec Pierce: 10.3%).
Betting: The Colts are 4-0 ATS at home this season (they haven’t had a winning ATS season in front of their home fans since 2017).
