Here’s the Miami Dolphins’ new rallying cry, courtesy of Tua Tagovailoa following his team’s latest loss:
“We’re trying to win out.”
To reach the postseason for the third time in as many years, they might just need to. Not only are the Dolphins 2-6 and the 12 seed after their Week 9 loss to the Buffalo Bills, but they already have four conference L’s.
That means that even if they can close the 2.5-game gap between themselves and the Denver Broncos (who currently occupy the No. 7 seed), they could still miss out due to tiebreakers.
Miami Dolphins Playoff Odds
That’s why the Dolphins, as of Monday morning, had just an 11.9% chance to reach the postseason, per PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
If they somehow do, it will almost certainly be as the 7 seed — which would likely mean yet another cold-weather road trip in the Wild Card round.
The Dolphins’ odds of winning the AFC East after Sunday’s loss to the Bills? One in 149.
Their projected win/loss per PFN’s metrics are between 6.2 and 10.8, but that’s driven largely by their soft remaining schedule strength (27th overall).
Which is why the team’s apparent reluctance to sell at the trade deadline — plugged-in Miami-based agent Drew Rosenhaus said on the local FOX affiliate Sunday that the Dolphins have actually been aggressively making calls to acquire talent, not shed it — is so confounding.
The season is basically lost already. They either don’t know it yet or refuse to admit it.
According to 4for4’s Lookahead Lines, the Dolphins are underdogs in seven of their last nine games, including next Monday against the Los Angeles Rams (they’re +2.5 a week out).
Miami’s projected win rate is under 50% for all but three of its last nine, per PFN’s metrics. The only games in which the Dolphins will be clear favorites the rest of the way are at home against the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots in Weeks 11 and 12, respectively.
History is working against them as well.
Only one team this millennium has made the playoffs after posting just two wins through nine weeks of the NFL season: the 2020 Washington Commanders. That Washington team was also 2-6 but with a -35 point differential through nine weeks. The Dolphins are at -63.
Since the NFL expanded to a 17-game schedule and a 14-team playoff field, there’s been one 2-6 team to reach the playoffs: The 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars, who actually had a positive point differential after eight games.
Certainly, many of the Dolphins’ stats are skewed because the offense is so much better with Tagovailoa (seventh in OFF+ in games in which he has played) than it is without him (30th).
But the defense has cratered since he’s returned. They’re 31st in defensive EPA per play (.214) in the last two weeks.
Put it all together, and the Dolphins turning their season around and making a playoff run would be among the unlikeliest developments of the last 25 years.
With the trade deadline just hours away, they should act accordingly.