New Orleans Saints running back Latavius Murray is one of the most sought-after backups among fantasy football managers. He finished as an RB3+ in 87% of his games in PPR formats last season. Will Murray’s 2021 fantasy outlook meet or exceed expectations, and what is his ADP?
Latavius Murray’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Murray only played 36% of the Saints’ offensive snaps last season, but he’s a valuable contributor to the team’s rushing attack. Murray’s rough running style and underestimated production are vital to the Saints’ offensive success. He is a physical runner who acts like a battering ram and is rarely brought down by one defender. Murray’s style is a perfect complement to Alvin Kamara.
Murray averaged 4.5 yards per rushing attempt in 2020 — his best since his rookie season. Furthermore, he averaged a career-high 6.8 yards per target. Overall, Murray stockpiled 832 yards and 5 touchdowns on 169 touches. His opportunity share was nearly identical to his first season with the Saints in 2019.
Kamara is still the Saints’ preferred option in the red zone. He finished last season with 28 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line. Murray, on the other hand, finished with only 12.
In 2020, Murray played in 15 games and faced eight or more defenders in the box on 45.3% of his 146 carries. He averaged 0.79 fantasy points per opportunity in 2020.
However, Murray continues to see fewer opportunities as a receiver out of the backfield. Since arriving in New Orleans, he has only averaged 2.2 targets per game. Murray is one-dimensional, which is unusual for a skill position player in head coach Sean Payton’s offense.
The Saints’ offense is unlikely to change regardless of who is under center
The Saints’ offense is unlikely to change whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill is named the starting quarterback. Payton has a history of leaning heavily on his running backs between the tackles and as receivers out of the backfield. He does an excellent job of utilizing his RBs in New Orleans, as they have averaged 34 opportunities per game. This will continue without future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees.
New Orleans’ offensive line continues to be a strength
Since Payton’s arrival, the Saints have consistently deployed one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. Further helping matters, New Orleans returns all five of its starters this season. Despite being in a great situation in New Orleans, Murray is not a threat to Kamara’s opportunity share in 2021.
Fantasy projection
It’s important to briefly examine Murray’s past before discussing his projection for 2021. He spent his first three seasons in the NFL with the Oakland Raiders and then two seasons with the Minnesota Vikings before joining the Saints. From 2014 to 2018, Murray averaged 14 opportunities, 61 total yards, and 10.6 PPR fantasy points per game.
In 2019, in Weeks 7 and 8, Murray finished as a top-three RB in fantasy while Kamara was out. He averaged 33 opportunities and 153.5 total yards per game.
In 2021, we have Murray projected for around 155 opportunities, 700 total yards, and 4 touchdowns.
Latavius Murray’s ADP
Murray is readily available after the 10th round of fantasy drafts when reviewing redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker. This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Murray has an ADP of 144. Meanwhile, his ADP in half PPR formats on Sleeper is 142.6.
Should you draft Murray in 2021?
Murray should be drafted as an RB4 with upside. If Kamara misses an extended amount of time, Murray would immediately elevate to RB1 status. He’s a great target if you are implementing a Zero RB strategy.
