Michael Pittman Jr.’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

How has the Michael Pittman Jr. dynasty discussion changed after the star receiver posted a career year in 2023? Check out where he stacks up!

The Indianapolis Colts will be looking to watch their offense improve with explosive QB Anthony Richardson back leading the charge in 2024. He returns from a shoulder injury that cost him 13 games during his rookie season.

Subsequently, there is some confusion when looking to properly handle the dynasty ranking for Michael Pittman Jr., as there is no shortage of moving pieces.

Can he build on a career year and excel moving forward, or is a versatile quarterback a bad thing for a fantasy football WR1 who relies on volume? Future seasons have a wide range of outcomes for Pittman Jr. if he stays in Indianapolis, and that uncertainty only grows should he take his talents elsewhere as he hits free agency.

Michael Pittman Jr.’s Dynasty Outlook

Any 26-year-old who is riding a three-season stretch with 296 catches and plays for a balanced offense with upside at the quarterback position should be of interest to you. Pittman fits that billing, at least for now.

The high-pedigree wideout set career highs in catches (109) and receiving yards (1,152) during a strong 2023 campaign. The Colts pivoted from the athletic stylings of Richardson under center to the gunslinging ways of Gardner Minshew, a forced change that had the potential to crater Pittman’s fantasy football stock.

Instead, he thrived.

Despite missing a game, Pittman finished with 11 more catches than any of his teammates had targets. He shined brightest in the middle of the season to help position your team for a playoff run (over 75 yards or a touchdown in eight of nine games from Weeks 6 through Week 14).

That’s all well and good, but dynasty fantasy football is about looking out the windshield and not the rearview mirror. The fact that Pittman was able to succeed with Minshew calling the shots was great, but it doesn’t mean much when evaluating his future value.

This offense will look considerably different in 2024 and, ideally, for the Colts, for the rest of his career.

MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart

Indianapolis was working in a new head coach — one that has now been a part of three straight top-12 scoring teams — a new offensive coordinator, and injuries to star players at quarterback and running back.

You could argue that they were learning on the fly in 2023. Imagine what Pittman can do with some stability.

Pittman’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Pittman land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Pittman lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) Cooper Kupp | LAR
14) DJ Moore | CHI
15) Nico Collins | HOU
16) Rashee Rice | KC
17) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
18) Amari Cooper | CLE
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) Stefon Diggs | BUF
21) DK Metcalf | SEA
22) Zay Flowers | BAL
23) Drake London | ATL
24) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
25) Davante Adams | LV
26) Mike Evans | TB
27) Tank Dell | HOU
28) Jayden Reed | GB
29) Deebo Samuel | SF
30) Calvin Ridley | JAX

Should You Trade Pittman in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Pittman? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!

It should be noted that Pittman is set to hit the open market this offseason, as his rookie deal has expired. An extension wasn’t much discussed heading into 2023, and after a big season, the star receiver is well aware that he can cash in.

“I feel like it’s worked out in my favor. If I had done a deal at the beginning of the year, it probably would’ve been less than what I could potentially get in the future.”

That may not be music to the ears of Colts fans, but it’s true. It’s also true that Indianapolis has a potential franchise QB on a rookie deal, so there is some financial flexibility on its end.

Pittman is going to be a fantasy starter and a target in dynasty leagues, regardless of where he plays. His athletic profile and ability to handle a variety of coverages are transferable, and where he sits on the age curve suggests that his best football is ahead of him.

Should he stay in Indy, this is what Pittman has to build on during his limited time with Richardson under center:

  • 27.2% target share
  • 25.3% target rate (targets/routes)
  • 59.1% catch rate
  • 9.7 aDOT (average depth of target)

If he moves on, Pittman’s ceiling will be incredibly lucrative. Some high-powered offenses could be looking for a WR1 (I’m looking at you, Kansas City, and Baltimore), and that could elevate his stock well beyond what we saw in 2023.

Should he become Patrick Mahomes‘ top target in 2024 (and beyond), he’d threaten WR1 status in my WR rankings, while Rashee Rice‘s stock would fall to a middling WR2.

Pittman played well under Minshew — one of the best backups in football. However, he’s multiple steps below the quarterbacks that competitive teams can offer Pittman. Here’s how Pittman fared with the backup under center:

  • 31.4% target share
  • 29.6% target rate
  • 71.6% catch rate
  • 7.6 aDOT

If you’re curious where Pittman can grow his fantasy production, it’s down the field. He has caught under 26% of his deep passes (15+ air yards) in consecutive seasons and only has three career touchdowns on those passes.

His average depth of target (aDOT) spike with Richardson under center would hint at that potentially becoming part of his game, but should he move on, the potential is off the charts.

  • Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: Career-high CMP% on deep throws in 2023
  • Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: Career-low in passer rating on deep throws in 2023 (by 30.3 points!)

Jackson’s growth is encouraging, and the uncharacteristic “struggles” of Mahomes give Kansas City the greenest of lights to chase a 6’4” receiver with NFL experience.

My initial thought is that Pittman is a good buy if he stays with the Colts, as there is the potential for failure with Richardson at QB that could creep into the minds of managers.

KEEP READING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Startup Draft Strategies

Should he take his talents to an elite offense, though, Pittman’s perception is going to be that of a WR1. That’ll make him nearly impossible to acquire, given the upside.

If you have Pittman, I’m holding. There are too many paths to sustained stardom for you to consider cashing in this chip after a big year. The future is bright, and he might well prove to be a foundational piece on dynasty winners for years to come!

With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.

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