Khalil Herbert’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

NFL free agency is always a whirlwind of activity. It can have significant effects on a player’s fantasy football value. That is exactly what happened to Chicago Bears RB Khalil Herbert. After a pretty chaotic 2023 season that saw him go from starter to injured to third-string back to starter, Herbert’s dynasty value is trending in the wrong direction.

Khalil Herbert’s Dynasty Outlook

Herbert’s 2023 season was quite the wild ride. It all started when he took a screen pass in the preseason 56 yards to the house. That singular play bumped his redraft ADP up by two full rounds. Optimism surrounded the Bears’ offense, and Herbert was poised to be the lead back.

Unfortunately, the season did not start that well for Herbert. He scored below 8.0 fantasy points in three of his first five games despite clearly being the lead back, averaging about a 60% snap share over the first five weeks of the season.

While it was clear Herbert wouldn’t be this major value, he was on track to be startable in fantasy. Then, in Week 5, Herbert hurt his ankle. The injury itself wasn’t that big of a deal. The problem was what happened while he was out.

During Herbert’s absence, D’Onta Foreman thrived. Foreman played so well that he flat-out took Herbert’s job.

When Herbert returned in Week 11, he played behind Foreman but still amassed 16 carries. However, he only managed 35 yards. That performance resulted in him being relegated to the RB3 behind Foreman and Roschon Johnson for the next three weeks.

From Weeks 12-15 (three total games), Herbert carried the ball six, three, and six times, respectively, while playing no more than 23% of the snaps in any individual game.

Then, in Week 16, Foreman missed the game due to an injury of his own. The Bears turned back to Herbert as their clear lead guy, and he wound up being a league winner, scoring 19.1 and 20.9 fantasy points, respectively, in Weeks 16 and 17.

I took the time to walk through the roller-coaster ride that was Herbert’s 2023 season to make two important points.

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1) Herbert is talented enough to be an RB2 in fantasy if given volume in the right circumstances.
2) The Bears have no allegiance to Herbert — or any of their running backs.

Point No. 2 was on full display in free agency. The Bears absolutely did not need to upgrade at running back. The 1-2 punch of Herbert and Johnson would’ve been just fine. Instead, the very first move they made was to sign D’Andre Swift.

Herbert’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Herbert land in the dynasty RB landscape looking ahead to the 2024 season? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, examining where Herbert sits in comparison to other late-round considerations at the position.

36) Chuba Hubbard | CAR
37) Raheem Mostert | MIA
38) Kendre Miller | NO
39) Trey Benson | FA
40) Jonathon Brooks | FA
41) Zack Moss | CIN
42) Tyler Allgeier | ATL
43) Blake Corum | FA
44) MarShawn Lloyd | FA
45) Braelon Allen | FA
46) Jaylen Wright | FA
47) Antonio Gibson | NE
48) Ty Chandler | MIN
49) Keaton Mitchell | BAL
50) Chase Brown | CIN
51) AJ Dillon | GB
52) Bucky Irving | FA
53) Roschon Johnson | CHI
54) Khalil Herbert | CHI
55) Alexander Mattison | FA
56) J.K. Dobbins | FA
57) Ezekiel Elliott | FA
58) Miles Sanders | CAR
59) Tank Bigsby | JAX
60) Elijah Mitchell | SF

Should You Trade Herbert in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Herbert? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!

Draft capital shouldn’t matter when a player has been in the league for three years, but last year was the first season Herbert was treated as the feature back. He’s still a former sixth-round pick on his rookie deal. Nothing is guaranteed to him.

This is a situation where fantasy managers must balance what a player does on the field against how NFL teams historically operate.

Last season, Herbert was pretty good! He averaged 4.9 yards per touch (19th in the league) and had a 20.4% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate (21st). With 5.3% of his rushes going for at least 15 yards, Herbert was 12th in that category.

Herbert also displayed proficiency as a receiver. His 9.5% target share, while not overly exciting, was a significant bump from 4.4% the year before. There’s clearly a useful player here.

With that being said, Herbert is entering the final year of his rookie deal. It’s safe to say the Bears are probably not going to re-sign him. With Swift installed as the clear starter, it’s unclear what Herbert’s role will even be this season. He could very well fall to RB3.

Barring something unexpected, like Swift getting hurt and Herbert excelling in his place, I have a difficult time envisioning whichever team gives him a second contract installing him as their lead back. That’s more of a 2025 problem, but dynasty managers need to take that into account.

KEEP READING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Strategies That Can Win Your League

Even before the Bears signed Swift, Herbert was unlikely to fetch much in a trade. Now, his dynasty value has just about reached its nadir.

You can and should try and trade Herbert. However, if the best you can get back is a fourth-round rookie pick, you might as well keep him and hope to get lucky.

As we look ahead to the 2024 fantasy football season, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.