Lions vs. Packers Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Jared Goff, Jordan Love, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Others

In a battle for first place in the NFC North, our betting team gives their favorite Lions vs. Packers player prop bets for Thursday Night Football.

The Detroit Lions were the favorites to win the NFC North going into the 2023 NFL season, but the Green Bay Packers have emerged as a surprise threat.

The Minnesota Vikings are 0-3, as their regression following their 2022 season has hit harder than anyone could’ve possibly imagined. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears still look like the worst team in football.

It’s been just three weeks, but the Lions vs. Packers on Thursday Night Football looks like a battle between the two teams competing for the 2023 NFC North division title.

Each of these teams has dealt with injuries on the offensive side of the ball. David Montgomery missed last week due to a thigh injury and is currently questionable for tonight.

Meanwhile, Christian Watson has yet to play this season due to a hamstring injury, and Aaron Jones has been sidelined for the last two weeks. Both players are active tonight however.

Let’s take a look at the Lions vs. Packers player prop bets and our favorite plays for this evening.

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Top Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets To Target

Our team of betting experts give out their favorite player prop bets for Lions vs. Packers on Thursday Night Football.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.

Jared Goff Player Props

  • Passing Yards: 251.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
  • Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
  • Pass Completions: 19.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
  • Pass Attempts: 34.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
  • Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Katz: For 31 NFL teams, they start the same quarterback every week (in theory). For the Lions, they have two: Home Jared Goff and Road Goff. These are two entirely different quarterbacks that vastly differ in talent.

Over his last 13 road starts, Goff has thrown multiple touchdowns just once. While the Packers haven’t exactly faced the most imposing opposing quarterbacks, they have yet to allow more than a single passing touchdown in a game.

Pick: Jared Goff under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100 at DraftKings earlier this week)

Amon-Ra St. Brown Player Props

  • Receiving Yards: 72.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
  • Receptions: 6.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
  • Longest Reception: 23.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +125
  • First Touchdown Scorer: +800

Bearman: Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone 71, 102, and 102 yards in each of his three games this season, including 9-102, while banged up ahead of the  Atlanta Falcons game.

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His number sits at 72.5, which I like to go over. Full transparency: He went for 49 and 55 last year vs. the Packers, but 28 targets in three games this year is an average of over nine per game, which should lead to over 72 yards.

Pick: St. Brown over 72.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Sam LaPorta Player Props

  • Receiving Yards: 43.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
  • Receptions: 4.5 (Over +120/Under -150)
  • Longest Reception: 17.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +200
  • First Touchdown Scorer: +1100

Blewis: Sam LaPorta has exceeded his early expectations so far, as tight ends typically don’t contribute right away.

However, after two games in a row against the second and seventh-worst teams in defending tight ends last season, LaPorta is going against a Packers defense that allowed the second-fewest yards to tight ends last season.

LaPorta had 84 yards on 11 targets last week, but take away his 45-yard touchdown in which he was wide open, and he would’ve gone under his receiving yards prop for tonight on 10 targets.

Fanatics currently has the best number for this prop, but I also like the under at 44.5, which you can get at FanDuel if Fanatics isn’t available in your state.

Pick: LaPorta under 45.5 receiving yards (-110 at Fanatics)

Jordan Love Player Props

  • Passing Yards: 231.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
  • Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
  • Pass Completions: 19.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
  • Pass Attempts: 32.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
  • Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -140/Under +100)

Blewis: Playing from behind down 17 points entering the 4th quarter, Jordan Love had 44 pass attempts last week, 17 higher than his previous season high in the first two weeks.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) celebrates defeating the New Orleans Saints during their football game Sunday, September 24, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) celebrates defeating the New Orleans Saints during their football game Sunday, September 24, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.

I’m on the Packers +1.5 tonight, and I like their chances of winning outright. But I’m even more confident in them not having to play behind two scores late in the game.

Aaron Jones’ return tonight will also allow them to lean on the run game more, as A.J. Dillon hasn’t been very efficient during Jones’ absence.

Pick: Love under 32.5 pass attempts (-102 at FanDuel)

Romeo Doubs Player Props

  • Receiving Yards: 39.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
  • Receptions: 3.5 (Over +114/Under -145)
  • Longest Reception: 18.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +195
  • First Touchdown Scorer: +1200

Blewis: There is a ton of juice on the under for Romeo Doubs’ receptions prop tonight, as 60% of his 20 targets for the season came last week, and the Packers are getting both Watson and Jones back tonight.

Doubs, however, ranks just 168th in the NFL this season in catch rate at 55%. Much of this can be attributed to Love’s low completion percentage of 53.1%, as he is leading starting quarterbacks in aDOT so far this season.

There is some positive regression coming Doubs’ way, but even at plus money, it’s hard taking his receptions over without knowing the statuses of both Watson and Jones.

With how Love “loves” to throw the ball downfield, I can see Doubs going over his longest reception prop, regardless of who is active tonight.

Lean: Doubs over 18.5 yards longest reception (-114 at DraftKings)

Dontayvion Wicks Player Props

  • Receiving Yards: 18.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
  • Receptions: 1.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
  • Longest Reception: 12.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +700
  • First Touchdown Scorer: +3500

Soppe: This game features two below-average teams in pace of play and above-average defenses in terms of yards per play allowed, leading me to think this could be another one of those ugly Thursday nighters.

In Week 1 with Jones active, Dontayvion Wicks was held without a catch on two targets (37 snaps played). That target count ranked seventh on the team in a game where Watson didn’t play, and Luke Musgrave was making his NFL debut.

Wicks’ primary value this season has come down the field. He has a 32-yard touchdown on his résumé (16 air yards) and a pair of long DPIs drawn. What happens now that Watson is back and will be running those deep routes?

Wicks is, at best, the fourth option in this passing game with a possession cap on this game due to pace (not to mention Love’s 53.1% completion rate), so his number of chances is likely to be limited.

The target count is a tough sell, and with him ranking fourth on this team in aDOT, he likely needs multiple catches to beat us (that touchdown, which should have only been a 16-yard gain, is his only 19-plus yard catch).

Pick: Wicks under 18.5 receiving yards (-135 at DraftKings)

Luke Musgrave Player Props

  • Receiving Yards: 35.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
  • Receptions: 3.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
  • Longest Reception: 17.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +285
  • First Touchdown Scorer: +1500

Blewis: It’s just a three-week sample size, but the Lions have surrendered the most receiving yards to tight ends this season, including 74 more yards than the next worst team. This comes despite playing against the Kansas City Chiefs without Travis Kelce.

Musgrave is another rookie tight end who has been heavily involved in their offense so far this season. He currently leads all tight ends in average depth of target (aDOT) at 13.7 and is fourth in air yards (96).

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Watson’s return might diminish Musgrave’s role in the passing game, but they could bring him along slowly after missing the first three weeks. If you like his over, DraftKings is giving you three yards of value compared to FanDuel at the moment.

Lean: Musgrave over 35.5 receiving yards (-125 at DraftKings)

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