One of the biggest post-hype candidates entering 2024 was Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts. After a pair of frustrating seasons in the wake of a Pro Bowl rookie campaign in 2021, Pitts seemed primed to bounce back under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
Instead, Pitts’ usage is somehow lower than ever, and his days of fantasy football relevance seem light years away. Is the former fourth overall pick a lost candidate, or does he represent a massive buy-low opportunity?
Unless otherwise stated, all stats are courtesy of TruMedia.
Should Fantasy Managers Buy Low On Kyle Pitts?
According to Pro Football Network’s Trade Analyzer, an appropriate return for Pitts would be a player along the lines of Isaiah Likely or Hunter Henry. PFN has him ranked as the No. 14 tight end in trade value for the rest of the 2024 season.
Even in a season where the tight end world has been a wasteland, it’s hard to value Pitts as a startable weekly option. His target rate has declined each of the last three seasons, cratering at 15% this season. That ranks 33rd among just tight ends and a gasp-inducing 177th overall. On the Falcons alone, Pitts ranks sixth in target rate.
Pitts did set season-highs with seven receptions for 88 yards in Week 5, but that came as part of Kirk Cousins’ record-setting 509-yard passing game, which included 58 pass attempts. Clearly, that type of volume is non-repeatable, and Pitts’ 15.1% target rate in that game was actually his median total for the season.
All-22 of Kyle Pitts 8 targets against the Tampa Bay Bucs last night.
Pitts caught 7 balls for 88 yards. He owned a 14.8% target share and ran 54 routes equating to an 84% route participation rate.
All his targets were short except for the 32-yard catch in the first quarter.… pic.twitter.com/6kw5exe0BS
— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout)
The issue is that Pitts is not seeing much value in his targets. His 7.7 aDOT is far below his career average of 11.7 from his first three seasons, as the Falcons are essentially using him as an underneath target only. Apart from his 32-yard catch to begin the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game — which was part of the opening script — Pitts did not see any vertical usage on Thursday night.
That makes him difficult to trust when coupled with his evergreen problem of scoring touchdowns. Pitts has received three red-zone targets all season, with his touchdown coming on a rare Cousins extended play in Week 1 when the Pittsburgh Steelers defense lost track of him.
The other factor is that Pitts has lined up as an in-line tight end on 53% of his snaps this season, way up from his 29.6% rate over his first three seasons. He’s already pass-blocked on 10 snaps this season after never pass-blocking on more than 14 snaps in a season over his first three years, which is not a helpful trend for fantasy purposes.
Atlanta’s offensive breakout in Week 5 brought revelations about Drake London and Darnell Mooney, but nothing about that game suggested a new usage method or spike in production for Pitts. So long as that remains the case, he’s a difficult player for fantasy managers to buy into.
