Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III had both a fantastic rookie year and a concerning one, depending on how you choose to view it. With the Seahawks spending a second-round pick on another running back, is Walker’s ceiling capped? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Kenneth Walker III’s Fantasy Outlook
From a fantasy perspective, Walker objectively had a great rookie year. He averaged 13.5 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the RB13. But it was actually even better than that, as Walker did not take over for an injured Rashaad Penny until Week 5.
Walker missed Week 1 due to preseason hernia surgery. He returned in Week 2 and spent the next three weeks backing up Penny and barely touching the ball.
After Penny went down in Week 5, the Seahawks turned to Walker as their lead back. From that point forward, he averaged 15.8 ppg. Over a full season, that would’ve made him the RB8.
Looking at his overall body of work, Walker appears quite impressive. He averaged 2.97 yards created per touch, inside the top 20. He made defenders miss at a 31% clip, and 7.5% of his carries went for at least 15 yards. Those numbers ranked 12th and eighth, respectively.
At the same time, Walker was the ultimate home-run hitter. He didn’t necessarily run as if he was in constant search of a splash play, but if he didn’t bust off a big gain, he probably didn’t get very far. 24% of Walker’s runs were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. That was the worst in the league among backs with at least 100 carries.
Of course, in fantasy, we want the big plays. Those swing matchups. But in preparing for the upcoming season, we need to figure out if Walker is actually good.
Interestingly enough, the answer to that question may not be as important as what the Seahawks think the answer is. That will determine how much work Walker sees.
Just one year after drafting Walker in the second round, the Seahawks spent another second-round pick on Zach Charbonnet. Now, that doesn’t automatically mean he will play. After all, this is the same team that spent a first-round selection on Penny, only to repeatedly push seventh-rounder Chris Carson ahead of him.
One reason the team undoubtedly drafted Charbonnet is because of their experience last season when Walker was hurt. Behind Walker, they had Travis Homer, DeeJay Dallas, and Tony Jones. The first two are pure special teamers and “in case of emergency” guys. The latter should probably be in the XFL or USFL. Seattle needed someone reliable behind Walker.
MORE: Kenneth Walker III Injury Update — Latest on Seattle Seahawks Running Back
Charbonnet also brings with him receiving chops, which Walker lacked, as evidenced by his 5% best-season college target share and 7.2% target share as a rookie. But did the Seahawks really spend a second-round pick on a pure satellite back?
Charbonnet has a three-down skill set and ran for over 1,100 yards in each of his two seasons at UCLA. He’s definitely an upgrade on Walker as a passing-down back, but he can do more than that, which poses a threat to Walker.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Walker at His ADP?
Walker should open the season as the clear lead back, with Charbonnet likely relegated to passing downs. But that doesn’t mean things will stay that way. If the Seahawks were committed to Walker, I don’t think they would’ve spent a second-round pick on another running back.
They easily could’ve drafted a smaller, more traditional receiving back in the third or fourth round. My sense is they wanted a guy that could do more than just catch.
Of course, I could be wrong. We have no way of knowing if Walker’s role ever would’ve increased last season had Penny not gotten hurt. That suggests there’s a chance Walker maintains his role dominating early down and goal-line carries all season, provided he can stay healthy.
Even so, Walker comes with added risk now because of a competent running back behind him. If Walker does get hurt, even if he only misses a couple of games, if Charbonnet performs well, he is a threat to maintain increased work even when Walker returns.
Furthermore, what if Charbonnet is just better? Most NFL teams are slaves to draft capital and who is “supposed” to be good. The Seahawks, for all their faults, might be the one team that actually rewards players based on merit.
They paid Matt Flynn a huge free agent contract but started Russell Wilson as a rookie because he was better. They drafted Penny in the first round but started Carson because he was better. Is Walker better than Charbonnet? I’m not so sure.
Walker was going to be a top-10 running back by ADP entering this season had it not been for the team drafting Charbonnet. While it did drop, it still remains at RB15, No. 37 overall.
Apparently, I am more concerned about Charbonnet than the consensus. Walker is currently my RB18, below ADP. While I still have him 16 spots ahead of Charbonnet, I’m projecting a full-blown timeshare here, sapping the value of both backs.
My projections have Walker at 238 carries for 1,067 yards and 10.2 touchdowns on the ground, plus 22 catches for 137 yards and 1.7 touchdowns through the air. That comes out to 12.4 ppg and an RB27 finish.
Given my ranking and projection on Walker, even accounting for the upside in the event Charbonnet is far less of a threat than I’m projecting, I can’t justify Walker at his ADP.
It’s very difficult for running backs who don’t catch passes to be RB1s in fantasy. But the ones that can do it typically dominate carries. We can’t be confident enough that Walker will do that with Charbonnet around.
I definitely want pieces of this offense, but Walker is just too expensive for me to recommend drafting at his ADP.
