Soppe’s Week 10 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

It’s Week 10, and it’s time to look at every fantasy-relevant player in every game this week so you can make the best start-sit decisions for your fantasy football lineups.

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistics-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Week 10 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, QB | NYJ (at ARI)

Aaron Rodgers posted his second-best QB+ grade of the season on Thursday night, and it came in about as goofy of a way as you can imagine.

In the first half, he matched a career low for passing yards in a half (minimum 10 attempts) with 32, and the Jets’ fans wanted the franchise to be sold. In the final 30 minutes, however, he had as many touchdowns as incompletions (three) on his way to his best second-half passer rating (147.7) since being perfect in Week 11, 2021.

Rodgers was getting the ball out of his hands in a hurry and to the right guys — Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson accounted for 65.6% of his targets and a mind-boggling 85.8% of his passing yards. It goes without saying that rates like that aren’t sustainable, but I’m encouraged by his willingness to put his best players in a position to determine the outcome of the game (and his fantasy day).

The Cardinals’ defense ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in passer rating, yards per attempt, and pressure rate. Could this just be the beginning of an epic Rodgers run? Could the nation handle that?

I’m not sure the answer to either of those questions, but I can tell you that the four-time MVP is back inside of my top 10 this week and trending in an awfully optimistic direction given the upcoming schedule (Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Rams).

Anthony Richardson, QB | IND (vs. BUF)

Joe Flacco wasn’t good last Sunday night, and that, naturally, led to speculation about this 4-5 team going back to the random number generator that is Anthony Richardson. Yet, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Shane Steichen wasted no time in squashing that story and announcing the veteran as his Week 10 starter.

Can we drop Richardson?

I think so. It’s possible that the Colts reverse course should they, as expected, lose each of their next three games (Bills, Jets, and Lions), but does Indy losing give you any more confidence that Richardson will develop consistency with your fantasy season on the line? Are you going to feel comfortable in starting him should he get the nod?

My guess is that if you’re that thirsty for upside at the position, you’re fantasy team likely isn’t playing meaningful games in December. If I’m wrong about that and you’re hanging on for dear life, you probably can’t withstand a bye for your QB1 in Week 14.

As much as it hurts, this is a tough time of year where every roster spot has the potential to impact your starting lineup, and I don’t think you’re getting that from Richardson in standard leagues.

Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (vs. SF)

I’ll admit that when Baker Mayfield lost both of his star receivers, I didn’t imagine myself typing “longest active streak of multi-touchdown passes (six)” in November, but here we are.

I don’t want to say Mayfield is doing it with smoke and mirrors, but in those three games, 60.4% of his completions have gone to RBs/TEs, and that’s usually a target tree that caps upside significantly. That hasn’t been the case up to this point, though. However, you can put me in the skeptical camp when it comes to Mayfield’s ability to pull fantasy points out of a hat in this spot.

Nine times has a receiver reached a dozen PPR points against the 49ers this season, with CeeDee Lamb dismantling them prior to the bye (39.6 points, thanks to a 45.9% target share that resulted in him gaining 60.1% of their receiving yards).

San Francisco’s defense isn’t as scary as it’s been in years past, but the 49ers are coming off of their bye, with the expectation that Mike Evans (hamstring) will remain out.

The only quarterbacks that have even flirted with usability against the 49ers this season had access to one of the game’s finest receivers (Dak Prescott and Sam Darnold) or possessed unique athleticism (Kyler Murray had a 50-yard touchdown run). Mayfield checks neither of those boxes and sits outside of my top 15 this week despite the form he enters with.

Bo Nix, QB | DEN (at KC)

How fun is Bo Nix?

“Fun” isn’t always productive, but it does introduce a level of upside that is appealing for streamers.

Usually.

That’s not the case so much in this spot. The Chiefs are an above-average pass defense in both touchdown rate and yards per completion, traits that could result in Nix’s fifth finish outside of the top 15 at the position. The rookie is an athlete who can break contain and make plays, a fantasy-friendly skill set that you need to track as we come down the stretch but not one that you need to worry about in the scope of Week 10.

Brock Purdy, QB | SF (at TB)

Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, and Brock Purdy were the only QBs to finish Weeks 6, 7, and 8 as a top-10 fantasy signal caller. Purdy’s versatility and its impact on his fantasy status can’t be overstated — he has three scores on the ground over the past two games and has a run of 10+ yards in six of eight games. More important than his ability to do that is his coaching staff buying in.

In Weeks 1-7 last season, Purdy’s quick-pass rate was 74.1%. Since then, that rate has been trimmed to 55.4%. That tells me that this offense is getting more creative with their play-calling, and that should have Purdy managers excited. The Bucs have allowed a QB to clear 24.5 fantasy points five times this season, a run that includes each of their past three games.

Purdy ranks ahead of the streaming tier this week, and that’ll be the case every week moving forward.

Bryce Young, QB | CAR (vs. NYG)

By our QB+ metric, Bryce Young has shown some signs of growth lately, but that’s more of a note for loyal Panthers fans than involved fantasy managers. I think the second-year signal caller keeps his job, and I’d even go as far as to say that there will be multiple top-15 weeks in this profile the rest of the way, but projecting such a performance is irresponsible.

Part of my reservations when it comes to calling for a viable Young performance, even in a good spot, is because betting on him is a parlay that involves other inconsistent youngsters. What looked like a 26-yard completion in the fourth quarter turned into an interception last week, a swing that could have cost him upwards of eight fantasy points.

This is a game of inches, and I simply don’t trust this offensive environment to foster fantasy production.

Caleb Williams, QB | CHI (vs. NE)

Only once this season has a QB reached 18.5 fantasy points against the Patriots (Aaron Rodgers in Week 3), an interesting fact given that this is the seventh-worst yards-per-play defense in the league.

I remain enamored with Caleb Williams’ skill set, and if I’m a dynasty manager with him rostered, I’m more than happy to take my lumps this season with the understanding that high-end fantasy production could occur as early as this time next season.

Williams is battling through an ankle injury, and we haven’t seen enough consistency from him as a passer to consider him if the rushing upside is limited. At the moment, he checks in as my QB17 for Week 10.

C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (vs. DET)

I’m not sure what is more encouraging for C.J. Stroud this week, the hopeful return of his WR1 or the projected game script of what could be the most fantasy-friendly contest of the week.

It doesn’t matter.

Stroud’s 17-game pace this season in games started by Nico Collins is 4,709 yards, a far cry from the version of him that we’ve seen over the past month (under 200 passing yards in three of four games and just one touchdown toss over his past three). He was a top-10 QB in two of his first four games this season, a form I like him to get back to this week as long as reports around Collins remain optimistic.

As for the matchup, the Lions are better defensively than you assume from a rates perspective, but they do give up volume due to the efficiency of their offense; that is what we, as fantasy managers, are ultimately concerned with. In Collins’ healthy games, the Texans cashed in 72.7% of their red-zone trips, a rate that has tanked to 47.4% since.

​​​​I went over the impact of having a pedigree receiver last week in my “Blame NFL Teams for Failing Young Quarterbacks” piece, and the same logic translates here. Stroud hasn’t been usable for a month now but deserves to be in your lineup as long as Collins returns — both things can be true.

Cooper Rush, QB | DAL (vs. PHI)

You need Cooper Rush to pick up the Dak Prescott trends against the Eagles (five straight multi-TD pass games, averaging 305 passing yards per game over that stretch) if you’re going this route in a Superflex situation. Even then, we are talking about a player with just 275 passes (60% complete) on his NFL résumé.

The Eagles own the fifth-best defense on a yards-per-play basis this season, and that is why I have Rush ranked in the bottom five of starting signal callers this weekend.

Dak Prescott, QB | DAL (vs. PHI)

News broke on Monday that the hamstring injury that resulted in an early Week 9 exit for Dak Prescott will cost him at least a month in a season that is spiraling out of control in the Big D. This shouldn’t doom your fantasy roster; Prescott has only been a QB1 twice this season, so hopefully this injury doesn’t undo the good you’ve done up to this point.

Daniel Jones, QB | NYG (vs. CAR)

The Panthers have allowed over 19.5 fantasy points to a quarterback four times this season, and the names on that list aren’t exactly fantasy royalty (Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, Derek Carr, and Marcus Mariota), but I can’t bring myself to trust Daniel Jones.

For the season, Jones is pacing to set a career low in pressured completion percentage, and he has failed to throw a touchdown pass in four of his past six games. I have no problem counting on Jones in this spot in a Superflex setting and actually like him as an above-average QB2 in a setting like that. But when it comes to a single QB league, the range of outcomes is simply too wide to trust with many higher-floor options on the board.

Derek Carr, QB | NO (vs. ATL)

After missing three games with an oblique injury, Derek Carr returned to action only to lose his top receiver and lose to the hapless Panthers — yeah, safe to say that 2024 isn’t exactly going to script for the 33-year-old.

He threw a late touchdown last week to salvage a little bit of fantasy value, but when your path to fantasy production against the worst team in the league is to ask Foster Moreau to high-point a ball in the end zone, we are talking about a thin profile that doesn’t need your attention.

The Saints have punted on this season With Carr not set to hit free agency for another two seasons, I think we could see more Taysom Hill packages coming down the stretch this season in an effort to not put Carr in harm’s way.

Drake Maye, QB | NE (at CHI)

I don’t have Drake Maye ranked as a top-15 QB this week, but that’s solely a matchup thing as I think this kid has a skill set that is built for fantasy. Only once this season has a quarterback reached 17.1 fantasy points against the Bears — it was Jayden Daniels in Week 8, and he doesn’t get there if not for the Hail Mary.

Maye plays with a lack of fear; that should terrify his coaches as much as it pleases his fantasy managers. I’ll be calling his number down the stretch this season in DFS situations and maybe in deeper redraft leagues, but I’m saving those bullets.

Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (at DAL)

The expectation is for the Eagles to roll in this game, and when Philadelphia beat Dallas last season, Jalen Hurts was about as efficient as you could ask: 17-of-23 for 207 yards and a pair of scores to go alongside 36 yards on the ground and a touchdown.

Hurts has, of course, been nothing short of phenomenal this season (rushing TD or multiple passing TDs in seven of eight starts), and there is no form being shown from the banged-up Cowboys (104 points allowed during their three-game skid) to suggest that he won’t continue to produce at an elite level.

With his bye week in the rearview and a Washington/Dallas two-step during the fantasy Super Bowl period, Hurts is my QB1 for the remainder of the season.

Jared Goff, QB | DET (at HOU)

Since Week 3, Mason Rudolph has had the same number of pass attempts as Jared Goff despite making just three starts. Additionally, the recently benched, then starting again Joe Flacco has more.

The idea that Goff has completed over 81% of his passes in back-to-back-to-back weeks and ranks as QB19 in total points (QB22 per game) over that stretch is difficult to understand. However, Detroit has scripted him out of producing at all. That’s a problem considering that we all have the Lions labeled as the class of the NFC right now.

With Jameson Williams (suspension) back and a vulnerable Texans defense on the other side (24th in yards per completion and 32nd in pass touchdown rate), I again have a strong grade for the ever-efficient Goff. He looks a lot like 2023 Brock Purdy to me, and the floor that was created in such a season is comforting, even if the volume upside simply isn’t there.

If you roster Goff, you’re praying that the Texans activate Nico Collins this week, giving C.J. Stroud the ability to try to match this powerhouse blow for blow. He sits as my QB10 right now, but that’s atop a tier that extends to QB15 — and it wouldn’t take much to drop him.

Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (vs. PIT)

Jayden Daniels is pretty clearly “built different” than most, but mobile QBs have been the ones struggling against Pittsburgh this season. Bo Nix (Week 2), Anthony Richardson (Week 4), and Daniel Jones (Week 8) all failed to reach 8.5 fantasy points in this matchup while the three most productive quarterbacks were pocket-locked veterans (Joe Flacco, Dak Prescott, and Aaron Rodgers).

It’s not that Daniels can’t solve this defense, I’m just not sure we get a performance that resembles the Rookie of the Year. I’ve downgraded him and will be looking elsewhere in the DFS streets, but that doesn’t mean you get cute in a season-long format — he’s still a top-10 QB (QB1 on seven occasions this season) in my Week 10 rankings.

Joe Burrow, QB | CIN (at BAL)

Joe Burrow is pacing for 4,239 passing yards and a career-high 38 passing touchdowns, numbers that might shock the public given the Bengals’ losing record, but fantasy managers are well aware of his ability to put up points in a hurry.

We should see more of the same this week against one of the league’s most vulnerable defenses that allows a league-high 78.8% of opponent yardage to come via the pass. Burrow has six QB1 finishes this season including a pair of top-three finishes, one of which came in Week 5 against these Ravens:

• 39 attempts
• 30 completions
• 392 yards
• 5 touchdowns

You’re more than welcome to question if Cincinnati is live to pull off this upset, but there is no doubt that their quarterback is in a position to succeed. If not for the potential of the Ravens dominating the time of possession in this game, Burrow would grade as a Tier 1 option. As it is, he tops my second tier and that means QB5 for the week.

Joe Flacco, QB | IND (vs. BUF)

Joe Flacco had a fun game against the Jaguars, but in his two games since, he has 63 passes for 368 yards (5.8 per attempt) with as many interceptions as touchdowns (two). He probably gives this team a better chance to win, but not in a fantasy-friendly way.

The majority of QBs in today’s game offer more mobility than Flacco, and at least a quarter of the league has a more talented group of pass catchers to help elevate him. Combine those team-level concerns with an offense that is the fifth-slowest in the league, and I’m not sure this weekend looks much better for Flacco than last (16-of-27 for 179 yards and an interception in Minnesota).

Josh Allen, QB | BUF (at IND)

What more is there to say about Josh Allen? He’s dialed back the reckless rushing and senseless risk-taking, making him a more consistent player for both the Bills and fantasy managers. The physical runs are still a part of his game, but he doesn’t seem to be seeking contact the way he did in the past. That’s good news across the board.

Allen has multiple touchdown passes in four straight contests, a sign to me that he is gaining comfort with his teammates. The level of talent around him is only going to improve as Amari Cooper gets healthy and acclimated, positioning Allen for yet another Tier 1 finish at the position this week and this season.

If you’re curious, the indoor status of this game can’t hurt: Allen has only played inside four times in his career, but he’s cleared 26 fantasy points in three of those instances. I think Jalen Hurts’ ceiling is a touch higher, but ranking Allen as my QB2 this week isn’t a knock — if you have him rostered, you have a chance to win any matchup.

Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (vs. TEN)

Slowly but surely this Los Angeles offense is opening up, and Justin Herbert is benefiting. The franchise quarterback has produced consecutive QB1 finishes after not posting a single top-15 week previously, and I think there’s a chance we see viable production moving forward, something I wasn’t at all expecting to say a month ago.

The numbers last week were impressive, but 94 yards and two touchdowns coming on completely broken coverages need to be highlighted as plays that are difficult to bank on. That said, he did have a stretch of 13 straight completions during the game, further proof that he is gaining a level of comfort in this system that we didn’t see early on.

I’m still taking a cautious approach in less-than-ideal matchups (TEN: league-low 6.0 yards per pass against), but Herbert has my attention with plus matchups on the horizon (home games against the Bengals and Ravens in Weeks 11-12).

Kirk Cousins, QB | ATL (at NO)

There’s just no way around it — Kirk Cousins is the rare pocket-locked QB that fantasy managers can count on. His first-quarter touchdown pass to Drake London was a great example of why, as he is putting his playmakers in a position to, well, make plays.

Kirk to London for the @AtlantaFalcons TD!

📺: #DALvsATL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/FOZIladhpV

— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024

Funny how that works, isn’t it? Cousins completed 12 of his 13 passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns through four drives last week and could find such a rhythm this weekend against the second-worst yards-per-play defense in the league.

I’m not the least bit worried about this being a rematch of a game that saw Cousins struggle (21-of-35 for 238 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception) as these are two teams headed in opposite directions. Captain Kirk resides inside of my top 10 at the position this week, and I’m locking him in wherever I have him.

Kyler Murray, QB | ARI (vs. NYJ)

Five times this season has a QB run for 30 yards or a score against the Jets, and those are the top-five fantasy outputs by a signal caller in this matchup this season. I’ll admit that it’s been a low bar to clear due to the stingy nature of the Jets, but that just further highlights the need for versatility.

Kyler Murray has had his ups and downs this season, but he has found a way to record five QB1 finishes, and I think he will make it six this weekend, even in a less-than-ideal spot. Against the best yards-per-play defense in the league.

Murray has a 20-yard scamper in five games this season and is pacing for the second-best yards per pass attempt season of his career. If you believe that Aaron Rodgers figured things out last week, then you believe that Murray will be in catch-up mode, and I’m perfectly fine with that.

Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (vs. CIN)

Against the vaunted Denver Broncos defense last week, Lamar Jackson completed 11 of 12 passes for 208 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the first half alone, eliminating any doubt as to the outcome of the game or the ability of anyone in this league to slow him down.

Back in Week 5, he was fantasy’s QB3 against these Bengals with 348 yards and four touchdowns through the air with another 55 on the ground. I don’t know about you, but I haven’t seen much from Cincinnati’s defense in the month since that masterpiece to suggest they are in a position to slow down the quest for consecutive MVPs. Could Jackson essentially decide your matchup before the weekend?

For the season, he has seven finishes as the QB6 or better, offering you an elite floor to complement a ceiling that is as high as any in the sport. He’s cleared 22 fantasy points in four straight prime-time games and has at least 39 rushing yards in all 23 career games under the bright light. You can poke a hole in most quarterback résumés, but Jackson isn’t “most” quarterbacks.

Mac Jones, QB | JAX (vs. MIN)

Mac Jones is a professional quarterback and should be able to keep the train on the tracks, but this is an offense that was borderline usable as it is, and that doesn’t change here.

The last time we saw Jones in a regular role was with the Patriots last season, a year in which he finished with more interceptions than touchdowns.

There’s no fantasy change here — you’re not playing the QB of this offense and all of the attached pieces come with more risk than reward.

Mason Rudolph, QB | TEN (at LAC)

Mason Rudolph has been … fine? That’ll work for desperate Superflex managers, though a date with the Chargers isn’t ideal.

The backup QB is averaging 41.3 opportunities per game (pass + rush attempts) in his three starts, so while we can question his efficiency all we want, volume like that will allow you to fall into viable fantasy production from time to time.

I’m not tempting fate with anyone attached to this passing game in Week 10, but I thought it was worth taking 60 seconds of your time to highlight what Rudolph has done lately (he was a top-10 performer in our QB+ metric last week!).

Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (vs. MIA)

Matthew Stafford has been a viable fantasy option in both weeks since his receiving reinforcements returned, and if you like the Rams to win this game, a third straight week is very much in play.

Stafford has won six prime-time games as a member of the franchise:

• 122.3 passer rating
• 9.7 yards per attempt
• 15 touchdowns
• 3 interceptions

With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua by his side, Stafford is a streaming option for me. Do I love the fact that Kyren Williams soaks up a bunch of scoring equity? I don’t, but with Miami posting the third-lowest sack rate in the league through nine weeks, my hope is that Stafford can connect on scoring passes of length so that we don’t have to sweat out run after run after run on the doorstep.

Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (vs. DEN)

Last season, Patrick Mahomes threw just one touchdown pass against three interceptions against the Broncos (two games and 78 pass attempts). In fact, the division as a whole has given the All-Pro problems recently.

Over his last five divisional games, Mahomes has totaled just six touchdown passes and an 87.2 passer rating, essentially the definition of ordinary. Before last week, that would be the perfect description of his 2024 season, but we saw him thrive when targeting DeAndre Hopkins against the Bucs in prime time and immediately got sucked back in.

I’m not ready to put him back among the elite at the position (Week 9: QB3, his first top-10 of the season), but I am willing to admit that the presence of an alpha receiver was a sight for sore eyes. You’re going to have a hard time turning anything close to a profit for what you paid for Mahomes this summer, but I have him valued as a starting option the rest of the way, not something I was saying with confidence seven short days ago.

Russell Wilson, QB | PIT (at WAS)

Russell Wilson has at least 260 passing yards without a pick in both of his starts this season, a level of production that may not seem extraordinary. But when you consider that the only other quarterbacks to string together two games like that this season are Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, and Justin Herbert, it’s a little more impressive.

Speaking of Herbert, part of the problem in his profile is the same as Wilson’s — his team doesn’t want him to put up gaudy numbers as that is not their preferred path to victory.

A player like Joe Burrow is put in a position to fall into fantasy value because that is what his real-life NFL team needs from him. However, if Russell Wilson can complete 70% of his passes and move the chains, Pittsburgh is fine with that and doesn’t need 300+ yards and a multi-touchdown showing.

That’s why I can’t yet rank him as a top-15 option. I could see him being as efficient as Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford, but the volume is likely to lag. Without much rushing left in his profile at this point, I’ll need to see him give us 20+ fantasy points again before projecting it within his range of likely outcomes.

Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (at JAX)

Sam Darnold was in control from start to finish against the Colts on Sunday night, completing 28 of his 34 passes for 290 yards and three scores in the win. He had two interceptions, but the overall efficiency was back to where it was early in the season as he seems to have rediscovered his footing after a messy game in London against the Jets (over 8.5 yards per pass in three straight games).

Jaguars’ pass defense, 2024:

• 29th in touchdown rate
• 30th in interception rate
• 30th in yards per pass
• 30th in completion percentage
• 32nd in passer rating

This Jacksonville defense is about as vulnerable as it gets. With Minnesota having very little room for error in the tight NFC North, I’d expect them to come in with a strong plan to pick at every weakness.

I’m not sure that Darnold will be a top-10 play for me in Week 11 or 12 (Titans and Bears), but I have no reservations about ranking him as such this weekend.

Trevor Lawrence, QB | JAX (vs. MIN)

Trevor Lawrence has quietly been a QB1 in three straight weeks. While I’m generally a buyer of his talent, I’m not tempted to call his number this weekend, even with the form trending in the right direction.

The Vikings are borderline reckless when it comes to defensive play calling, and in the wrong spot, I think they will be gashed. However, this doesn’t appear to be that spot. In 2022, 5.2% of Lawrence’s passes against the blitz were touchdowns, a number that dropped to 2.4% in 2023 and sits at 1.7% this season through nine weeks.

Lawrence has punched in a few short scores lately, but with only one effort of 20+ rushing yards this season, the versatility that allowed the former Clemson Tiger to level up is no longer an option. I’m also not ruling out the potential for this to be a low-possession game for Jacksonville with their subpar defense facing the fourth-most methodical offense in the NFL.

I like what I’ve seen from Russell Wilson in his two starts, and I’d rather take a spin on the Drake Maye rollercoaster over Lawrence this week.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB | MIA (at LAR)

Tua Tagovailoa has brought excitement to Miami, completing 53 of 66 passes (80.3%) over the past two weeks and executing this offense in the fashion in which it was intended.

The Rams have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five of eight games this season. On the fast track, Tagovailoa very much has the potential to add to that total in a performance that looks like last week.

Is there something to the bright lights to fear here? Over his past five prime-time games, Tagovailoa has just four touchdown passes against seven interceptions, scoring under 13 fantasy points in each of those instances.

I’m more encouraged by the matchup than I am worried about the prime-time numbers, and that lands Tagovailoa as my QB12, ranking in the middle of a tier that stretches from QB8-16.

Will Levis, QB | TEN (at LAC)

Will Levis’ right shoulder injury continues to nag at him, and it resulted in a third straight DNP last week. Levis doesn’t have a finish better than QB20 this season and should be off of fantasy radars, but if you’re holding onto hope in 2QB formats, I’d try hard to keep him rostered.

No, I don’t think Lewvis is going to light the fantasy world ablaze anytime soon, but a quarterback past his bye with some favorable spots down the stretch might be able to offer enough production to crack your line.

• Week 14 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
• Week 15 v. Cincinnati Bengals
• Week 16 at Indianapolis Colts
• Week 17 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Nobody is going to blame you for cutting ties, but many custom leagues come with deep benches, and Tennessee is motivated to see what its 2023 second-round pick has to offer when it comes to building out its future plans (Mason Rudolph is an unrestricted free agent after this season).

Week 10 Fantasy Football Running Backs

Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (at JAX)

Aaron Jones has one of the more unique profiles among running backs. On one hand, he’s gained just 122 yards on 40 carries over the past two weeks, both in favorable matchups (Rams and Colts). On the other, he has a catch of 14+ yards in seven straight games and has at least four red-zone touches in five of his past seven games.

The Jaguars are the second-worst red-zone defense in the league, allowing a touchdown on 69.7% of trips, and that is more than enough to start Jones with confidence. That said, I want it on record that I still have questions about this Vikings team; if those concerns come through, Jones’ efficiency struggles could prove to be costly when your league is on the line.

• Weeks 1-7: 7.6% over expectation
• Weeks 8-9: 35% below expectation

Alvin Kamara, RB | NO (vs. ATL)

Alvin Kamara picked up 20 yards on New Orleans’ first offensive play last week and now has four top-10 finishes this season. The Saints came up short in the first meeting with the Falcons, but it wasn’t due to a lack of getting Kamara involved (26 touches for 119 yards and a touchdown).

I’ll never project that level of usage for a back, but it’s fair to say that Kamara will be one of the league leaders in total touches this week; that makes him a starter in all formats, even if you share the efficiency concerns that I have.

A running back has carried the rock 10+ times while seeing 8+ targets in consecutive games just three times this season:

• Alvin Kamara (Weeks 4-6)
• De’Von Achane (Weeks 8-9)
• Alvin Kamara (Weeks 8-9)

The Saints are running out of options and Kamara is the type of talent that will turn volume into fantasy production, even if it’s by way of checkdowns in bulk.

Antonio Gibson, RB | NE (at CHI)

Week 9 saw Antonio Gibson play a season-low 12.3% of New England’s offensive snaps, and he’s well off of the Flex radar at this point with no more than five touches in three straight games.

I’m not sold he’s a very valuable handcuff, as I think this offense would put more on Drake Maye’s shoulders instead of putting significant work in front of Gibson should Rhamondre Stevenson get hurt. That thought process puts him on the chopping block if you find yourself desperate for Flex options as we approach these bye-heavy weeks.

Austin Ekeler, RB | WAS (vs. PIT)

Austin Ekeler assumed the lead role in the Week 9 win over the Giants with Brian Robinson Jr. sidelined, and that meant 14 touches. The veteran back spent this summer saying that he wasn’t ready to handle a significant workload, which is why he moved on from the Chargers.

The production was there in a good matchup (83 yards and a touchdown), but if 14 touches is the absolute ceiling, I’m going to have a hard time ranking him as a legitimate Flex option when Robinson is active (expected to be the case this season).

Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been impressed with how hard Ekeler has run this season. But without average volume in an offense that has a mobile quarterback, I’m not comfortable counting on this profile. Assuming Robinson checks all medical boxes this week, Ekeler is going to be in the RB30 fringe, and that’s only a starter in some spots.

Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (at NO)

Bijan Robinson has four straight RB1 finishes, proving worthy of all of the expectations we’ve placed upon him. Unlike last season, the Falcons seem to appreciate what they have in their RB1. Their first three scripted plays last week:

• Nine-yard Robinson rush
• Five-yard Robinson rush
• One-yard Robinson reception

In the Week 4 win over the Saints, Atlanta ran rarely but effectively (15 attempts for 88 yards, 5.9 yards per carry), continuing a recent trend of Robinson having his way with the NFC South.

Production relative to expectation, divisional games:

• Week 18, 2023 at New Orleans Saints: +27.8%
• Week 4, 2024 vs. New Orleans Saints: +26.9%
• Week 5, 2024 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +2%
• Week 6, 2024 at Carolina Panthers: +69.8%
• Week 8, 2024 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +36.9%

Robinson is a Tier 1 running back for me in Week 10 and for the remainder of the season in an Atlanta offense that I trust week over week.

Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (at ARI)

Braelon Allen’s run of production early in the season now feels like a lifetime ago. The explosive rookie entered Week 9 with a 20.5-yard rushing yard prop and never once threatened to surpass that number as he failed to clear five carries for the fourth time in his past five games. For the season, he’s been on the field for 26.2% of New York’s offensive snaps, not yet clearing 36% in a game.

It’s plenty fine to like the talent and roster the kid (14 more routes than rush attempts this season), but understand that you’re doing it as a high-end handcuff and not a player with a path to stand-alone value barring an injury to Breece Hall.

Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (at ARI)

For the first time since Oct. 2022, Breece Hall had 15 carries in consecutive games. We’ve seen a handful of running backs break out in a big way this season, and while Hall isn’t yet on that list (4.0 yards per carry this season with just one score over the past six weeks), I very much think it’s coming.

• September: 5.8% of carries gained 10+ yards
• October: 17.1% of carries gained 10+ yards

It’s coming. I continue to be impressed with New York’s willingness to use him as a legitimate route runner (his aDOT is up to 1.0 from -0.5 last season, and even that only reflects targets — he’s running downfield far more than he did last season); with the Braelon Allen experiment seemingly over in terms of a committee threat, Hall’s best days of 2024 are likely ahead of him.

You’re playing Hall every week no matter what I say, but I think you should be excited about what he can bring to the table over the final two months of the season.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (vs. PIT)

A nagging hamstring injury cost Brian Robinson Jr. Week 9 after he wasn’t comfortable enough to suit up following pregame warmups. It was his second missed game of the season and the ninth of his young career.

We’ve seen hamstring injuries hinder the production of fantasy assets across the league this season, which makes this a situation to monitor carefully. Robinson has been productive enough to be considered a lineup staple (six top-25 finishes at the position this season) with volume (15+ touches in five of six healthy games, with the lone exception being a 33-point blowout of the Panthers, a game script that is unlikely to take place this week) driving the bus.

This pretty clearly isn’t a good matchup. Trying to gain yards opposite of a Watt is never an enjoyable way to spend a Sunday.

Nevertheless, Pittsburgh did allow a running back to clear 20 PPR points (Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Breece Hall) in each of its past two games. That duo produced 39.3% over fantasy expectation, giving me hope that this backfield can have some success, but it won’t be in the form of Robinson as he was ruled OUT after Friday’s practice.

Bucky Irving, RB | TB (vs. SF)

I’m as guilty as anyone when it comes to trying to make Bucky Irving happen, and Week 9 was a sobering reminder that we just aren’t there yet (10 touches for 34 yards). The rookie has been on the field for under 42% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps in each of the past three weeks, a role that is going to make it hard to return RB2 value, no matter how talented we think he is.

The 49ers’ defense isn’t as good as they were in many areas this season, but they are allowing 18.5% fewer yards per carry after contact to running backs. That’s a problem as that is where Irving is going to have to separate himself — Rachaad White isn’t a perfect back by any means, but he’s going to remain involved in the passing game for the remainder of the season.

It was White with the seven-yard touchdown run on Monday night — if Irving can show enough in the coming weeks to take over that role, he can force his way into the Flex lock conversation. But for now, he’s a situational play, checking in at RB30 in my current Week 10 rankings.

Chase Brown, RB | CIN (at BAL)

The Bengals went out of their way to bolster their backfield at the trade deadline by way of Khalil Herbert, a move that could be read one of two ways.

• They aren’t sold on Chase Brown as a bellcow
• It’s depth now that Zack Moss is on the IR

Realistically, it’s probably a combination of both, though Brown did show well for himself last week in producing his third RB1 finish of the season (32 touches for 157 yards and a TD against the Raiders). That said, the momentum is working away from Brown, and we know that Herbert offers a dose of upside (career: 4.8 yards per carry).

• Weeks 1-6: 25.2% over expectation
• Weeks 7-9: 13% below expectation

I’m pessimistic here. The Bengals have a pair of tough matchups coming (Ravens and Chargers) before they go on bye in Week 12. If Brown struggles to be efficient in those difficult spots, is this a full-blown committee as we work into December?

Brown is a low-end Flex this week, and that might prove to be the high-water mark for the rest of the season.

Christian McCaffrey, RB | SF (at TB)

Is it time? Will the industry-wide nightmare of not having Christian McCaffrey in our lives finally end on Sunday?

All signs point that way, and I’m operating under that assumption until I have reason not to. We can agree that Jordan Mason (three RB1 finishes, 5.1 yards per catch, and 7.2 yards per target) has been great, right?

Consider this: Mason’s expected PPR fantasy points per game this season is only 66.8% of what McCaffrey posted a season ago. If you want to be conservative with CMC in his season debut, go ahead and drop him down in your weekly rankings.

Maybe all the way down to RB5.

It’s difficult to do much more than that. McCaffrey is a unique talent in an offense built around his versatility. If you’ve waited nine weeks to have your first-round pick active, I can’t imagine a world in which you’re waiting to lock him into your lineup.

Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (vs. NYG))

This is a hinge week for Chuba Hubbard, as we are going to get our first impression of Jonathon Brooks. More importantly, the Panthers will get their first look at the rookie in a live setting and we will have the ability to react.

Are they going to slow-play things?

Are they going to pull a Zamir White and try to get a feel for 2025 at the end of 2024?

Their decision in that regard has the potential to swing fantasy leagues in a significant way. Not only does Brooks loom but defenses are wising up to Hubbard as the strength of this offense — in Weeks 8-9, 50% of his carries came against a loaded box (Weeks 5-7: 18.8%).

I’m starting Hubbard (NYG: third-highest percentage of yards allowed come on the ground) and sitting Brooks this week and will be doing the same until Carolina tells us to act differently, but I’m skeptical that either of these backs is going to be a top-20 option when we get to the final month of the fantasy season.

D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI (vs. NE)

D’Andre Swift’s Chicago career got off to a slow start, but he has four RB1 finishes this season and has been a top-20 producer at the position in each of his past five (all of which he either has four catches or a 35-yard gain in).

The Bears dealt away Khalil Herbert on Tuesday and are fully committed to Swift as their bellcow, a role that is going to land him as a fantasy starter every week. Just how high he can climb in the ranks will depend on Caleb Williams’ development, but that’s splitting hairs — you’re playing him and loving every bit of the role he’s locked into.

David Montgomery, RB | DET (at HOU)

David Montgomery has finished outside of the top 24 running backs just once this season and is coming off of his highest snap share of the season (58.2% in Lambeau with it raining sideways). I don’t think the uptick in playing time is anything to read into as the Lions play almost exclusively in weatherproof games, but his role as the drive finisher in one of the best offenses in the league has created a floor that few can match.

The Texans own the third-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, making them a poor candidate to slow down the machine that is the Lions (for people in my generation, that remains a weird sentence to type).

Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (vs. CIN)

Derrick Henry is “built different,” and there simply are no two ways about it.

I feel like we could start a Chuck Norris-like campaign surrounding just how different he is than other running backs, both current and historical. Henry has run for a score in 10 straight regular season games and is coming off his third multi-score effort of the season.

You could argue that he was scripted out of the first meeting with Cincinnati (44.1% of Baltimore’s rush attempts), and yet he still ran for 92 yards with a score. Henry has been a top-10 running back in six of his past seven and there are zero signs of fatigue in his profile.

Keaton Mitchell is nearing a return and could see action this week, a note worth having in your back pocket. He isn’t going to directly take food off of Henry’s plate, but if he were to show the explosive potential that we’ve seen from him in the past, that could result in quick possessions where Henry isn’t imposing his will upon the opposition.

Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (vs. CAR)

Devin Singletary’s stock this summer was expected to be front-loaded, and that’s exactly how it’s panned out.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. has usurped Singletary as the lead in the Giants’ backfield (Singletary hasn’t played 40% of New York’s snaps since September), and this isn’t an offense that has the potential to support two viable fantasy RBs.

If there aren’t any glaring options on your waiver wire, hanging onto Singletary as a Tracy handcuff is fine, but by no means is it needed. You’re not going to Flex him without an injury to the rookie.

De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (at LAR)

If you extend De’Von Achane’s numbers from the four Tua Tagovailoa starts for a full season, all you get is 2,266 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns.

No big deal.

He’s been a top-three running back in both of those games, and the creativity that made him special last season was on full display last week as Miami was able to get him a screen pass in the red zone, something that feels like cheating. He had a touchdown run in the fourth quarter that I thought showed some maturity as a runner by way of patience. That could result in him leveling up further if that’s at all possible.

Achane is on the fast track to paying off what you paid for him this summer and potentially even more come the fantasy postseason.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB | DAL (vs. PHI)

Disciplinary actions resulted in Ezekiel Elliott being left home last week as Dallas traveled to Atlanta, likely saving you from yourself if you were considering Flexing the veteran running back for reasons unknown.

Rarely is decline linear, but Elliott’s profile makes the mathematically inclined pretty happy:

• 2021: 66% snap share, 1% production over expectations
• 2022: 54.6% snap share, 0.7% production below expectations
• 2023: 51.3% snap share, 10.6% production below expectations
• 2024: 34.3% snap share, 13.4% production below expectations

The ‘Boys play their first of two November games against a top-10 red-zone defense this week, so even if you’re justifying holding ‘Zeke due to his role in close, you’re in trouble.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (at HOU)

Jahmyr Gibbs is producing despite not flashing the versatility we thought he’d need next to David Montgomery — the second-year back has failed to catch multiple passes in four of his past six games.

Weirdly, I’d spin the lack of passing game work as a positive looking forward, as it is a skill we know he has access to. Even without that to supplement his production, Gibbs has been a top-22 running back in every game this season, a run that includes three top-10 finishes.

Gibbs has scored five times in his past five games, and I think we get a sneak peek at the versatility that we believe he has in his bag. The Texans are the fourth-best run defense in terms of success rate against running backs this season. If the Lions unlock him this week, there’s no telling the type of run he can have down the stretch for fantasy teams this winter.

James Conner, RB | ARI (vs. NYJ)

James Conner continues to be a good story, but be careful — his PPR fantasy points per touch are pacing to decline for a third straight season (every year of his Arizona career), and this is still a player who has missed multiple games in every season entering 2024.

That said, it’s OK to be bullish in the short term and bearish long term. Conner has been a top-20 running back in five of his past six games, and I like his chances of continuing that trend with the Jets allowing 45.6% of yards to come on the ground, the highest rate in the league.

You’re starting him at full strength and feeling good about it, though I’d want to have depth behind him for the stretch run (even if it’s not Trey Benson).

James Cook, RB | BUF (at IND)

James Cook opened the season with a pair of games over 70 rushing yards — he’s reached 45 rushing yards in just two of six games since. He saved your day with a season-high five receptions against the Dolphins on Sunday, but that’s a dangerous way to live.

As scary as that profile is, I’m not the least bit nervous about this week against a Colts defense that ranks 27th against running backs after contact and 29th in RB rushing yards per game. Through nine weeks, Cook is the third most efficient running back when compared against expectations (Derrick Henry leading the charge with Jahmyr Gibbs second) and grades out as an RB1 for me this week.

Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (at KC)

Jaleel McLaughlin got Denver’s first carry last week, but Javonte Williams held an 11-4 edge the rest of the way and continues to hold the label of the primary ball carrier in Denver.

Reasonable minds can disagree on the value of such a role, but it’s his, and that much we can feel confident in for Week 10. The Chiefs own an elite run defense by any measure, and their offense always has the potential to force opponents into a one-dimensional script.

Chiefs’ run defense marks, 2024:

• Second in EPA
• Second in yards per carry before contact
• First in yards per carry after contact
• First in success rate

In his most recent game against the Chiefs, Williams led the Broncos to the upset win with 98 yards and a touchdown. Now, it did take him 30 touches to get there, but still. I’m on record with picking Denver to put an end to the undefeated season this week, and if you’re with me on the front, you’re likely to take a more optimistic outlook for Williams this week.

Williams is a Flex option that I probably like more than you. I’d personally play him over a Calvin Ridley or Michael Pittman Jr.

Jaylen Warren, RB | PIT (at WAS)

It feels like we’ve been asking the Steelers to feature their most explosive back for years, and they’ve finally listened — it just happens to be Najee Harris.

Jaylen Warren has yet to clear a 50% snap share in a game this season. Without a 20-yard gain on his 2024 résumé, what motivation does this team have to lean on him coming out of the bye?

This Pittsburgh offense is moving in the right direction under Russell Wilson, and that optimism requires Warren to stay on rosters as a handcuff to Harris. However, expecting him to be on the Flex radar at any point in the short term is far more optimistic than I am willing to be.

Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (at LAR)

Whether or not the Dolphins will extend their talented rookie as this season progresses is something to watch, but in terms of what we can project with confidence, there’s no way to justify considering him anything more than a low-end lineup stash.

Jaylen Wright played just 15% of the snaps last week and, even with various injuries to the skill position players in Miami, hasn’t reached a 34% snap share in six of seven games. His ceiling through nine weeks is RB34, and ranking him inside the top 40 is a leap of faith, let alone putting him near the Flex conversation.

J.K. Dobbins, RB | LAC (vs. TEN)

I think I’ve written regression notes in J.K. Dobbins’ section of this novel for a month straight, and I’m not going to stop now. In targeting a fantasy contributor at the running back position, I need a few basic boxes checked.

• Role
• Team support
• Versatility
• Matchup

I’m not greedy; I don’t need all of them. I want a minimum of two, though, and with each passing week, I get less and less sure about Dobbins’ profile. The role is there, sure, I’ll give you that, even with the Chargers opening up things a bit. But everything else?

Over the past three games, Dobbins has seen his yards per carry before contact drop by 69.6%, and that’s a tough way to make a living if your name isn’t Derrick Henry.

Pass-catching has never been a true strength of his. While he has caught multiple passes in six straight, an average of 4.5 yards per target isn’t symbolic of elite upside.

As for the matchup, the Titans are fourth-best in defending running backs in terms of both yards per carry and first-down rate. It’s easy to look at Dobbins’ overall numbers and lock him in, but he’s more of a low-end RB2 for me that carries just as much risk as reward.

Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (vs. DET)

For running backs like Joe Mixon, we know there is risk involved. He has over 2,000 career touches and joined a new franchise this offseason after spending his first seven years with the same one. In these spots, we usually settle for quality or quantity for touches and go our merry way with low-end RB2 production.

That’s not at all the case here. Since returning from injury …

• Week 6 at New England Patriots: 15 touches, 75.4% production over expectations
• Week 7 at Green Bay Packers: 27 touches, 21.3% production over expectations
• Week 8 vs. Indianapolis Colts: 29 touches, 9.1% production over expectations
• Week 9 at New York Jets: 24 touches, 10.4% production over expectations

Mixon has found paydirt in all four of those games. Mixon has a 20+ yard rush in all four of those games. Mixon has cleared 100 rushing yards in all four of those games.

He’s been great, and I think he will continue it through this week as the Texans’ best defense against the potent Lions might be their run game’s ability to keep Houston’s offense on the sidelines. I don’t mean to be a wet blanket, but I do want to provide some words of caution, and you can do with it what you’d like.

All of these fireworks have come with Nico Collins (hamstring) on the shelf. It’s also worth noting that all age cliffs work differently. Last season, we saw Mixon average just 3.5 yards per carry from Weeks 12-17. I’m not calling that predictive, but it is worth keeping an eye on – his yards per carry after contact declined by 19.6% over that stretch compared to the first 11 weeks of the season.

Be happy with what he has given you, and play him with confidence this weekend, but be careful.

Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND (vs. BUF)

Jonathan Taylor very much underwhelmed in a matchup that seemed gettable with an aggressive Vikings defense on the other sideline. Failing to reach 60 scrimmage yards in a close game isn’t what we expect from Taylor, but I feel strongly that the poor week was an outlier and not the rule moving forward.

Even in a bad performance where his offensive line was dominated, Taylor gained yardage on every single carry. He’s one of the most talented backs in the league, and that gives him the potential to produce against anyone, including the seventh-best red-zone defense in the NFL (Bills).

That said, Taylor’s path to elite production is going to be cloudy until this passing game demands respect. In 2022, he ran against a loaded box on just 23.4% of his carries. That number rose to 27.2% in 2023 and is up to 31.4% through nine weeks this season.

Taylor is a starter every single week in all formats. However, if he’s going to live up to the league-winning upside that I believe he has, Flacco is going to have to prove capable of moving the chains.

Jonathon Brooks, RB | CAR (vs. NYG)

The window is open for the rookie to make his return, and that’s promising. Less promising is the trajectory of this Carolina team and its motivation to ask Jonathon Brooks to carry this backfield the way patient fantasy managers would like.

Brooks needs to be activated this week in order for him to get any reps this season, so I fully expect him to dress, but you’d have to be in full desperation mode to look this way with more risk than reward in his immediate profile.

We’ve seen talented running backs make a big impact in our fantasy world despite playing for an objectively bad team (Tank Bigsby, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Chuba Hubbard, to name a few), and that means I’m leaving the dimmest of lights on for Brooks in redraft formats However, my touch expectations are limited for the rest of the season until I’m convinced otherwise, and that is going to result in him ranking well outside of my top 30 at the position.

Jordan Mason, RB | SF (at TB)

It’s not you, Jordan, it’s me.

And by “me,” I mean Christian McCaffrey. Jordan Mason has been about as good as fantasy managers could have possibly hoped for (17-game pace: 1,639 yards from scrimmage), but for a team with Super Bowl aspirations and some early season struggles to overcome as we begin the second half of the season, he’s set to transition to an accent piece of furniture as opposed to the big-screen TV in which the entire room is positioned around.

Could there be a ramp-up period this week that allows Mason to hold onto a Flex-worthy role? It’s certainly possible, but your backfield depth would have to be awfully limited to bet against McCaffrey in this capacity.

Julius Chestnut, RB | TEN (at LAC)

There was a groundswell around Julius Chestnut ahead of Week 9 with Tyjae Spears (hamstring) and Tony Pollard (foot) both banged up. The idea made sense in an offense that would prefer not to throw the ball in a significant way, but the Titans told us everything we needed to know by loading up Pollard with 28 carries (31 touches) instead of giving Spears’ usage to a secondary option.

No harm no foul if you added Chestnut last week with the hopes of improving your backfield depth. The move made sense when you made it and moving on a week later makes just as much sense.

Justice Hill, RB | BAL (vs. CIN)

Justice Hill holds value to the Baltimore Ravens as a reliable third-down option with a good handle on the offense and the ability to produce when needed (89.3% catch rate), but his fantasy stock is nonexistent at this point.

Hill’s 2-3 targets per game would be valuable if there was an 8-12 carry upside, but there’s not, and there shouldn’t be because that would mean passing on from giving Derrick Henry the ball.

Hill played a season-low 33.3% of snaps in Week 9, and I expect role reduction to be more likely than growth moving forward.

Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (vs. DEN)

The Kareem Hunt situation is a good example of listening to what the team is telling us. The veteran back was limited in practice ahead of Week 9, and yet, the Chiefs loaded him up with 27 carries in the overtime win over the Bucs.

What are they telling us? Well, it’s that they are willing to ride Hunt into the ground to earn wins now while they build out their optimal postseason roster.

Over the past month, Kansas City’s RB1 is on a 413-carry pace. This is a team that is racking up wins, and I think they understand that their current and future offense aren’t the same. So what’s the harm in burning out Hunt now?

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport broke news ahead of Week 9 that Isiah Pacheco (broken fibula) hopes to return late in November, a timeline that makes sense for a team that will want to ramp him up in their pursuit of a historic three-peat.

• Week 10 (Nov. 10) vs. Denver Broncos
• Week 11 (Nov. 17) at Buffalo Bills
• Week 12 (Nov. 24) at Carolina Panthers
• Week 13 (Nov. 29) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The next two weeks might not be perfect, but there is still plenty of value in Hunt in the short term. I’m operating under the assumption that Pacheco’s return to action and his return to the 20.5 touches he averaged through two weeks are not the same thing, giving me confidence that Hunt, at the very least, can be penciled into fantasy lineups through Week 13.

Be aware: Week 14, for some reason, is a massive week for byes (Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and Washington Commanders). If you’re dealing with a thin running back room, and most of us are, you need to be prepared for Hunt’s profile to carry more risk than reward at the moment in time.

Hunt is a locked-in fantasy asset until Pacheco returns — I expect this high-volume role to stick until then.

Khalil Herbert, RB | CIN (at BAL)

Khalil Herbert and his career average of 4.8 yards per carry came to Cincinnati at the trade deadline and is an interesting roster stash for the stretch run of fantasy leagues if you’re not buying the full-blown bellcow status of Chase Brown, but you’re drawing thin if you’re considering him in Week 10.

Not only does he just 10 touches on his 2024 resume, the Ravens own the fourth best rush defense per EPA and the short work week makes it unlikely that Herbert is involved in anything creative.

Zack Moss had been relegated to a 7-11 touch role prior to the neck injury that landed him on injured reserve and if Herbert can assume something in that neighborhood, maybe he flirts with Flex value as a bye week replacement — but not on Thursday night.

Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (vs. MIA)

Stop the presses, Kyren Williams was held out of the end zone last week, the first time in 11 regular season games. Fantasy scoring hasn’t been a problem for Los Angeles’ RB1 because of the touchdowns, but without the benefit of reaching paydirt last week, Williams finished outside of the RB2 tier for the first time this season and his inefficiency was highlighted.

This isn’t a particularly strong offense; considering Williams hasn’t shown the ability to break off chunk gains (he’s failed to have a rush gain more than 17 yards in seven of his past eight), the floor is concerning.

Of course, that doesn’t project as a problem this week against the defense with the highest opponent rush rate in the league, but I thought I’d plant the seed moving forward — there are a handful of running backs that are essentially bulletproof, and Williams isn’t at that level.

Najee Harris, RB | PIT (at WAS)

Joe Mixon, Bijan Robinson, and Najee Harris were the only running backs to post top-17 numbers at the position in Weeks 6, 7, and 8. Do I trust Harris at that level? Not even close, but there is no denying that he has looked spry lately. Given his role, facing the fourth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL doesn’t seem like the spot for the good times to stop.

Last week, all three Giants with a first-quarter rush attempt against the Commanders had a gain of 10+ yards in the first 15 minutes (Tyrone Tracy Jr., Devin Singletary, and Daniel Jones). These past three games for Harris have seen him produce 25.2% over expectation, the second-best three-game run of his career (Weeks 11-13, 2022). That sort of form in this matchup lands him inside of my top 20 this weekend.

Rachaad White, RB | TB (vs. SF)

If you thought Rachaad White was a maddening fantasy asset when he was a featured member of this offense, allow me to introduce you to the current version. On Monday night against the Chiefs, he had six opportunities, a second straight week of decline, and a role that isn’t usually of any interest to us.

But … in an offense that is void of playmakers, he somehow keeps paying the fantasy bills (four touchdowns over the past three weeks despite totaling just 33 touches over that stretch). From a process standpoint, fading White makes all the sense in the world. However, I’ve hedged that bet a bit by labeling him as the RB27 because his versatility will be valued in this spot, as I’m not sure any other Buccaneer will have success.

For the season, opponents have completed 37 of 43 passes (86%) thrown to running backs against the 49ers, giving White the path to pay off a limited role once again. By no means is he a must-start in this difficult matchup, but I’d play him over the dart-throw range of receivers (the Rome Odunze-Jordan Addison tier).

Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (at LAR)

Raheem Mostert was handed the ball for five of Miami’s first eight rushing attempts last week against the Bills, but he ended the week with an underwhelming 23.3% snap share, less than half of his rate from the week before against the Cardinals.

If you want to chase a touchdown in a given week, Mostert isn’t a bad bet, but counting on him every week comes with more risk than reward as long as De’Von Achane is healthy. Tua Tagovailoa’s return has benefited Tyreek Hill and Achane at a high level, leaving only scraps for Mostert and Jaylen Waddle.

The veteran back should remain rostered due to the offense’s potency and his proven ability to succeed in scoring situations, but he’s not the type of player you’re starting consistently but rather when your roster puts you in a tough spot and you have no volume-based plays at your disposal.

Ray Davis, RB | BUF (at IND)

Ray Davis took a 63-yard pass to the house last week, and he continues to impress with his decisive running style. He’s a poor man’s Isiah Pacheco in terms of running hard, and that’s an easy skill set to buy into, but James Cook is pretty clearly the man in Buffalo. That gives Davis more value to Buffalo’s offense as a whole than fantasy rosters.

In Week 9, Davis’ snap share was down to 13.6% (21.7% in Week 8 against the Seahawks), further closing out any hope of him positioning himself for stand-alone value down the stretch of his rookie season.

Do you know what Davis is? He’s a young Raheem Mostert but with a mobile QB.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE (at CHI)

Rhamondre Stevenson touched the ball on three of New England’s first four plays in the loss to the Titans last week, proof positive that this team, while wanting to develop Drake Maye in a meaningful way, still wants to keep defenses honest with their lead back.

Stevenson has scored four times over the past two weeks despite none of his 30 carries gaining more than seven yards over that stretch — he’s boring, but he’s a volume back in an offense that has been trending up since the rookie took over.

It’s rarely pretty, but a profile that includes five RB1 finishes deserves to be starting for you in all formats, even against the third-best red-zone defense in the league. I doubt Stevenson is the reason you win your matchup in Week 10, but if he’s not the reason you lose it, that’ll work as you bank on the rest of your roster to do the heavy lifting.

Rico Dowdle, RB | DAL (vs. PHI)

It’s pretty clear that the Ezekiel Elliott thing has run its course, and Rico Dowdle is the beneficiary (Week 9: 71.6% snap share, his first time over 51% this season). His touchdown catch last week looked less like an elite athlete and more like a baby deer, learning how to walk on a frozen pond while trying to juggle, but all points count the same, right?

Dowdle has seen at least five targets in four different games this season; with his carry count no longer much of an obstacle, he deserves to be locked in as a Flex play at worst, even against the NFL’s sixth-best red-zone defense (45.8% touchdown rate).

Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (at DAL)

Could the Eagles have the best quarterback and running back in fantasy this season? The duo connected on a perfectly executed fade on Philadelphia’s second drive last week for a 20-yard score and, of course, you’ve seen the backward Saquon Barkley hurdle that defies logic and potentially gravity.

He has reached 110 yards from scrimmage in seven of eight games, and twice this season has had a 20+ yard rush AND reception. If you need more ammo for the pro-Barkley angle, let me present to you his last four games against the NFC East:

• 25 PPR points per game
• 1.2 PPR points per touch
• 41.2% production over expectation

Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (vs. MIN)

Do you want some bar trivia? Ask someone to name the four running backs this season with as many or more 10+ yard runs as runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Any guesses? No?

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Jonathan Taylor
• Derrick Henry
• Tank Bigsby

No big deal, just three of the best running backs in the game and Bigsby. By no means am I putting the second-year Jaguar in that tier, but it is good to remember a note like that after a brutal Week 9 (eight carries for 22 yards).

The Jaguars might not beat the Vikings this week, but them holding the ball for more than the 21:48 they did last week against the Eagles is likely; that is why I’m OK with considering Bigsby a low-end RB2 in all formats this weekend.

Travis Etienne Jr. got Jacksonville’s first carry last week, but when all was said and done, Bigsby was on the field for over 54% of the offensive snaps for a third straight game.

Taylor was unable to break the seal of this Minnesota run defense last week, and that resulted in him underachieving. Bigsby suffers a similar fate, though I’m more inclined to trust the process with the thought being that attacking an overly aggressive defense with creative run designs can be profitable.

I suspect that Bigsby won’t be popular in DFS tournaments — I’ll be overweight as I think it’s a strong profile to consider when it comes to his ability to gain ground against the field.

Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (at LAC)

Tony Pollard entered Week 9 with a questionable tag due to a foot injury, but he not only played but logged his third straight game with a snap share north of 80%. He didn’t show any ill effects (a 32-yard run on the first drive, his second-longest gain of the season), and while his touchdown was pulled off the board due to a holding penalty, he showed the ability to stop on a dime and accelerate.

The Titans are a tough watch, but Tony Pollard’s role is nothing short of elite — he has multiple catches in every game and at least 16 carries in seven of eight. The Chargers boast a top-10 run defense across the board, but efficiency isn’t why you’re plugging in Pollard as your RB2. If Tennessee can keep this game close, another 18-20 touch effort is likely and that’s enough to feel good about playing Tennessee’s lead back.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX (vs. MIN)

Travis Eitienne Jr. entered 2024 as a running back with breakout potential — safe to say that hasn’t come to fruition. He hasn’t been on the field for 40% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps since September, and why would we expect that to change as he continues to battle through a hamstring injury?

Let’s not get out of control, Etienne is still roster-worthy. He got the first carry of the game last week, and part of his underwhelming touch count was the result of Jacksonville’s offense being on the field for just 51 plays (Philadelphia: 73 plays). Tank Bigsby isn’t exactly a proven entity, and that makes this a fluid situation, even if you don’t have a clear path to considering Etienne at this moment in time.

Trey Benson, RB | ARI (vs. NYJ)

Dynasty managers had to like what they saw from Trey Benson last week against the Bears, and he’s a sharp add in deeper leagues given the checkered health history of James Conner. We know that the veteran back has struggled to make it through an entire season for his career, so while there are no signs of an injury at the moment, getting ahead of things is wise.

Benson was on the field for 26.3% of snaps last week, his most since Week 2. This team is going to be competitive down the stretch, and that means they are going to continue to lean heavily on Conner (18+ carries with multiple catches in three straight games). Benson isn’t going to hold stand-alone value, but in terms of starting RBs whose health I’d be most likely to bet against, Conner is near the top of that list.

Not all waiver wire additions are designed to help you today. The goal is to build a superteam for the end of December, and Benson fits that mold.

Trey Sermon, RB | IND (vs. BUF)

There are roughly half a dozen running back handcuffs that offer no stand-alone value and are worthy of keeping stashed for the remainder of the season.

Trey Sermon is not on that list.

Not only has he struggled when given the rock (47 carries and 10 catches this season and yet he’s still in search of his first 20-yard gain), but the team has shown zero hesitation in going back to Jonathan Taylor in a true bellcow role.

Tyler Goodson was better than Sermon during Taylor’s absence, making this a mess of a situation even if an injury were to occur. Are you really stashing a running back who might work into a committee for an underwhelming offense?

I’m not. Life’s too short to burn a roster spot on that type. I’d rather add Khalil Herbert post-trade or gamble on Kimani Vidal in Los Angeles.

Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (at LAC)

Entering this season, with Derrick Henry taking his talents to Baltimore, there was hope that Tyjae Spears, a third-round pick in 2023 who was on the field for the majority of Tennessee’s offensive plays last season, would see his role expand to that of a weekly fantasy asset.

To say that hasn’t happened would be an understatement. Spears has failed to touch the ball more than eight times in four of his five games and is dealing with a hamstring injury that has held him out of three straight games. The team elected to test his health in the middle of last week before holding him out following the session, an indicator that this soft-tissue issue is lingering.

With Tony Pollard operating at full strength as well, I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to hold onto Spears and hope for a role increase when deemed healthy, but by no means is that something you have to do. Over the next three weeks, 44% of the league has their byes, meaning fantasy managers are going to need to feel good about their depth. It’s hard to feel that way about Spears with this hamstring injury lingering and a limited role in the first place.

Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (at NO)

Tyler Allgeier saw his snap share dip to 23.2% last week, down from the 36.7% rate in Week 8 against the Buccaneers. On the bright side, this is a divisional matchup, and the Falcons have been much more willing to give their RB2 more run in such spots — over 34% of snaps in every divisional game this season (under 24% in every other game).

That’s a nice note for hopeful Best Ball managers or people max entering DFS contests (41.2% of the snaps is Allgeier’s highwater mark for the season, which was in Week 4 against these Saints). However, season-long, we know what Allgeier is — an elite handcuff that is only on your roster as a bet against Bijan Robinson’s health.

Allgeier has one top 30 on his résumé this season, and I’d be surprised if he adds to that total this week.

Tyler Goodson, RB | IND (vs. BUF)

Not all elite running backs need to be handcuffed, and Jonathan Taylor is as good an example of that as anyone. Not only are we unsure as to who would lead the backfield in opportunities if JT were to go down again (my money would be on Tyler Goodson over Trey Sermon, but a debate could certainly be had), but there is no hope for stand-alone value without an injury.

Week 9 snap shares:

• Taylor: 71.4%
• Sermon: 26.5%
• Goodson: 2%

Goodson is averaging 4.7 yards per carry with one score on 35 touches. He was fine given the opportunity, but “fine” isn’t cutting it this time of year, not with RB1 at full strength. You can feel good about moving on and freeing up a roster spot.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (vs. CAR)

Tyrone Tracy Jr. cleared concussion protocol last week, and the Giants didn’t hesitate to give him roughly a 2.5-to-1 touch edge over preseason starter Singletary.

The fantasy box score wasn’t what we had hoped for against the Commanders (7.9 PPR points), but Tracy solidified himself as the RB1 in town, and I’m encouraged by what I’ve seen from him as a runner.

Over the past two weeks, Tracy has 50% more carries that have gained 10+ yards as attempts that have failed to gain any yardage, a great sign as we look ahead for a player with an above-average profile in terms of versatility.

Without game script being a major concern, Tracy is a good bet for 14-17 carries and multiple targets in a great spot. He’s a top-20 running back for me across all formats.

Week 10 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen, WR | CAR (vs. NYG)

Adam Thielen hasn’t played since Week 3 (hamstring) and didn’t clear 50 receiving yards in any of the games he was active for. While Diontae Johnson is now a Raven, the Panthers are pretty clearly more concerned with the future than the present, making me think that this Bryce Young-Xavier Legette-Jalen Coker-Ja’Tavion Sanders quartet is here to stay as the core.

Is that gross? Of course, it is, but Carolina has zero motivation to rush Thielen back or to load him up with opportunities once he returns.

If you’ve been holding the veteran on your IR slot and want to see him fail before cutting ties, fine, there’s no real roster risk in doing that. However, I think it’s unlikely that you’re rostering Thielen down the stretch as you chase a title.

A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (at DAL)

A.J. Brown is producing at the highest rate over expectation of his career (+54.8%), which means only this nagging injury can slow him. Early reports suggest that we are not looking at anything serious and that Brown being active for this divisional matchup is very possible.

If Brown plays, you play him. Easy game.

He saw 22 targets against Dallas last season (16 catches for 160 yards and a touchdown), and I’m happy to pencil him in for upwards of a 30% target share again so long as he can go through the week without any sort of setback.

The Cowboys own the worst red-zone defense this season (76.9% of opponent red-zone trips result in scores, the only defense allowing a conversion rate in the 70s), giving me some confidence that Brown can return top-20 production this week even if his reps are limited.

Alec Pierce, WR | IND (vs. BUF)

We remember Alec Pierce and Flacco connecting on a 65-yard score in Week 5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars — move on.

That highlight was fun, but in his last two games with Flacco under center, Pierce has turned 56 routes into 41 unexciting yards. Pierce hasn’t proven to be a strong target earner in his career up to this point, and the veteran QB is far less likely to access his 15.6 career aDOT for those splash plays that Anthony Richardson explored regularly.

The Bills’ stingy perimeter defense is a brutal matchup, so you’re not playing Pierce this week, and I expect that to be the case moving forward.

In a league that is trending toward conservative play-calling, Pierce’s profile is a tough sell. There are better options on your waiver wire right now, and I encourage you to get creative.

Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (at IND)

Amari Cooper has had his fair share of injuries over the past few seasons (two missed games in 2023 and 11 last season), and a wrist injury kept him from taking the field last week against the Dolphins in what was expected to be his third game with the Bills.

It’s been a bit of an uneven start to Cooper’s career with Buffalo, but he’s left enough breadcrumbs for me to feel good about him as a PPR WR2 this weekend, assuming he clears all health hurdles. Cooper only played one-third of the snaps in Week 7 against the Titans (41.7% on-field target share), and while he only earned a pair of looks in Week 8’s win in Seattle, his snap share rose to 50.7%.

If the wrist injury isn’t more serious than being let on, expecting him to be on the field for three-quarters of Buffalo’s snaps isn’t unreasonable. Against a defense that struggles to create pressure, thus allowing opposing pass games to be efficient, this should be Cooper’s best game as a member of the Bills.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (at HOU)

I can’t imagine I’m alone in considering Amon-Ra St. Brown as a Tier 1 fantasy asset and a true threat to top the position in terms of way-too-early 2025 rankings. St. Brown has scored in six straight regular-season games, something that the great Calvin Johnson never accomplished for this franchise.

Let St. Brown serve as a teaching point. The man is on the short list for the best fantasy receivers in the sport, and he only has one finish inside of the top 10 WRs this season. Of course, he has five top-15 performances, and that’s the lesson — being an elite fantasy option (at any position) doesn’t require the highest ceiling on the board.

St. Brown is as reliable a player as there is in the NFL right now, which is why the team with him in your league is sitting pretty through nine weeks.

Andrei Iosivas, WR | CIN (at BAL)

Let me make this easy on you — Andrei Iosivas’ status, much like Mike Gesicki, is essentially tied to the health of Tee Higgins. This season, he is averaging 22.5% more PPR points per target when Cincinnati’s WR2 is off the field. That is the difference between a Flex grade and one that I have no interest in.

I don’t trust Iosivas as a target earner with or without Higgins active, and that is why I have him on my bench until proven otherwise. When comparing his role without Higgins to that when the star receiver is on the sideline, his slot usage spikes from 22.5% to 55%, and the percentage of his looks that come in the end zone vaults from 13% to 21.2%.

With only a pair of top-40 performances on his 2024 résumé, there is more risk than reward in a player like this. That said, this is a matchup you want to exploit when possible. If Higgins is out, we get that opportunity.

Ravens vs. the slot, 2024:

• 22nd in touchdown rate
• 23rd in attempts per game
• 23rd in yards per completion
• 26th in yards per pass

Brian Thomas Jr., WR | JAX (vs. MIN)

Brian Thomas Jr. entered Week 9 as a game-time decision (chest), and while he assumed his normal role (90.2% snap share), he made little impact in the loss to the Eagles and even less in your fantasy box score (two catches for 22 yards). I’m willing to give him a health pass here, though the floor is concerning if you’re planning on trying to ride this rookie to a title (three finishes outside of the top 40 receivers).

Thomas has seen an end-zone target in four straight games, no small accomplishment in a below-average offense. Only three times has a first-round rookie seen an end-zone look in five straight games (Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba), a list Thomas could join this week if Trevor Lawrence looks his way in a jump ball situation with the Vikings bringing an exotic blitz.

Through nine weeks, it is clear that Thomas is the second-most-valuable rookie receiver in our game. While that lands him as a starter in most formats, he still is a first-year player, and this offense is still inconsistent (he’s Malik Nabers with less volume).

Bub Means, WR | NO (vs. ATL)

Bub Means cleared 15 PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 6 and was a speculative add for many managers looking for depth at a position that has been ravaged by injuries. The idea made sense — a fifth-round rookie with a reasonable size profile who entered the league average of 17.2 yards per catch as a collegiate athlete.

Injuries giveth, injuries taketh away. Rashid Shaheed’s injury opened up playing time for Means, and now an ankle ailment has him on injured reserve for at least the next four weeks (three games). Chris Olave’s concussion issues open up an opportunity for pass catchers in this offense, especially with Derek Carr healthy. But Means isn’t the type of player you need to burn a roster spot (or even an IR spot) on as he recovers from this injury in what is a lost season for New Orleans.

Calvin Ridley, WR | TEN (at LAC)

If I had a million dollars for every time I heard “All we need for Calvin Ridley to justify being started is for Mason Rudolph to start,” my life would be no different.

Over the past two weeks, Ridley has been targeted on 31.1% of his routes, a drastic improvement from the 20.1% rate he posted in Weeks 1-7. I don’t think the recent production is here to stay, and this matchup is as good of a place as any for Ridley’s production to fall back into the abyss.

This season, the Chargers have faced the second-fewest deep passes and own the second-highest deep interception rate. I’m comfortable in betting against this passing game, which is why I have receivers like Jauan Jennings and Keon Coleman ranked higher this week.

I value the insolation they get from their respective offenses as more valuable than Ridley’s physical tools.

CeeDee Lamb, WR | DAL (vs. PHI)

There are plenty of moving pieces in Dallas these days, but CeeDee Lamb should be relatively immune. That’s not to say that Cooper Rush doesn’t lower the projectable ceiling of maybe the best receiver in the sport, but there’s no real action to make — you’re playing him.

All Lamb did was turn 26 targets into 17 catches, 262 yards, and a touchdown against these Eagles last season. He’s seen double-digit targets in each of his past four games against the divisional rival, a game plan that I suspect to be in place this weekend, even with a different triggerman.

Are we going to get Lamb at a significant ownership discount in the DFS streets?

Chris Olave, WR | NO (vs. ATL)

Chris Olave suffered a scary head injury last week; whenever we are getting updates that are worded as “up and active” as opposed to “aiming to play next week,” I consider an extended absence more likely than an immediate return for a team that is going nowhere.

Olave and Rashid Shaheed saw 58.3% of Derek Carr’s targets during the Week 4 loss in Atlanta (71.1% of their receiving yards), making this a difficult game to project and one that doesn’t look too good for the home team. I’m holding onto him in redraft formats for now and hoping for the best, but understand that it’s possible he won’t impact your lineup for the remainder of 2024.

Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (vs. MIA)

We are creatures of comfort. We like peanut butter and jelly sandwiches because it brings us back to a simpler time in childhood. We like the holiday season because, for most, it inspires memories of cherished times.

We like starting Cooper Kupp and Christian McCaffrey for the same reasons — and we finally get the opportunity to do so with confidence this week.

Kupp has a 33.8% target share in his two games back from injury, and with the Dolphins ranked 30th in sack rate this season, I have no reason to bet against this Stafford/Kupp tandem.

Kupp is a WR1 for me this week.

Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN (at KC)

The development of a rookie quarterback can serve as a rising tide. Courtland Sutton has posted two of the top 10 yards-per-route marks of his career over the past two weeks. The two-yard touchdown pass from Sutton to Bo Nix was a fun highlight and helped fantasy managers, but the receiving numbers are what have me excited.

Sutton was WR31 or better five times from Weeks 3-9, and that’s what I’m setting as the floor for my positional ranking of him. This is a tough matchup, which is why I have him penciled in as a middling Flex option — but I do like the direction of this profile.

Of note, the Broncos get the Bengals in Week 17. Could Sutton peak at the perfect time?

Darius Slayton, WR | NYG (at CAR)

Handcuff receivers are rare, and while Darius Slayton (14.7 yards per catch this season) makes the occasional play when Malik Nabers is on the field, for me, he’s nothing more than an injury replacement.

Through nine weeks, Slayton’s only games this season with more than five targets came in the two Nabers DNPs. I find it unlikely that changes at any point in 2024, which means I’m not relying on Slayton passing through concussion protocol this week — I’m not Flexing him regardless, even in a good matchup.

Darnell Mooney, WR | ATL (at NO)

Darnell Mooney, entering this season, averaged 735 receiving yards per 17 games, with a career-high four touchdown receptions in a season. Through nine weeks in 2024, he has 588 receiving yards and has caught five touchdowns.

Last week against the Cowboys, Mooney hauled in a 22-yard pass in the first quarter and found the end zone from 36 yards out due to a reckless blitz from Dallas. He’s on his way to a career season, and I don’t think it slows against the sixth-worst slot defense through nine weeks.

Mooney in the slot from Kirk Cousins, 2024:

• 18 catches
• 23 targets
• 214 yards
• 3 touchdowns
• 45.5% production over expectation

Mooney is putting together a strong year, with the Falcons ranking 22nd in pass rate over expectation. What if that rate trends toward the league average? Or better? Atlanta’s WR2 is a WR2 in most fantasy leagues — at the very least Mooney is a strong Flex play that you can trust.

Davante Adams, WR | NYJ (at ARI)

Rodgers missed him on a double move to start last week, and as the camera panned to see a baffled quarterback, fantasy managers everywhere got the “here we go again” vibes less than 15 seconds into Week 9.

But what’s this? A connection is allowed to improve with time?

This duo connected on a similar play with under three minutes left to ice the game (37-yard score), and Davante Adams finished with a strong 7-91-1 stat line with a 34.4% target share. Growth isn’t linear, but Adams’ production relative to expectations has consistently spiked in New York (59.5% below expectations in Week 7, 10.7% below in Week 8, and 25.4% over on Thursday night).

I don’t think we are going to get vintage Adams from his peak with the Packers, but a locked-in top-15 receiver is plenty reasonable. Keep reading and you’ll get to my Garrett Wilson analysis – Spoiler Alert: if Rodgers regresses from what we saw in the second half last week, I don’t think it comes at Adams’ expense.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (vs. DEN)

Well, Monday night will serve as a moment in time that we come back to if the Chiefs go on to complete their three-peat. Patrick Mahomes said pregame that he wanted to let DeAndre Hopkins do what DeAndre Hopkins does, and he lived up to those words.

After peppering the veteran with looks early in the game, the valuable targets began to come. Down the middle in triple coverage? Check. Designed plays inside the 10-yard line? Check.

Mahomes’ 5.9-yard aDOT is the continuation of a downward trend in terms of his downfield aggression. If that continues, weeks like last for Hopkins (8-86-2) aren’t going to be the norm. But if the future Hall of Famer unlocks a different version of Mahomes, there’s a world in which Nuk is a top-15 producer at the position the rest of the way.

Hopkins is my WR17 this week, and if we get a second straight high-usage role, this will be as low as I have him ranked moving forward.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | SF (at TB)

There are no shortage of moving pieces in San Francisco and while the return of Christian McCaffrey figures to take some food off the plate of Deebo Samuel Sr., he still figures to be involved enough to start in all formats.

In his healthy games this season, Samuel is averaging 7.8 touches per game, a number that I think makes for a reasonable projection with CMC being worked back in and Brandon Aiyuk obviously out of action.

The high-end ceiling is no longer there, but his role in this uber-efficient offense appears to be safe and in the year of receiver injuries, that’s more than enough to garner interest as a WR2 in all formats.

Demarcus Robinson, WR | LAR (vs. MIA)

Regression is a funny word. Math dorks, your humble narrator included, always use it in analysis, but it’s on you when it comes to how you choose to understand it.

Is the player going to regress this week? Over the course of this season? Over the course of his career?

Demarcus Robinson is establishing himself as a spreadsheet breaker, which means I’m going to be wrong about him consistently. Robinson has multiple touchdown catches in consecutive games (the first to do that since Weeks 15-16, 2022), this coming a season after he posted the third-longest TD streak (four straight games) in the NFL.

Is Robinson a historic outlier who excels at finding paydirt? Or is he running as hot as the sun and benefiting from the receiver-elevating prowess of Matthew Stafford?

I think you can guess where I stand, but that 39-yard game-winning touchdown pass doesn’t happen if Stafford doesn’t have the utmost confidence in Robinson. (I’d argue that it also doesn’t happen if Puka Nacua doesn’t get tossed in the second half, but I’ll stop being a stick in the mud.)

You know what you’re chasing if you Flex Robinson and you know that regression math is working against you. If you’re chasing a spike play, I’d rather bet on Joe Burrow by way of Andrei Iosivas or take a chance on a player in a strong offense like Noah Brown with the ability to produce as his team’s WR2.

DeMario Douglas, WR | NE (at CHI)

DeMario Douglas had a pretty 21-yard catch over his shoulder on the first drive last week in the overtime loss to the Titans — his other eight targets totaled 14 yards.

A player like Douglas can hold value, and if Drake Maye truly is the second coming of Josh Allen, the Patriots’ WR might well become his Khalil Shakir with time.

But we aren’t there yet. Not close.

The Bears are the fifth-best defense against receivers this season, and with Maye being more likely to run than force the ball into a tight window, Douglas clawing his way to his fifth top-40 finish of the season is about as high as I can see him finishing this week.

I’d rather roll the dice on a Jalen Coker or Jalen McMillan (presuming health) type than hope for a Wan’Dale Robinson type of line from Douglas.

DeVonta Smith, WR | PHI (at DAL)

The touchdown last week was about as good as it gets: a 25-yard, over-the-shoulder sliding catch that, as the ball was in the air, I got up to go get a drink of water, as I was sure that Jalen Hurts had overshot his target, and that I could maybe it back in time before the next snap.

SMITTY IS NOT OF THIS WORLD 🤯👽@DeVontaSmith_6 | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/PZPAGdLtqh

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 3, 2024

The score was the highlight, but it wouldn’t have happened if DeVonta Smith hadn’t been targeted on a 46-yard Hurts dime earlier in the drive. Smith now has six top-25 performances under his belt this season (the exception hurt: negative two receiving yards) and should be started with confidence, regardless of the matchup.

Last week, three Falcons pass catchers caught multiple passes against Dallas, and all three of them scored. I’ve got both Eagles receivers ranked as top-15 options this week, and I don’t think this will be the last time I enter a week like that.

Diontae Johnson, WR | BAL (vs. CIN)

Don’t you hate when NFL teams make trades to benefit themselves and not us?

I’m not committing to that being the case here just yet, but if you believe reports that Diontae Johnson is being viewed as the WR3 in this run-centric offense, he’ll be on the roster chopping block in short order.

But like I said, I need more than one game to make a call like that. Johnson wasn’t targeted last week in his team debut and was on the field for just 29.6% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps.

A rational human can’t justify Flexing Johnson in any setting this week, even in a great matchup. But the fact that he earned a 27.5% on-field target share with the Panthers indicates that his ability to shake free is still in his profile.

I’m hopeful that we get cheap PPR points out of Johnson with time, but I fear that the net result of this trade is even less consistent among Baltimore’s already sporadic producing pass-catching nucleus.

DJ Moore, WR | CHI (vs. NE)

DJ Moore seemed to leave late with an injury last weekend that deserves monitoring, as this is a receiver who would be tough to start at less than full strength.

• Weeks 1-5: 21.9% on-field target share
• Weeks 6-9: 15.8% on-field target share

We knew the ride with Caleb Williams would be a wild one, and that’s proven out. If we get a clean injury report, Moore will go into the weekend ranked as a fine Flex play for me against the seventh-worst defense per EPA against receivers, but make sure to check back as the weekend approaches.

Drake London, WR | ATL (at NO)

Drake London caught a nine-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter last week against the Cowboys, saving you from a complete disaster — he left the game early with a hip-pointer and finished Week 9 with just two targets.

News coming out of Atlanta paints a rosy picture for their WR1 this week, and that’s encouraging given that London commanded a 35.3% target share when these teams first met in Week 4.

This Saints defense has struggled as much as anyone since that first game, and by trading Marshon Lattimore on Tuesday, things aren’t looking up (Kool-Aid McKinstry is dealing with a hamstring injury as well).

London isn’t Justin Jefferson, but Kirk Cousins is using him in a similar way. That means you lock him into starting lineups the second we get confirmation that he’s good to go.

Garrett Wilson, WR | NYJ (at ARI)

Woah.

Last Thursday night, Garrett Wilson was down-right special (9-90-2). From invoking memories of Odell Beckham Jr. to one of the better QB/WR placement/catch plays that will never be remembered due to the aforementioned highlight, this was the version of the former Buckeye we thought we’d see regularly in 2024.

THROW GARRETT WILSON THE BALL 👏

Any time TD scorer: (+180) ✅

via @nyjets | #JetUppic.twitter.com/oeucAH3nHK

— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) November 1, 2024

Wilson put you on a great path to success in Week 9, but this isn’t a Week 9 article, is it?

On the left is Aaron Rodgers’ pass chart from Halloween; on the right is the first eight weeks of this season. He hit on a few big plays, and that’s great, but we are in the business of predicting what will happen in the future and using trends from the past to do so.

Rodgers, Week 9:

• 15.6% of attempts were deep downfield
• 78.1% quick release rate
• 5.8 average depth of throw

Rodgers, Weeks 1-8:

• 23.4% of attempts were deep downfield
• 70.1% quick release rate
• 7.1 average depth of throw

You remember the home-run shots, but in reality, Week 9’s game plan was as conservative and timing-based as any Rodgers has put on film this season. Why am I listing those stats with Wilson instead of Rodgers, you ask?

Because they scare me.

I’m normally a “glass half full” type, but I’m worried that what we just saw from Wilson is destined to be the exception, not the norm. Those Rodgers metrics, to me, reflect a desire to get the ball out of his hands. I think that’s the right approach, I just don’t think it allows Wilson to thrive on a consistent basis, not based on his current usage patterns anyway.

This season, Wilson’s aDOT is 35.2% higher when Davante Adams is on the field than when he’s not. On the whole, that profile is good for the upside but bad for sustainability.

In Philadelphia, they have an inverse situation, but the teaching point remains. Over the past calendar year, DeVonta Smith’s aDOT is 24% higher when A.J. Brown is off the field than when he is on it. In those deeper target situations, his per-target fantasy production has dipped over 33%.

Thankfully, for Smith managers, Brown doesn’t miss much time, so that split isn’t as worrisome. For Wilson, the Jets are only going to put Adams on the field more with time as they attempt to save this season with a very manageable schedule ahead.

Wilson will have his moments moving forward because he’s a great player, and Rodgers proved last week that there is still gas in the tank. However, I’m very interested in testing the trade markets as deadlines approach — this might well prove to be the peak of his 2024 value.

George Pickens, WR | PIT (at WAS)

It seems to be possible that Russell Wilson is capable of unlocking the raw talent that resides within George Pickens. Pittsburgh’s clear WR1 has a 40+ yard reception in both Wilson starts, and while those splash plays aren’t always going to hit, the willingness to explore downfield shots is encouraging.

The Commanders are the third-worst defense by EPA against receivers this season. While they’ve looked better of late, they still have some holes in their secondary, and if the Steelers are playing from behind, Pickens should clear 11 PPR points for a third straight game.

The addition of Mike Williams could prove to lower Pickens’ ceiling with time, but we’ve seen these recently dealt receivers play under one-third of the snaps in their team debut, making this less of a Week 10 issue.

Jalen Coker, WR | CAR (vs. NYG)

Call me crazy, but the Panthers seem to have a plan. Whether you agree with the names they’ve elevated is a different conversation, but they’ve built up a young offense that comes with potential, and Jalen Coker is a part of it.

The 6’3” rookie didn’t get home last week, but Coker wasn’t far from paying off the hype, as he had an 18-yard catch that came up three yards shy of the goal line. The 4-78-1 stat line in Week 8 against the Broncos was good for a WR17 finish. Although that likely proves to be his best game of the season, Coker deserves to be rostered due to the projected game scripts moving forward and the franchise’s desire to see what they have in this undrafted playmaker.

Coker isn’t a starter for me this week, and the Panthers have a bye next week. Still, I’ll be holding.

The Panthers get the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Buccaneers over the final three weeks of the fantasy season, a stretch run that could prove awfully interesting should Coker carve out a role that sees him earn 5-7 targets consistently.

Jalen McMillan, WR | TB (vs. SF)

A hamstring injury (stop me if you’ve heard that before in football as we know it this season) resulted in Jalen McMillan being a late scratch on Monday night. This is a slightly complicated profile as there are more moving pieces than answers.

How healthy is McMillan? What role can a compromised version of him fill this week? What does his target tree look like once Mike Evans returns?

This is a situation to monitor for deep leagues this week. I was encouraged by the metrics the rookie put forth in Weeks 6-8 (19.3% target rate with a 13.9 aDOT and 29.7% slot usage), numbers that I think have a chance to stick or improve as Evans trends toward full health.

That’s not this week, however. McMillan is likely to be operating at less than full capacity against the fourth-best defense at creating pressure — who also happens to be coming off of a bye.

I’m interested in holding McMillan in deeper formats through the upcoming bye, but in tighter leagues, being out of the Flex conversation for each of the next two weeks makes him a cut candidate.

Jalen Tolbert, WR | DAL (vs. PHI)

The idea of rostering the WR2 in this Dallas offense made plenty of sense entering the season after Brandin Cooks scored eight times a season ago. The execution, however, has been less than ideal.

Through nine weeks, only six times has a Cowboy receiver not named CeeDee Lamb scored 8.5 PPR points this season, a sample that would be on the fringe of usable if it was all one player. But there are three different names on that list, making this a fool’s errand to try to chase.

But wait, it gets better. Dak Prescott has been placed on injured reserve and, on Tuesday, Dallas traded for Jonathan Mingo, a younger version of Jalen Tolbert but with more draft capital and more size.

I’m not suggesting that Mingo wins this WR2 job, but he’s another cook in a kitchen that lost all direction with its head chef sidelined. Outside of Lamb, there isn’t a Dallas receiver that needs to be on your roster.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR | CIN (at BAL)

Ja’Marr Chase has caught at least five passes in five straight games and has seven scores over his past seven games.

The bend-don’t-break mentality of NFL defenses these days is hindering Chase (three straight weeks without a 20-yard reception) to a degree. Yet, with more than 10 targets in three of his past five contests, there is simply no way around labeling Cincinnati’s WR1 as an elite option in this great spot.

Touchdown catches for 41 and 70 yards highlighted Chase’s 41.3-point outing in Week 5 against the Ravens, the highest mark of the week across all positions (10 grabs for 193 yards and those two scores). Tee Higgins’ health impacts almost everyone on Cincinnati’s offense in a significant way — Chase is the exception.

Jameson Williams, WR | DET (at HOU)

I’ll get to it more with Sam LaPorta, but Detroit’s offense has proven to be too efficient for its own good when it comes to our fantasy world. Of course, the Lions couldn’t care less how they score 40 points, which makes their potent offense frustrating.

Williams is set to return from a PED suspension that cost him a pair of games, though he needs to be more than active to earn my trust at this point. In the first two weeks of the season, the explosive playmaker was targeted on 24.7% of his routes, and “2024 breakout star” was written all over him.

Since then, however, that rate has dropped to 10.5%. Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen a pair of Kalif Raymond touchdowns, a game where David Montgomery ranked second on the team in receptions, and a week where Isaiah Williams ranked second in targets (don’t feel bad if you don’t know the name; before then, he had exactly zero looks).

I still like the idea of Jameson Williams and what he brings to an ultra-efficient offense. I fear that his field-stretching might mean more to Detroit’s offense than it does fantasy managers, but we get a chance to put that to the test on Sunday night against a defense that faces the fourth-most deep attempts per game (7.9).

Williams is on the low end of my Flex rankings this week, given the wide range of outcomes. Nevertheless, I would call his number if I felt as if I was an underdog in a specific matchup and could forgo some safety for upside.

Jauan Jennings, WR | SF (at TB)

Jauan Jennings sat out before the Week 9 bye with a hip injury, but all reports coming out of San Francisco suggest that he will be back in the mix and ready to assume the 49ers’ WR2 duties.

The 27-year-old proved capable of earning targets earlier this season when pressed into heavier usage. And while I expect Jennings to be a pretty clear fourth option in San Francisco’s passing attack, there is some meat on the bone here if you think the 49ers trend toward the 28 points that sportsbooks have them projected for.

This season, Jennings has turned 15 perimeter targets into 37 PPR points, blending upside with efficiency in the process. If San Francisco elects to kick Deebo Samuel Sr. into the slot, Jennings could prove to be a valuable asset to this offense and a week decider in fantasy circles.

Through nine weeks, the Bucs are the third-most challenged team out wide (15.0 attempts per game). One reason teams go that route is because they’ve had success (TB vs perimeter: 20th in completion percentage, 24th in interception rate, and 25th in touchdown rate).

There certainly is risk involved here, as the 49ers may not need to stray from their stars in this matchup. Nevertheless, I’m Flexing Jennings in a few spots and feel okay about it.

He’s right on that WR30 borderline for me at the moment, ranking ahead of bigger names like Michael Pittman Jr./Calvin Ridley and ahead of everyone’s favorite matchup play of the week in Jordan Addison.

Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA (at LAR)

I’m not going to say the return of Tua Tagovailoa has been a hindrance on Jaylen Waddle, but it certainly hasn’t helped what is shaping up to be a lost season.

Weeks 3-7 (without Tagovailoa):

• 18.8% target share
• 16.7% red-zone target rate

Weeks 8-9 (with Tagovailoa):

• 13.1% target share
• 11.1% red-zone target rate

We are clearly dealing with tiny samples here, which is what keeps Waddle in the Flex tier. Miami’s offense as a whole is functioning at a higher level, and that rising tide has the ability to, eventually, lift all boats.

The Rams allow the sixth-most yards per play this season, so maybe this is the perfect get-right spot. However, their specific deficiencies line up better for Tyreek Hill (keep reading).

Waddle’s first target in Week 9 didn’t come until the fourth quarter, and due to a funky final play, he ended with negative four receiving yards.

Jaylen Waddle -3.5 fantasy points pic.twitter.com/vEUnRTlP0d

— Chives (@jarrett_daveler) November 3, 2024

I’m preaching patience over panic in this situation, though I think the best-case scenario moving forward might be a boom/bust receiver more than a safe option that you can count on weekly.

Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (at JAX)

Jordan Addison had a strong rookie season, but he’s yet to show much in the way of growth (under 13% on-field target share in three straight games). That has proven prohibitive for him to develop into a consistent option.

Addison has been a viable option three times this season and could, in theory, make it four with a matchup against the most forgiving defense in the league in terms of receiver production. However, I’m operating with caution.

Jalen Nailor scored last week (his fourth of the season), but with T.J. Hockenson working his way back to a full-time role, there’s simply more risk than reward. Holding onto Addison is acceptable for now, though with bye weeks in bulk coming, you may be forced to make a difficult decision — cutting ties should be viewed as an option.

Josh Downs, WR | IND (vs. BUF)

I was (wrongly) optimistic about Michael Pittman Jr. entering this season, but I stand by the thought process. That is why Josh Downs is now occupying the WR2 role in my rankings that his teammate opened the season with.

On-field target share from Joe Flacco, 2024:

• Josh Downs: 36.5%
• Michael Pittman Jr.: 19%
• Alec Pierce: 10.3%

This may feel like a WR committee situation, but the data paints a picture of dominance in the direction of Downs, something I’m very interested in leveraging against the third-worst EPA defense against slot receivers in the NFL this season.

Up to this point, Downs has accounted for 74.2% of Flacco’s slot completions and has produced 15.7% over expectations on those looks. I’m looking for him to be fed early and often this week, resulting in my ranking of him ahead of Deebo Samuel Sr., George Pickens, and other high-profile options at the receiver position.

Joshua Palmer, WR | LAC (vs. TEN)

Joshua Palmer was able to find paydirt from 27 yards out last week courtesy of a busted coverage, a level of production that looked good on your bench/waiver wire. The score was good to see, though I’d caution you about getting too excited.

Palmer’s target-earning metrics are pacing for the lowest of his career (yet to earn more than five targets in a game). With the hierarchy of this offense in flux week-over-week, I don’t think you’re going to get usable weeks on a consistent (or predictable) basis.

Palmer has a catch of at least 24 yards in five straight, and that can put him on your radar in a desperate situation. But this isn’t the type of receiver I want to be counting on if my matchup is expected to be close.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (vs. DEN)

JuJu Smith-Schuster has missed consecutive games with a hamstring injury, and the role that he opened October with (seven catches for 130 yards as the primary slot receiver against the Saints in Week 5) is unlikely to be waiting for him when he returns.

The Broncos’ defense checks in as elite in a handful of metrics. I’m not sure a fully healthy Smith-Schuster has a fantasy-relevant role in this offense, and I’m even less sure that the 27-year-old is anywhere close to a full-go.

If your waiver is bereft of talent, staying with Smith-Schuster for the short term is an acceptable decision, as you want visual proof that he has been written out of this offense. Yet, if you don’t have that luxury, moving on for immediate help is also reasonable.

Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (at JAX)

I made the case for Amon-Ra St. Brown’s consistency placing him atop the WR board for the next 14 months, and Justin Jefferson comes preloaded with similarly consistent production (yet to finish worse than WR21 this season.

The scary part is that there is a clear path to Jefferson’s stock gaining in value. Thus far, the All-Pro is pacing for his best season in terms of production over expectation, remarkable when you consider that his red-zone usage sits at its lowest rate since his rookie campaign.

It must be something about these WR1s in the NFC North — you can’t go wrong!

Keenan Allen, WR | CHI (vs. NE)

Keenan Allen has just one top-40 week on his 2024 résumé and has yet to reach 45 yards in a game with the Bears. He earned 10 targets last week in Arizona, a step in the right direction, and continuing the most positive note you’ll see this week when it comes to the Bears’ passing attack.

Allen’s expected PPR points by week, 2024:

• Week 4 vs. Los Angeles Rams: 5.9
• Week 5 vs. Carolina Panthers: 10.7
• Week 6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 11.2
• Week 8 at Washington Commanders: 11.3
• Week 9 at Arizona Cardinals: 16.4

I have Allen ranked second among Chicago’s receivers this week, and that makes him a low-end Flex option in Germany. But if you’re playing DFS (be it a showdown setting or a contest that lumps this in with the main slate), I can’t imagine that he will garner much interest from those staring at his results.

Allen’s role is worth more than his scoring profile would suggest this season — that makes him a buy-low option to consider.

Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (at IND)

This will be an interesting case study in terms of trust. Josh Allen checked out of a red-zone run last week, opting to throw to Keon Coleman on a slant. The decision was sound — that is until the rookie turned a potential touchdown into a turnover.

“The NFL is a game of inches.”

I hate clichés, but they come about for a reason and some remain true with time. If Coleman secures that pass and scores, with nothing else changing, his weekly finish moves from WR66 to WR24. Coleman’s talent is clear, but so are his inconsistencies.

Amari Cooper hasn’t been on the field enough following his trade to Buffalo to give us a good feel as to how Coleman will be used. There’s certainly risk involved, and that is why I have the rookie ranked third among receivers on this team for the rest of the season.

Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (at IND)

Targets to Khalil Shakir are essentially freebies for Josh Allen. With improved maturity as a passer, that role is more advantageous this season than prior ones. Shakir has reached double figures in PPR points in seven of eight games this year and has been targeted on over 24% of his routes in three consecutive games.

Not all players in your starting lineup need to offer weekly winning upside. Counting on Shakir is something that savvy fantasy managers have elected to do this season, and I think that is the case again in this spot against a defense that allows the second-highest completion percentage on balls thrown less than 10 yards downfield (79.4%).

Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (vs. TEN)

Ladd McConkey came into the NFL with a lot less fanfare than his rookie classmates. While only time will tell how that plays out long-term, it’s difficult to argue that he was as NFL-ready as anyone (six-plus targets earned in seven of eight games this season).

The Bolts called his number on their first play last week (16-yard reception) and, as they open up this offense, I think we are more likely to see an increase in usage for McConkey than any sort of opportunity regression.

Chargers’ one-score pass rates, 2024:

• Weeks 1-5: 53%
• Weeks 6-9: 63.5%

The Titans have produced some strong defensive numbers this season, but they cough up 7.8 slot completions per game (26th). That’s enough to greenlight starting McConkey as a WR2 in PPR leagues.

Malik Nabers, WR | NYG (vs. CAR)

Five times this season has a rookie receiver played 70% of the snaps and been targeted on at least one-third of his routes:

• Malik Nabers (Week 2 at Commanders)
• Malik Nabers (Week 3 at Browns)
• Malik Nabers (Week 4 vs. Cowboys)
• Brian Thomas Jr. (Week 4 at Texans)
• Malik Nabers (Week 9 vs. Commanders)

The Giants regressed the aDOT of their star receiver last week and that upped the efficiency (nine catches on 11 targets). I don’t expect that to stick, but I was encouraged by the team showing the willingness to adjust how Nabers is used.

There’s always a risk that comes with betting on Daniel Jones, but that’s a DFS conversation for another day. You can fire up all the Nabers shares you can handle this week (DFS chalk) against a defense that ranks bottom-five in touchdown pass rate, passer rating, and yards per pass.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | ARI (vs. NYJ)

Marvin Harrison Jr. might prove to be worthy of all the hype we bestowed upon him in April, but for the moment, he’s not producing like a locked-in fantasy option.

Shoot, he’s been on the fringe of roster-worthy since September. From Weeks 5-9, Harrison has one top-50 finish. One. On the long list of receivers with more such finishes over that stretch are Noah Brown, Sterling Shepard, and Van Jefferson. I’m not saying that you’re cutting Harrison. I’m not even saying that, in all spots, you’re benching him, but you need to be considering looking past your priors.

The Jets are a top-five pass defense in terms of touchdown rate and passer rating, making this a tough spot for a struggling player. I have three rookie receivers ranked ahead of Harrison this week as he slides in as a fringe top-30 receiver, sitting behind Khalil Shakir’s elevated weekly floor.

Mason Tipton, WR | NO (vs. ATL)

Can the Yale product weasel his way into the Flex conversation with time? It’s possible, and that makes him worthy of rostering, even if you’re not truly considering playing him in the short term.

With Bub Means on injured reserve (ankle), Rashid Shaheed out for the season, and Chris Olave battling head injuries, there are targets to be earned in this offense. The health of Derek Carr certainly helps for a player who has been on the field for over 75% of the snaps in three straight games.

Tipton scored 10 times on 53 catches during his senior season, giving me some hope that he can show off a nose for the end zone when given the opportunity. At the minimum, there is the potential for a Wan’Dale Robinson-like role (81.3% catch rate on balls thrown less than 10 yards downfield this season, 11.1% on other targets). That has Flex appeal in the right spot.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND (vs. BUF)

With just two catches on 10 targets over the past two weeks, Michael Pittman Jr. has successfully worked his way out of my weekly top 30 — and I’m late to the party. Heck, I might be the last one to the party at this point.

I was hopeful that the return to Joe Flacco on a full-time basis would help, and it still might, but we have to see him prove it first as Josh Downs has established himself as the top receiver in Indy. Pittman has been targeted on under 20% of his routes in five straight games (2023: targeted on 27.7% of routes), a role that, without much in the way of per-target upside, isn’t going to get it done.

I’m not turning off the lights on MPJ altogether, but he has to sit down and think about what he has done to fantasy rosters through two months.

Michael Wilson, WR | ARI (vs. NYJ)

I’m man enough to admit when I was wrong, and man was this a swing and a miss on my part. Like most, I was intrigued by the upside of Arizona’s offense and how a tall/athletic secondary receiver would fit into the mix.

As it turns out, Michael Wilson doesn’t fit. Not in a meaningful way for us anyway.

Wilson has been on the field for 78.2% of Arizona’s snaps this season, and yet, he doesn’t have a 15-point game on the ledger for 2024. There was a glimmer of hope in Week 5 against the 49ers (five catches on six targets for 78 yards), but it’s been a dumpster fire since — 67 receiving yards and exactly zero of them coming last week on only a single target.

I’ll admit that I was wrong for 2024, though I’m not selling my dynasty stocks (in part because they are worth very little right now). The Cardinals have dialed back his aDOT by 23.4% this season, and that clearly hasn’t worked.

There’s a path in which Arizona puts Wilson in a position to be a fantasy asset with time — that time just isn’t 2024.

Mike Evans, WR | TB (vs. SF)

Until I hear otherwise, I’m operating under the assumption that Mike Evans’ serious hamstring injury will keep him sidelined through the Week 11 bye.

• Week 12 at New York Giants
• Week 13 at Carolina Panthers
• Week 14 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
• Week 15 at Los Angeles Chargers
• Week 16 at Dallas Cowboys
• Week 17 vs. Carolina Panthers

The injury is obviously annoying and could result in your fantasy team struggling to make the playoffs. However, if you can tread water during Evans’ absence, it would appear clear that you’ll be positioned to make a run.

We saw Tampa Bay move heaven and earth last season to get Evans to 1,000 yards for the 10th consecutive season. If such a push happens this season (665 yards to go with, at most, seven games left on his 2024 ledger), you’re going to be thrilled to have him on your roster.

If you have a winning team and the Evans manager is fighting for his/her life, you’d be wise to leverage that in the form of a trade offer.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR | TEN (at LAC)

Touchdowns aren’t sticky for most. That’s the case even less often when the team rarely scores. But every once in a while, we get a player like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine — a spreadsheet-breaking, logic-defying outlier.

Fun stuff.

Westbrook-Ikhine has now scored in four straight games — an undrafted player has had a longer streak before turning 28 years old only four times since 2016 (Robert Tonyan, Tyrell Williams, Robbie Chosen, and Allen Lazard). That’s an ultra-cherry-picked list, but it’s impressive nonetheless.

In those four games, the Titans have mustered just 33 points on non-NWI touchdowns. To call this profile thin would be undershooting it; Westbrook-Ikhine has seen just 16 targets over this stretch.

I said it last week and was wrong, but I’m doubling down. You’re chasing production if you’re locking in Westbrook-Ikhine, and I think it burns you sooner rather than later.

Nico Collins, WR | HOU (vs. DET)

It’s not crazy to call Nico Collins a top-10 receiver in the NFL, right? He has 154 targets since the beginning of last season as he continues to develop, a level of volume that could easily be achieved within a single healthy season if you consider him among the game’s best (nine receivers cleared that number in 2023 alone). On those 154 targets …

• 112 catches
• 1,864 yards
• 11 touchdowns

Those are similar raw numbers and superior rate numbers to what CeeDee Lamb did last season. You’ll want to monitor the status of Collins’ hamstring (I’ll update this piece daily, so just bookmark this and check back as part of your nightly routine), but barring setbacks, he’ll be locked into the many lineups in which I have access to this star.

Hear me out

Top Row: Stroud's season numbers
Row 2: With Collins on the field
Row 3: Without Collins on the field

What if HOU finishes 13-4 (7-1 ROS)?
"Moment" games remain with DET, KC, BAL

His value has been proven over the last month. What if he shows out? pic.twitter.com/sIoEqh3HuM

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) November 1, 2024

Noah Brown, WR | WAS (vs. PIT)

Noah Brown’s name is on the radar for some because of the Hail Mary catch, but you’re chasing a ghost if you’re trying to nail down who is the WR2 in this offense.

The WR2 role is an interesting one and will serve as a research project during the offseason (what allows Darnell Mooney to thrive in Atlanta but not offenses like Washington and Dallas?), but in the short term, it’s clear that we can’t count on any receiver not named Terry McLaurin for the Commanders.

Remove that tip-drill Hail Mary and Brown is averaging 6.8 PPR points per game. Not only is that an unappealing number, but even if that number is enough to catch your interest due to the trajectory of this offense, there are three players in that range that I much prefer this week and moving forward (Jalen Coker, Dontayvion Wicks, and Andrei Iosivas).

Brown was on the field for just 50% of Washington’s snaps last week in New York (his lowest since Week 2), and that regresses the projectable range of outcomes to such a level that he need not be rostered in standard-sized leagues.

Parker Washington, WR | JAX (vs. MIN)

Parker Washington earned a 20% target share and racked up 103 air yards last week as he seems to be the Jaguar in a position to benefit most from Christian Kirk’s season coming to an end in Week 8.

Does that mean he’s a must-add? I wouldn’t go that far, but this is the type of player I make a habit of stashing this time of year with the hope that he pays dividends when it matters most. Jacksonville is an underdog or favored by fewer than two points in seven of their final eight games, a script that makes this waiver wire add an interesting option coming down the stretch.

Trevor Lawrence clearly hasn’t developed the way we’ve all hoped, though he is still capable of putting together 60 good minutes here and there, something that makes a player like Washington appealing if you’re stuck.

The Jaguars play in Las Vegas on Dec. 22 (Week 16) — that matchup alone makes him a worthwhile addition to see where this goes.

Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (vs. MIA)

This knee injury seems to be a pain tolerance issue, and nothing we’ve seen since his return to action (13 targets on 40 routes run) suggests that Puka Nacua can’t produce top-20 numbers moving forward.

Of course, if he’s getting tied up with defensive backs and getting ejected consistently, the math changes. Nacua killed you last week due to the early departure, but that’s nothing to take with you into Week 10. No suspension or anything is coming, which means that I’m entering this week with the same level of confidence that I had in Nacua a week ago, and that’s not far off from my preseason take.

This season, in his limited reps, Nacua’s on-field target share is higher this season (30.4%) than last (27.6%), a note that is more impressive when you consider a 20.2% rise in aDOT. This is an ultra-condensed offense, and you’re getting one of the three valuable pieces — enjoy the ride!

Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (vs. TEN)

After missing two games with an ankle injury, Quentin Johnston posted a 4-118-1 stat line in Cleveland and rewarded you for the bold decision to plug him in right away.

Now, let’s pump the breaks a little bit here. In the win, 61.8% of Johnston’s points came on a single play that featured a broken coverage at the highest order, numbers that count in the Week 9 box score, but not ones that tell us much of a story when it comes to protecting future output.

On the bright side, Justin Herbert seems to have gained Jim Harbaugh’s trust and is being unleashed. On the less bright side, Herbert seems to have gained the trust of Harbaugh, as he is being unleashed.

Let me explain. Adding volume to the Chargers’ passing game is a step in the right direction, but Herbert operating at his full potential is going to result in target dispersion patterns like what we saw on Sunday — nine different players were targeted on his 27 passes.

You can be excited about what you saw in your box score from Johnston, but let’s not forget that after showing flashes in September this is the same player that totaled 31 yards in two games prior to the ankle injury.

The Titans own the best EPA defense against receivers this season, and that has me trending away from Flexing Johnston this week. I’m likely to be lower on him than most moving forward because I have Ladd McConkey labeled as the premier target earner in LA’s low-volume offense, with the other options being weekly coin flips.

Wan’Dale Robinson is boring, and Jalen Coker plays for the inept Panthers — I have both ranked higher this weekend.

Rashod Bateman, WR | BAL (vs. CIN)

Rashod Bateman caught Lamar Jackson’s first pass of the game last week. The reception didn’t move the needle for me — it was the fact that he was playing ahead of the newly acquired Diontae Johnson that had my interest (90% first-quarter snap share while the game was close and the pre-game script was being executed).

Is that here to stay?

There were rumors that this could be the case, but I’m not ready to assume it as fact. More importantly, I’m not sure that it matters even if it is how this receiver depth chart shakes out.

Bateman has never earned 70 targets in a season, and I don’t love his odds of breaking that trend this season. If you have free roster space, you could do worse than holding a big-play receiver tethered to one of the two best offenses in the NFL. Bateman is a luxury stash for winning fantasy teams, but one that I’d rather not invest in if I’m doing everything I can to make a push to qualify for the postseason.

Ray-Ray McCloud III, WR | ATL (at NO)

The injury to Drake London is why Ray-Ray McLoud III is on fantasy radars this week, but it’s important to remember that the receiver position is nothing like the running back position. What Jordan Mason has done in San Francisco this season is great, though it’s not all that rare. Every season, we see backup running backs do a pretty good impersonation of the player he is replacing.

It’s rare to see that among pass catchers — it’s a numbers game. Generally speaking, one running back is featured, but three receivers can be a part of the weekly game plan. That means that the receiver who gets on the field as a result of an injury is, at best, the fourth-best option on the roster, whereas the backup running back is second-best.

That’s an overly complicated way of saying that the London injury doesn’t mean that any one receiver on this team sees a massive spike in their role. McCloud hasn’t been worth your while this season despite playing over 82% of the snaps in eight straight games, and I don’t expect that to change.

If I’m blindly betting on a quarterback/offense to add value to a profile, sign me up for Rashod Bateman or Noah Brown instead.

Rome Odunze, WR | CHI (vs. NE)

I understand that seeing a reasonable point total sitting on your bench is irritating, but it’s important to remember a very simple fact: those are lost points.

Starting Rome Odunze this week doesn’t make up for what you missed out on in Week 9. In fact, you risk making a second mistake instead of acting rationally.

Odunze’s season recap:

• Two games with 100+ yards
• Six games with under 45 yards
• Three games overachieving expectations
• Five games underachieving expectations

The rookie has played at least three-quarters of the snaps in every game this season, and I love what that means for his long-term growth. However, as you can see, you don’t simply get points for being on the field. Odunze has reached triple digits in air yards in consecutive weeks (season: 15.8-yard aDOT), a role that indicates one-off upside more than sustainable value.

Even with four teams on a bye and injuries aplenty, the rookie doesn’t crack my top 35 at the position for Week 10.

Tank Dell, WR | HOU (vs. DET)

Tank Dell’s fantasy production has been stable over the past month (100 yards or a touchdown in three of his past four games) despite plenty of moving pieces around him. He was able to thrive last week against the Jets, turning nine targets into 126 yards while other Texans receivers totaled just 44 yards on their eight looks.

I’m not overly comfortable with Dell filling the WR1 role from a skill-set standpoint, but in this spot, I also don’t like him as the secondary option if we assume Nico Collins returns.

• Cooper Kupp
• Chris Godwin
• Marvin Harrison Jr.
• DK Metcalf
• CeeDee Lamb
• Justin Jefferson
• Calvin Ridley
• Jayden Reed

Those are the names of the top-scoring receivers against the Lions this season — all alpha target earners within the context of their specific situations. I’m not sold on Dell as that, regardless of the role he fills.

I’m avoiding chasing his production from Week 9 if I can. This is a boom-bust profile, but if you need to go that direction, this projected shootout could get you home. Still, there’s a lot of risk to consider, even after a strong performance.

Tee Higgins, WR | CIN (at BAL)

Tee Higgins didn’t practice last week (quad) and needs to be monitored closely, though the Thursday night kickoff is helpful for fantasy managers. With the bye coming (Week 12), I’d lean toward Cincinnati being cautious with the star receiver. Yet, at 4-5, do the Bengals have that luxury (next three games: Ravens, Chargers, and Steelers)?

Higgins matched Ja’Marr Chase’s two scores and saw a game-high 14 targets (nine catches for 83 yards) in the first meeting this season with the Ravens, his second straight, multi-score game against the division rival.

Normally, I’d give you the “if the Bengals start Higgins, you start Higgins” tagline, and while that is how I’m generally approaching this situation with the Ravens ranking as the fourth-worst EPA defense against receivers, I’m nervous that his quad injury could create a low floor.

Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (vs. PIT)

Terry McLaurin scored twice in the first half last week, giving him as many multi-TD games over the past month as he had in his career prior.

There are two receivers to score 15+ PPR points in four straight games this season, both of which are active streaks. The names? Justin Jefferson and Mr. McLaurin.

I’m worried more about the Week 10 value of Washington’s WR1 than the other pieces of this explosive offense. If you remove the Week 4 loss to the Colts, a game in which the Steelers prepared for Richardson but faced Flacco for the majority of the game after an injury, only once has a receiver reached 15 PPR points against Pittsburgh.

Drill down further, and you’ll notice that in the few instances in which this defense has given up production to a receiver, it hasn’t come from the expected source. Josh Downs outscored Michael Pittman Jr., Darius Slayton outscored Malik Nabers, and Jalen Tolbert outscored CeeDee Lamb.

The highs have been high for McLaurin this season, but there have been some lows as well, and I’m worried we could get one of those performances. He’s still a locked-in starter for me this week, but the floor could come into play here, which is why I’m passing in DFS formats.

Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA (at LAR)

I don’t know about you, but it feels very much like the spike Tyreek Hill game is inevitable — and it could come on Monday night. There have been flashes over the past two weeks with Tua Tagovailoa back under center, but Hill’s production has ended almost spot-on with where you’d expect (24.6 expected PPR points vs. 25.2 actual PPR points).

I think that changes this week based on Tagovailoa’s increased comfort, yes, but also this matchup. The Rams are easily the best defense in limiting slot production this season, something that has me projecting a perimeter-oriented Dolphins passing attack in Week 10:

Production with Tua Tagovailoa under center since 2023:

• Hill: 0.4% over expectation from the slot vs. 38.2% over expectation out wide
• Waddle: 4.2% over expectation from the slot vs. 23.7% over expectation out wide

Hill is the unquestioned WR1 in this offense as it is, and given how Los Angeles defends, I’m expecting him to be featured in a significant way. This is the spot you’ve waited three months for.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | NYG (at CAR)

Wan’Dale Robinson is exactly what you think he is, and with receivers dropping like flies, there’s comfort in stability. The Week 9 stat line could have been useful if not for Darius Slayton getting called for a pick penalty on a four-yard Robinson touchdown, but you know you’re getting some self-sabotage potential whenever you bank on a below-average offense like what the Giants roll out there.

There’s a decent chance that Robinson snaps a streak of seven straight games of underachieving based on his target diet this week against a Panthers defense that allows the eighth-most yards per catch after the reception this season.

Xavier Legette, WR | CAR (vs. NYG)

Xavier Legette has now scored in three of his past four games and has a carry in three straight as he works his way toward the Flex radar despite a limited supporting cast.

The rookie very well could have had the best day of his young career if not for a drop in Week 9, but any double-digit point performance is noteworthy in this spot, especially when you consider that his status wasn’t clear prior to the game due to a toe injury.

This offense remains a problem, but the usage is trending in the right direction. Legette has seen his slot participation increase over the past month and, regardless of who is under center, he’s solidified himself as the go-to red-zone option. He still ranks outside of my top 30 at the position, though I could see that changing as the week carries on and I sell myself more on this matchup (NYG: fifth-worst defense in terms of EPA against receivers this season).

His status in starting lineups is a question mark for now, but what isn’t is his status as my favorite “Xavier” rookie receiver moving forward for 2024.

Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (vs. DEN)

The life of trusting a receiver with a limited skill set can be a stressful one. Put that profile on a rookie and you’re asking for headaches.

With increased awareness, Xavier Worthy would have turned a deep target into 10.3 points in the first quarter of Monday Night Football last week and we are off to the races. Instead, he loses track of the boundary and steps out of bounds before completing the catch, let alone extending the extra foot for the touchdown. A single mistake like that doesn’t submarine the value of a grizzled veteran or a player with a more consistent role, but that’s not the case for a player like this.

Worthy saw only one more target the rest of the game and turned two rushes into negative 10 yards as they tried to get creative with how to best get him involved. His route participation ticked up, a good sign for those still holding out hope that he can stumble upon a spike game with defenses flocking toward DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce. But we’ve yet to see him earn targets with any consistency, and that doesn’t project as likely to change with Patrick Mahomes’ aDOT again on a career-low trajectory.

Keep Worthy rostered in the event that you’re desperate for a single big play, but he can’t be near starting lineups in any other situation.

Zay Flowers, WR | BAL (vs. CIN)

I entered the season with the thought that Zay Flowers would be as consistent a producer as the receiver position would offer.

“He’s the clear WR1 in an offense we expect to put points on the board weekly, why can’t he be a discount Amon-Ra St. Brown?”

I may have been wrong, but the highs have been fun! His yardage production this season looks like my wife’s Peloton graph:

I think there’s a WR1 in this profile, and last week was a good example of why. There were instances in which he and Lamar Jackson showed the ability to communicate in a non-verbal way mid-play (scramble drill touchdown). Flowers has the YAC ability that we know is a constant (32 yards after the catch on his 53-yard score) and earns targets at a high level (targeted on a season-best 37.5% of his routes).

Due to the nature of this offense, I don’t think the days of Peloton Zay are behind us, but I will plan on pushing through them, as there is no matchup that I truly fear for a profile like this. You’re playing Flowers weekly and just hoping the “cool down” stretch of this ride doesn’t come at the worst possible time.

Week 10 Fantasy Football Tight Ends

Cade Otton, TE | TB (vs. SF)

Our guy Cardio Cade Otton has been the best thing since sliced bread recently.

That’s not true. Bread is good and everything, but does eating a sandwich really compare with going on a fantasy heater in the middle of the season? Maybe I’m biased, but I’d say no. Over the past three weeks, Otton has been fantasy football’s No. 5 scorer. Not at the tight end position but in the whole league.

1. Jalen Hurts: 87.8 PPR points
2. Lamar Jackson: 82.2
3. Saquon Barkley: 71.7
4. De’Von Achane: 69.3
5. Otton: 68.8

He’s not on that list because of one of those outlier games and a few ordinary ones. He’s one of four pass catchers with at least 15 PPR points in each of those weeks as he consistently has been giving you a massive edge over your competition.

Of course, as fantasy managers, the question is about the future, not the past. I’d love to tell you that we’ve uncovered gold, and when Tampa Bay suffered their receiver injuries and you picked up Otton, you won your league. But I can’t.

He’s been great and will certainly have a greater role, but asking him to continue to account for 27.5% of Baker Mayfield’s completions or own a 41.7% end-zone target share is a lot.

With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:

• 165 routes
• 18 catches
• 156 yards
• 37.6 fantasy points

Without Evans on the field, 2024:

• 147 routes
• 26 catches
• 265 yards
• 70.1 fantasy points

This weekend, Otton draws a defense that is in the top five against the position in both YAC and yards per target. Next week, the Bucs have their bye, and in Week 12, he faces the second-best YAC team against the position that also owns the lowest touchdown rate allowed to tight ends.

Evans is expected back in Week 12, and I’ve already bet on Tampa Bay going under their implied team total this week (21 points) against a rested 49ers defense that is expected to get Christian McCaffrey back, something that should result in long, sustained drives and thus a limited possession count for the Bucs.

Of course, with Chris Godwin’s season over, I don’t expect Otton to fade into the abyss. I think he’s a top-10 tight end the rest of the way, but remember that Tucker Kraft run we had in the first month of the season? This feels like that — a player you start weekly in hopes of returning to the elite form we saw at one point and instead settling for the up-and-down production that this position breeds.

If I had the chance to move Otton for a Ladd McConkey type (consistent producer whose bye week is in the past), I think I would.

Cole Kmet, TE | CHI (vs. NE)

Cole Kmet has been on the field for 79.3% of snaps this season, but those routes have largely been empty (one game with more than five targets this season). Personally, I’m buying Caleb Williams stock while it’s low, and that means some levels of optimism around Kmet by association. I’m having a hard time seeing him being a consistent producer the rest of the way.

New England is an above-average defense in terms of YAC and passing touchdown rate — it’s not a prohibitive matchup, but I need “favorable” for me to go in this direction.

Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI (at DAL)

Dallas Goedert has seen just one target since September, with a hamstring injury resulting in three straight DNPs. Goedert didn’t participate in practice last week, and this is just the most recent example of how prohibitive these soft tissue injuries can be.

Goedert caught seven of eight targets against his namesake for 80 yards a season ago, but he carries more risk than reward now until we get proof of health. If he should practice in full this week, he’ll be on the fringe of startable. However, I’d pencil in another option this week, and pivot should his health tick up as opposed to banking on it.

Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (at IND)

Evan Engram has been great since returning, right? He’s been operating at a 100-catch pace over the past month and is earning targets at an elite level. Well, over that stretch, he is the only tight end in the NFL being targeted on a higher percentage of his routes than Dalton Kincaid.

Buffalo’s star hasn’t yet turned those opportunities into fantasy goodness (just one finish better than TE10 through nine weeks this season), but I chase profiles this time of year. That is why I’ve sent out more than a few offers to try to up my Kincaid exposure before fantasy trade deadlines.

He’s seen an end-zone target in consecutive games and has seen his average depth of target slowly tick up after his usage early in the season looked more like that of a running back than a game-breaking pass catcher.

During a stretch last season (Week 17, Week 18, and Wild Card Round), Kincaid cleared 12.5 PPR points in three straight games. Who is to say a run like that doesn’t come before this fantasy season runs out? Who is to say it doesn’t come during a friendly December run?

Kincaid’s best football in terms of fantasy production, I believe, is ahead of him, and we could see some of that potential this weekend against a Colts defense that ranks no better than 26th in passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per pass attempt this season.

Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU (vs. DET)

It’s one thing to average under three catches per game for 27.1 yards; it’s another to serve up that production on 31.8 routes per game.

Dalton Schultz was one of three Texans to catch a pass last Thursday, but that more speaks to the limited number of options in Houston’s offense than anything it’s starting TE is doing right.

With a deep target in eight straight games, you could squint and find some per-target upside, but that upside has been more theoretical than practical up to this point. With Collins expected back to soak up that downfield usage, Schultz is off of my streaming radar until proven otherwise.

Evan Engram, TE | JAX (vs. MIN)

Evan Engram was a revolution at the TE position for fantasy managers last season, and he’s done well to live up to expectations.

2023:

• 1.64 PPR points per target
• 41.8 air yards per game
• 22.6% on-field target share

2024:

• 1.63 PPR points per target
• 42.4 air yards per game
• 25.6% on-field target share

The touchdown equity doesn’t grade out as a strength due to the offense’s limitations, but at the tight end position, a role like this gives Engram arguably the highest floor in the NFL. If you waited out the early injury, you’re likely to be rewarded with top-five production the rest of the way.

George Kittle, TE | SF (at TB)

For the first time since last October, George Kittle has surpassed 80 air yards in consecutive games; with a consistent role for the taking due to Brandon Aiyuk’s injury, he is on the very short list of players who can lead the position in fantasy points during the second half of the season.

I know there is a reflex to want to sell any tight end after any strong run of production, understanding that stable production at the position is nearly impossible to find — but I’m not doing it. You have, for my money, the best TE for the rest of the season, and you should be thrilled about the edge that gives you over your competition.

Hunter Henry, TE | NE (at CHI)

Drake Maye brings with him a different look to this New England Patriots offense, and that has me optimistic about the value of Hunter Henry moving forward.

With 20 catches over the past three weeks, Henry is tied for the position lead in involvement. No, I don’t think he’s a real threat to be among the reception leaders during the second half of the season, but there aren’t 10 tight ends with a greater role, and that’s enough to consider him a weekly TE1, even if it’s on the lower end.

Isaiah Likely, TE | BAL (vs. CIN)

A lack of production from Isaiah Likely after that big season opener is one thing, but the lack of opportunity is another. Likely has one air yard over the past two weeks, and that’s just not going to cut it for a player who has to win with athleticism to pay off your loyalty.

I like the profile, and I think there’s something here long-term, but as long as Mark Andrews is active, you should be looking elsewhere for 2024.

Jake Ferguson, TE | DAL (vs. PHI)

Jake Ferguson had a 27-yard catch on Dallas’ first offensive play last week and a 15-yarder on the third play. He’s got a level of slippery to him that you don’t see often at the tight end position, and that has allowed him to both get open (he and Brock Bowers are tied atop the position in games with at least six receptions this season) and turn a short target into something more.

Fergy was a top-six tight end in both games against the Eagles last season, totaling 163 yards and a touchdown across those two games. I like this matchup, and I like this player, I just don’t like this Cooper Rush-led offense.

That doesn’t mean you automatically bench Ferguson, however. Look at your waiver wire and see if you can find an option with a trustworthy QB that you can plug in. If your leagues are anything like mine, those players were scooped up a month ago.

By EPA, Philadelphia is the fourth most vulnerable defense to the slot, and Ferguson has proven a capable producer in that role (76.1% catch rate). The downgrade at quarterback certainly hurts the floor projection, but I expect the volume to remain stable and that’s enough for him to earn a top-10 ranking for me.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE | CAR (vs. NYG)

Is there some value after all in this Carolina passing game?

We always preach about wanting a positive game script when it comes to pass catchers in our never-ending chase for volume, and it’s hard to feel better about a situation on that front than a team that has, even with a win last week, lost 22 of its past 26 games.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, a fourth-round rookie out of Texas, is one of four tight ends under the age of 25 who has seen at least five targets in four of the past five weeks. Is that a low bar? Maybe, but with Brock Bowers, Kyle Pitts, and Trey McBride being the only other names on that list, all of whom you’re starting weekly, it’s worth being aware of.

Some of those options benefit from strong overall offensive volume — not the case for Sanders. He’s seen a target share north of 20% in three of his past four games when he’s on the field, showcasing an ability to earn looks; that is rare for this point in the growth curve.

Sanders’ 252-pound frame gives him the potential to post up and open throwing lanes, a skill set that I’m happy to have in my lineup against a defense that has posted two of their three highest blitz rates over the past three weeks.

Is he that much different than tight ends like Hunter Henry or Cole Kmet, players in similarly inconsistent offenses? I’d say no, and he’s available in a ton of spots if you’re desperate.

Jonnu Smith, TE | MIA (at LAR)

One of these things is not like the other, one of these things doesn’t belong.

• George Kittle
• Travis Kelce
• Brock Bowers
• David Njoku
• Evan Engram
• Jonnu Smith

That’s the list of tight ends that have caught four passes in each of their past four games. This is a cheap way to bet on Miami, and that’s a bet I’m more than comfortable making against a Rams defense that is in the bottom five in yards per pass, YAC, and passing-touchdown rate this season.

The Dolphins are averaging 39.5% more yards per play since Tua Tagovailoa came back than they did in the games they missed. Smith is, at best, the fourth option in this passing game, but I think that can be enough to flirt with TE1 status in Week 10.

Juwan Johnson, TE | NO (vs. ATL)

Juwan Johnson pulled down a 25-yard grab shortly after Chris Olave’s injury, the third time in four games that the 28-year-old had a reception of 20+ yards. I’m in no hurry to bet on anything involved with New Orleans these days, but with the rash of injuries and the potential to use Taysom Hill as a weapon more than a tight end, Johnson deserves to be on the fringes of streamability this week.

I still prefer players like Ja’Tavion Sanders and Jonnu Smith, but every league is different; if you are desperate, Johnson is there for the taking in a game script that figures to work in the favor of the passing game.

Kyle Pitts, TE | ATL (at NO)

One week after Kyle Pitts landed a pair of long touchdowns, he earned one target in what looked, on paper, like a strong matchup against the Cowboys.

Ugh.

When my wife looks at me and asks why my eyes are bloodshot and points to gray hair, she knows the cause. Attempting to pin the tail on Pitts’ production is a struggle I wouldn’t wish upon my worst enemy, especially if you’re trying to live a balanced life.

So now what? What does Week 10 hold? These Saints kept Pitts off the stat sheet in the Week 4 meeting (three targets on 24 routes), but I’m smarter than that. I’m smarter than taking evidence and suggesting that it has anything to do with Pitts’ future.

Pitts’ two lowest route participation marks this season have come in the past two weeks, and that has me trending away from him this week, but I’d be lying if I said it was with great levels of confidence.

The Saints are taking on water and just allowed Ja’Tavion Sanders to turn five targets into 87 yards. Ruling Pitts out of lineups (season-long or DFS) isn’t my move, but neither is locking him in.

See why the gray hairs present themselves?

I have him ranked as my TE8 this week, understanding that a TE3 or TE23 finish is more likely. This is a bet against the direction of New Orleans more than anything — how lucky do you feel?

Mark Andrews, TE | BAL (vs. CIN)

Mark Andrews ran 27.7 routes per game last season, and that allowed him to earn the type of volume, even in an offense structured around the ground game, to return consistent, viable production.

The Ravens have won six of their past seven games, a stretch that has seen the veteran tight end run more than 22 routes just a single time. Father Time is one thing, but not being given the opportunity to produce is another. Is Baltimore telling us that there is skill deterioration here instead of letting us see it for ourselves?

I think that’s possible, and that’s concerning, but at the same time, it’s clear that they aren’t punting on him completely, even with an athletic option waiting in the wings. Andrews’ aDOT is up 18.3% from a season ago. With six red-zone touches over his past five games, it’s clear that they still value what he brings to the table, even if it’s not what it once was.

When factoring all of that in, Andrews profiles as a matchup play more than the All-Pro we were hoping for this summer. That’s not ideal, but against the 27th-ranked red-zone defense in the league, we can project Andrews to get his chances to produce on Thursday night.

Will he make the most of his limited opportunities? I can’t predict the future (what fun would it be if I knew what was coming?), but I can tell you that the numbers suggest that he will get the opportunity, and that’s worth investing in at a position like this.

Mike Gesicki, TE | CIN (at BAL)

A big day for Mike Gesicki in Week 9 against the Raiders almost got started even earlier — this high-end athlete made a sprawling catch near the pylon but was ruled (correctly) out of bounds. He ultimately found pay dirt in the third quarter as Joe Burrow was scrambling and found his tight end in the back of the end zone.

An all-out blitz resulted in a 47-yard fourth-quarter score to cap an already strong performance. If you started Gesicki, you made up serious ground at the position and might be thinking that you have a TE1 the rest of the way on your hands. Is that right?

Now, for the elephant in the room: the Tee Higgins thing. Here are two charts; the overall value of the targets looks about the same, right? Both showcase short, highly efficient targets.

The difference is volume. The chart on the left is with Higgins on the field (85 routes run for Gesicki) and the right is without Higgins (91 routes run). His role in this offense is the same regardless of who is active — he’s on this planet to run routes, not block — but Joe Burrow gives him all the work he can handle when he is elevated to essentially the second option.

Higgins’ status is a moving target, though, with no time spent on the practice field since suffering this injury two weeks ago, he should be considered unlikely to play until proven otherwise. If we are operating under that assumption, Gesicki is a low-end TE1 with a reasonable floor thanks to the projectable usage, especially with Erick All Jr. ruled out for the season following a torn ACL.

Pat Freiermuth, TE | PIT (at WAS)

We are 47.1% of the way through the regular season for the Steelers, far beyond the acceptable range for a player to have 24.7% of their fantasy points come from two receptions, but that is the case for Pat Freiermuth.

This offense has taken steps forward under Russell Wilson but at the expense of their tight end, who has posted two of his three lowest snap shares this season since the quarterback change. I understand wanting to target this Washington defense who, even after a nice stretch, still ranks 27th in opponent passing touchdown rate this season — but this isn’t the way to do it.

Patty Football is hardly a top-20 tight end for me this week.

Sam LaPorta, TE | DET (at HOU)

Sam LaPorta is in one of the more confounding and frustrating situations in fantasy this season. He proved plenty capable of earning targets at a strong rate last season and ranks fifth among qualifiers at the position this season in PPR points per target.

If you gave me that last sentence back in August, I would have run to the third round and been thrilled with drafting Detroit’s young tight end at his Tier 1 cost at the position.

So far, that’s been a losing proposition, and I’m not sure that changes anytime soon. LaPorta doesn’t have a finish better than TE8 this season, and that’s because he has just 26 targets on his ledger.

The lack of opportunity isn’t due to a lack of efficiency or playing time, it’s simply the result of being attached to an elite offense that spreads the ball around and prefers to establish dominance with the run first and foremost. I remain bullish on the talent, but at this point, I’m starting him weekly because of the scoring equity that comes with this offense more so than my confidence in his involvement.

I labeled LaPorta as a high-floor option this summer with elite upside. He’s no longer either of those things, but that doesn’t mean you pivot — it means you adjust your expectations. Even with diminished thoughts, he’s a top-10 tight end, and there’s no reason to second-guess starting him on Sunday night with the Lions’ implied point total clearing 25 points this season.

Taysom Hill, TE | NO (vs. ATL)

Taysom Hill had eight opportunities (targets + rush attempts) in his return to action in Week 8 against the Chargers, a number that increased to 10 against the Panthers on Sunday. Sometimes his touches come in bunches as the Saints attack defensive personnel on the field, but that wasn’t the reason he was involved in Week 9 — he was handed the ball on New Orleans’ second play.

With Derek Carr back, this offense was able to offer some scoring equity, and that puts HIll in a position to succeed. He handled consecutive red-zone snaps under center in the second quarter — he pushed forward for a third-down conversion before scoring from seven yards out on the next play.

He’s not a bulletproof play, and I’m not overly optimistic that this offense is capable of moving the ball with regularity as his teammates continue to fall. However, he’s a top-12 option for me this week thanks to his unique skill set. You might like the Texans, Commanders, and Bengals’ defenses more than what the Saints are running out there, but I prefer Hill to the tight ends in all of those situations with a bottom-10 EPA defense on the other side of the ball.

T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN (at JAX)

T.J. Hockenson played only 45.1% of the snaps on Sunday, his season debut (2023: 79.6%), but he did post an 11.5-yard aDOT (2023: 7.6), an interesting development. Does it stick?

I wouldn’t bank on it. I saw some general worries come across my timeline with Josh Oliver hauling in all five of his targets (58 yards and a TD) on Sunday, but I’d argue that is more encouraging than discouraging. When trying to project Hockenson moving forward, I want the TE position to be productive — I’m plenty comfortable in assuming that a healthy version of him takes over the lead role before long.

We may see the veteran tight end’s snap share slowly work back to what we saw last season, but in this matchup, I’m running through that stop sign and plugging him in where I have him. Through nine weeks, the Jags own the worst yards-per-play defense, in large part because they allow the sixth-highest percentage of yards gained against them to come through the air (67.9%).

Travis Kelce, TE | KC (vs. DEN)

Travis Kelce led the Chiefs in receiving yards in both games against the Broncos last season, accounting for one-third of their receiving yards in those games. With this offense looking the way it does, Kelce is as important for this team moving the chains, and while the Broncos are the seventh-best defense against the slot this season, the veteran tight end should be plenty busy as Patrick Mahomes stays away from Pat Surtain II.

I understand if you want to fade a 35-year-old tight end on a short work week in the middle of a season playing for a team with its eyes set on January rather than Week 10 in DFS, but you’re not getting cute in season-long formats.

Trey McBride, TE | ARI (vs. NYJ)

Trey McBride’s six-target streak came to an end on Sunday against the Bears, and yet he still reached double figures in PPR points for a fifth straight game.

Did it take a rushing touchdown? It did, but you don’t draw up plays like that for players whose hands you are not actively trying to get on the ball. McBride’s average depth of target is up 25.8% from his encouraging rookie season. Given his stable volume, that role tweak is more of a ceiling elevator than one that lowers his floor.

The Jets’ defense is great, but they are attacked vertically consistently (highest opponent average depth of throw this season), seemingly because offenses aren’t confident in their ability to sustain drives otherwise, and that lands McBride where he typically resides: my top tier at the position.

Tyler Conklin, TE | NYJ (at ARI)

You would think that Aaron Rodgers showing signs of form would be a boon to the value of his starting tight end. But as it turns out, Rodgers was able to get rolling by almost exclusively featuring his top two pass-catchers… go figure.

In the Week 9 win, New York’s top receiver not named Adams or Wilson had — checks notes — 12 receiving yards. This is a low-volume offense that is highly condensed, and that leaves players like Tyler Conklin (under five air yards in three of his past four games) out in the cold.

There are a handful of tight ends on your waiver wire that I’d rather take a shot on than Conklin.

Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (vs. PIT)

Zach Ertz’s three-game streak of scoring in double figures (PPR) came to an end on Sunday after a disappointing one-target effort against the Giants. But that’s the nature of the beast when dancing with this Commanders passing game.

Washington finished Week 9 with twice as many rush attempts as pass attempts even with starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. sidelined. This team is a poor man’s version of Baltimore, and in spots where we expect them to control the tempo, it’s going to be hard for pass catchers not named Terry McLaurin.

Sportsbooks are essentially labeling this game a coin flip, and I think that works in the favor of those looking to stream the tight end position. For the season, 70.8% of yards gained against the Steelers have come through the air (fourth-highest), another feather in the cap of Ertz and a reason I have him as a top-15 option at the position this week.