Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has been unfairly maligned in NFL circles for years. While never a guy who will carry a team to victory, he’s better than he gets credit for. The same goes for his fantasy ability. But in the era of mobile quarterbacks, is there still a spot for Cousins on your fantasy squad? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Kirk Cousins’ Fantasy Outlook
Looking back on Cousins’ performances over the years, it is truly remarkable how consistent he’s been. Since 2015, Cousins has averaged between 16.6 fantasy points per game and 20.0 ppg every season.
Once upon a time, Cousins was a very valuable fantasy quarterback. Back in 2016, he was the overall QB6. It’s not Cousins that has changed, but rather the rest of the NFL.
In 2016, 19.5 ppg was good for a top-six finish. From 2020-2022, Cousins averaged 20.0, 19.2, and 18.0 ppg, finishing as the QB11, QB12, and QB11. The average fantasy quarterback has gotten better, reducing the value of what Cousins provides.
Now entering his age-35 season, Cousins still looks every bit capable of producing at the level he has been. The question for fantasy managers is whether that’s something they want.
Last season, the elite quarterbacks provided a massive advantage over the rest of the field. While that is unlikely to happen again, just two years ago, we had nine quarterbacks crest the 20.0 ppg threshold. That’s pretty much Cousins’ ceiling. At best, you can consider Cousins a replacement-level QB1.
Now, to be fair, there is value in that. Cousins is likely going to finish in the QB10-14 range. Someone in your league is going to be better off with Cousins than the alternative. However, if you’re looking for a 22+ ppg ceiling, you’re probably not getting it from Cousins.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Cousins at His ADP?
There’s a lot to like about Cousins’ situation. The Vikings have become a pass-first offense, throwing the ball 63% of the time in a neutral game script last season. Releasing RB Dalvin Cook and spending a first-round pick on WR Jordan Addison only reaffirms their commitment to the pass.
Cousins has the best wide receiver in the NFL, Justin Jefferson, at his disposal. He’s also got a top-five(ish) tight end in T.J. Hockenson. The Vikings project to score a lot of points this season.
I have Cousins throwing for 4,804 yards and 32.3 touchdowns against 13.5 interceptions. Adding in menial rushing totals, my projections have him averaging 18.9 ppg and finishing as the QB13, right in line with his career performances.
Cousins’ ADP is currently right where I have him projected — the QB13, No. 109 overall. However, I have Cousins ranked slightly lower at QB15 due to the lack of a game-breaking ceiling.
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While Cousins is likely to outscore guys like Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, and Geno Smith, those three all have more upside. Therefore, I’d rather take a shot on them if I’ve waited on the position, as opposed to taking the reliable, if unspectacular, production of Cousins.
