As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Michael Pittman Jr.
Michael Pittman Jr.’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
Heading into the 2022 season, there was no player I wanted more than Pittman. He wasn’t just one of my guys; he was the guy — the No. 1 player I believed in.
A big part of why I believed in Pittman was that, in addition to his talent, I believed in Ryan as an upgrade over Carson Wentz. I also pinpointed Pittman as the team’s WR1, likely to see a massive target share.
The process on Pittman was sound. He commanded a career-high 25.6% target share and ran a route on every single one of the Colts’ passing plays. Volume-wise, Pittman was everything I expected. Unfortunately, the efficiency was nowhere near up to par.
The combination of Ryan’s inability to throw downfield and Indianapolis’ reluctance to push the ball downfield resulted in Pittman seeing a 6.9 average depth of target, which was outside the top 90. He saw just five deep targets all season — outside the top 100.
Pittman’s 1.57 yards per route run was outside the top 50. His 6.6 yards per target and 9.3 yards per reception were outside the top 80.
It’s easy to look at Pittman’s production and write him off. Not in the sense that he’s useless, but more so that he’s nothing more than a volume-based WR3 in fantasy.
I would love to see Pittman in a competent offense, though. I still think the WR1 upside is there. But the value has undoubtedly declined, given his 2022 season.
Michael Pittman Jr.’s Fantasy Ranking
The unfortunate part of Pittman’s game is he is heavily reliant on volume and QB play. At this point, I’m not overly confident Pittman will get the quarterback play he needs in 2023 to be more than the 13-14 ppg guy he’s been the past two seasons.
We still have Pittman as a WR2. He’s currently WR21 (No. 56 overall) in our dynasty Superflex rankings.
Pittman is just 25 years old. He’s also in the final year of his rookie contract. If the Colts don’t extend him, he very well could be playing somewhere else in 2024. Indianapolis could also fix its QB situation by 2024.
All of this is to say there are multiple paths to Pittman — an objectively talented wide receiver — finding himself in a much more advantageous position as early as next season. As a result, I would look to buy Pittman at cost or cheaper, if you can.
At worst, you should walk away with a capable WR2/3 fantasy starter. At best, Pittman’s value could increase considerably between 2023 and 2024, making your acquisition of him (or decision to hang onto him) look really good. At his reduced price, I am once again in on Pittman in dynasty startup drafts.
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