Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen has been as reliable as they come for a decade. Now 31 years old, Allen’s time in the NFL is nearing its end. Is this the year he starts to noticeably decline? What is Allen’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Keenan Allen’s Fantasy Outlook
We already know what the discourse will be on Allen following the upcoming season. The reaction will go one of two ways. We will either be kicking ourselves for not jumping ship on an old receiver we reasonably could have expected to decline, or we’ll be kicking ourselves for not drafting one of the most reliable receivers of the past decade that hasn’t shown any signs of decline, playing in a pass-first offense.
Since 2017, Allen has been reliable, bankable production. He’s been the prototypical high-floor, low-ceiling wide receiver. Few players have had a more narrow range of outcomes, and I mean that in the best way possible.
Fantasy managers knew what they were getting from Allen. He may not necessarily be the reason you won, but he was never the reason you lost.
Over the past six seasons, Allen has averaged no lower than 16.1 PPR fantasy points per game and no higher than 17.8. I didn’t actually look at the high and low ppg finishes of every WR over the past six seasons, but if I had to hazard a guess, I would say Allen’s 1.7 ppg gap between his best and worst seasons is the smallest in the league over that span. It might be the smallest over any six-year span of any wide receiver in NFL history.
Allen’s 17.8 average in 2017 was good for an overall WR3 finish. However, that had more to do with it being a down year for wide receivers. Otherwise, he’s finished between WR7 and WR13 every year. So, why is his ADP down at WR17, No. 43 overall for 2023?
There are three knocks on Allen’s profile we need to work through. First, and most obvious, is his age. At 31, we can expect Allen to decline within the next couple of years. With that said, he’s neither fast nor athletic. Allen’s not the type of receiver who relies heavily on physical gifts. As a result, he should age more gracefully than some of his contemporaries have, namely guys like Julio Jones and A.J. Green.
Over the past five seasons, Allen has averaged around a 50% slot rate. The Chargers can prolong Allen’s effectiveness by continuing to utilize him in the slot. That’s what the Arizona Cardinals did with a late-career Larry Fitzgerald, resulting in him having three of his best seasons at ages 32, 33, and 34. It would not shock me at all if Allen maintained WR2-level production into his mid-30s.
MORE: 2023 WR Fantasy Football Rankings
Second, Allen got hurt last season. Not only did he get hurt, it was his hamstring. We know hamstring strains linger and that receivers in their 30s have a much harder time recovering and playing through them than those in their 20s.
Allen is a very different receiver than Jones, but it wasn’t Julio’s ability that failed him — it was his body. In his 30s, Jones could no longer battle through the nagging soft tissue injuries he could when he was younger. It’s possible we saw the beginning of that last season with Allen.
At the same time, Allen has been a remarkably durable player throughout his career. Despite an unjustified injury-prone label early in his 20s, Allen missed exactly three games from 2013-2014. A lacerated kidney and torn ACL in the 2015 and 2016 seasons were both fluke occurrences and in no way indicative of ongoing injury issues. From 2017-2020, he went on to miss exactly four games.
Unfortunately, Allen did miss seven games last season. That, combined with his age, has fantasy managers feeling a bit trepidatious about him going into this season.
Then, there’s Quentin Johnston, who the Chargers spent a first-round pick on. While Johnston looks much more like a Mike Williams replacement than an Allen replacement, the fact remains he will command more targets than the likes of Joshua Palmer, Jalen Guyton, or DeAndre Carter have over the past couple of years.
Allen’s 22.5% target share last season was his lowest since his rookie year. His targets-per-route run rate has already dropped considerably over the past two seasons. However, Allen’s 2.35 yards per route run was his highest mark since 2018, and he’s still getting open at an elite rate.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Allen at His ADP?
By all accounts, Allen is still a very good receiver. Statistically, and using the eye test, he hasn’t shown any signs of breaking down.
Allen is also tethered to an elite young quarterback in Justin Herbert, and the Chargers have a forward-thinking offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, who was the architect behind the Dallas Cowboys’ No. 1 scoring offense with Dak Prescott over the better part of the past four years.
The Chargers are already one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL. With Tom Brady gone, they project to lead the NFL in pass attempts. Herbert has averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game over his career. Even after playing at the fastest pace last season, Los Angeles’ offense is now being run by the guy whose offense played at the fourth-fastest pace a year ago.
The Chargers should throw the ball a lot, with Allen remaining the top target. My projections have him catching 117 passes for 1,294 yards and 5.7 touchdowns. Right in line with what he’s been doing his entire career, I have Allen finishing as the WR10 at 16.5 ppg.
The only real concern for me when it comes to Allen is injury, but it’s not a strong enough data point to fade a player I’m confident will produce above his ADP when healthy. One season with a lingering hamstring strain is not going to push me off of Allen.
My ranking for Allen is at WR17, which is pretty much his floor if he stays healthy. I do prefer younger, ascending players, but when it’s all said and done, I expect us to look back on this season and wonder why we undervalued Allen once again.
