The 2025 season has taken an unexpected turn for the Kansas City Chiefs. After a shaky 1–2 start, they briefly looked like they were returning to their Super Bowl-caliber form, but a 5–5 stretch since then has pushed them to the edge of the playoff picture.
Now sitting third in the AFC West, with crucial matchups against the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos still ahead, Kansas City faces an increasingly difficult path to secure a postseason berth.
Can The Chiefs Still Make The Playoffs?
While the Chiefs have struggled with consistency this season, it’s difficult to pin the blame on quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Despite a few rough outings, the two-time NFL MVP has performed mainly at an elite level, ranking eighth in PFSN’s QB Impact metric. The offense has shown plenty of firepower as well, but a mix of inconsistency and misfortune has repeatedly derailed the Chiefs’ momentum.
Following their Thanksgiving loss to the Dallas Cowboys, the Chiefs fell to 6–6 and entered Week 14 with just a 21.5% chance of making the playoffs, according to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor. Their hopes of winning the AFC West are effectively over, leaving only the wildcard route as an option.
Week 14 brought a critical matchup against the surging Houston Texans, and a true must-win for Kansas City. A victory would have lifted their playoff odds to 36.8%, keeping their postseason dreams alive.
Unfortunately, they lost to the Texans and now have only an 8.1% chance of making the playoffs. Moreover, Kansas City is mathematically eliminated from winning the AFC West. Their postseason odds dropped by 13.4 percentage points with this loss.
Cris Collinsworth: “The faces of champions are really struggling to comprehend what is happening to this football season… [Tonight] was a breakdown across the board of the people that have made this franchise great over the past decade.” :football::studio_microphone: #NFL #SNF pic.twitter.com/oW5oW42RGX
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) December 8, 2025
In comparison, with the win over the Chiefs, Houston now has an 86.1% chance to make the playoffs. Given the injury to Daniel Jones, the Texans now have a real shot at making the playoffs over the Indianapolis Colts.
As Kansas City’s playoff chances fade, the NFL world is staring at a scenario that once seemed unthinkable: the Chiefs missing the postseason for the first time since 2014. It would also mark the first time in Mahomes’ career that he finishes a season short of the playoffs, a dramatic reversal from the expectations that surrounded this team back in September.
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This unexpected downturn has mirrored a broader trend across the AFC, where traditional contenders like the Bengals (4–9) and Ravens (6–7) have also stumbled. Meanwhile, the Patriots and the Broncos sit atop the conference at 11–2.
The Chiefs are not mathematically out, and Mahomes has built a reputation on the improbable, but time is running out. Even if Kansas City plays perfect football from here on out, that might not be enough to get them into the playoffs.
Chiefs’ Remaining Schedule
The Chiefs have these fixtures remaining on their schedule:
- Week 15: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 16: at Tennessee Titans
- Week 17: vs. Denver Broncos
- Week 18: at Las Vegas Raiders
According to PFSN analytics, the Chiefs have the sixth-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, and a win against the Texans would have put them in a good spot to make the playoffs.
Unfortunately, they now find themselves in a tough spot, and General Manager Brett Veach will be required to make significant changes in the summer.